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ANALISIS-
Tras rescate de AIG, Fed tendría que salvar a otros
miércoles 17 de septiembre de 2008 12:26 GY
Por Emily Kaiser
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Con su jugada de 85.000 millones de dólares, la Reserva Federal podría haber borrado la credibilidad que había ganado al resistir los pedidos de rescate de Lehman Brothers, y además abrió las puertas a que una gran cantidad de compañías vayan a pedirle fondos.
Al ofrecer un enorme crédito el martes a American International Group, sólo dos días después de rehusarse a usar dineros públicos para salvar de la quiebra a Lehman Brothers, el banco central también generó fuertes interrogantes sobre cómo fue exactamente que determinó que una empresa era demasiado grande para caer, mientras que la otra, no.
La Fed comprometió 29.000 millones de dólares para facilitar la venta de Bear Stearns a JPMorgan en marzo, además de 100.000 millones de dólares que ofreció tanto a Fannie Mae como al otro gigante hipotecario Freddie Mac, y 300.000 millones de dólares para la Autoridad Federal de la Vivienda.
Sumando a eso el préstamo de 85.000 millones de dólares para la aseguradora AIG y varios otros rescates y créditos, los contribuyentes podrían tener que afrontar más de 900.000 millones de dólares.
"Ellos (las autoridades económicas) hicieron creer que estaban poniendo un límite con Lehman Brothers pero ahora, dos días después, están haciendo otro rescate," dijo Nouriel Roubini, un profesor de la Escuela de Negocios Stern de la Universidad de Nueva York.
"Esencialmente, estamos continuando un sistema donde se privatizan las ganancias y se socializan las pérdidas," dijo Roubini, agregando que las automotrices, las aerolíneas y otras empresas en problemas sin duda también pedirían ayuda al Gobierno.
El Gobierno enfrentaba fuertes presiones para ayudar a AIG por las preocupaciones de que su colapso pudiera perjudicar a miles de compañías en todo el mundo y provocar un caos en el mercado de seguros de incumplimiento de pagos, que mueve 62 billones de dólares, y donde AIG tiene fuerte presencia.
Muchos en Wall Street estaban reclamando un rescate desde la mañana del martes, y los precios de las acciones de AIG oscilaron bruscamente a lo largo del día en medio de una ola de rumores sobre un rescate del Gobierno.
Pero Roubini dijo que en lugar de entregar dinero a firmas que hicieron malas apuestas, lo que podría alentar aún más la conducta riesgosa si las empresas creen que tienen una red de seguridad especial, el Gobierno debería comprar hipotecas y modificar sus términos, para que las familias no queden enterradas bajo pesadas deudas.
Ciertamente, la Fed estableció condiciones para su acuerdo de financiamiento de AIG. El préstamo tiene una tasa de interés alta, el Gobierno puede vetar los pagos de dividendos y se prevé que AIG venda activos en los próximos dos años para cancelar la deuda. Además, la alta gerencia será reemplazada.
Pero el banco central también siguió un patrón establecido con Bear Stearns en marzo, que repitió con Fannie y Freddie este mes, consistente en diluir a los accionistas y al mismo tiempo proteger a los acreedores.
Algunos economistas advertían que los inversores se habían adaptado a este patrón y ahora estaban apostando a futuros rescates, vendiendo acciones y comprando bonos de firmas en problemas. Eso produce caídas de los precios de las acciones, que pueden agudizar sus dificultades.
"Si el mensaje es que cada vez que aparece algo así, van a diluir a los accionistas y favorecer a los tenedores de bonos, eso es una especie de riesgo jovenlandesal," dijo Michael Feroli, economista de JPMorgan en Nueva York.
Los funcionarios de la Fed dijeron que tenían que actuar debido a la gran participación de AIG en los mercados financieros. Por medio de sus negocios de seguros y manejo de riesgo y activos, AIG tenía operaciones con miles de compañías en todo el mundo, por lo que una bancarrota hubiera tenido enormes repercusiones globales.
(Editado en Español por Gabriel Burin)
SEPTEMBER 18, 2008
Mounting antiestéticars Shake World Markets
As Banking Giants Rush to Find Buyers
By TOM LAURICELLA, LIZ RAPPAPORT and ANNELENA LOBB
antiestéticar coursed through the U.S. financial system on Wednesday, as hope for a resolution to the year-old credit crisis faded.
Stocks tumbled, concern grew about which financial firm would fall next, and investors rushed toward the safe haven of government bonds in the wake of the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and the crisis at insurer American International Group.
A trader rubs his eyes as he works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Wall Street stumbled again Wednesday, with anxieties about the financial system still running high even after the government bailed out insurer AIG.] Associated Press
A trader rubs his eyes as he works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Wall Street stumbled again Wednesday, with anxieties about the financial system still running high even after the government bailed out insurer AIG.
The market turmoil is doing more than inflicting losses on investors. Borrowing costs for U.S. companies have skyrocketed, and the debt markets have become nearly inaccessible to all but the most creditworthy borrowers.
The desperation was especially striking in the market for U.S. government debt, long considered the safest of investments. At one point during the day, investors were willing to pay more for one-month Treasurys than they could expect to get back when the bonds matured. Some investors, in essence, had decided that a small but known loss was better than the uncertainty connected to any other type of investment.
That's never happened before. In a special government auction on Wednesday, demand ran so high that the Treasury Department sold $40 billion in bills, far beyond what it needed to cover the government's obligations.
"We've seen crisis. We've seen recession. But we've not seen the core of the financial system shaken like this," says Joseph Balestrino, a portfolio manager at Federated Investors. "It's just crazy."
A 449-point selloff took the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its lowest level in almost three years, leaving it 23% below where it stood a year ago. Volume on the New York Stock Exchange was the second highest in history, falling just shy of the record set on Tuesday. The VIX, a widely watched measure of market volatility that is often referred to as the "antiestéticar index," shot up to its highest level since late 2002.
In Europe, stock markets lost roughly 2% of their value. In Russia, the scene of recent massive declines, trading on the country's major exchanges was halted for the second day in a row, this time only an hour and a half into the session. Gold prices rose 9% to $846.60 an ounce amid the global turmoil.
"Forget about retail investors, all the pros are scared," says one broker. "People have no idea where to put their money."
For now, "if you have cash, you're going to put it in the short-term, most liquid stuff you can," says Steve Van Order, fixed-income strategist for Calvert Asset Management.
Adding to the antiestéticar was a loss in a prominent money-market fund, the Reserve Primary Fund, which held Lehman Brothers debt. It was the first time since 1994 that such a fund, which is supposed to be as safe as a bank account, had lost money. The loss was made worse by a run on the fund. Over two days, investors pulled more than half of their assets from the fund, once valued at $64 billion.
"This is a panic situation" in the bond markets, says Charles Comiskey, head of U.S. government-bond trading in New York at HSBC Securities USA Inc.
Riskier assets were sold off. Yields on bonds issued by financial companies hit a record high of about six percentage points above U.S. Treasurys. In the market for credit-default swaps -- essentially insurance against default on assets tied to corporate debt and mortgage securities -- antiestéticars increased on Wednesday about whether counterparties would be able to honor their agreements. Investors tried to reduce their exposures to two more big players in the market, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. That sent the cost of protection on both Wall Street firms soaring to new highs.
In the stock market, the pressure on financial firms continued, with Morgan Stanley stock dropping 26% and Goldman Sachs shares losing 19%.
Investors say the government takeover of AIG and Lehman's bankruptcy are evidence that the situation is grimmer than all but the most pessimistic had expected. Problems have spread from complex debt markets tied directly to the housing market into plain-vanilla corporate bonds.
"Another front is opening," says Ajay Rajadhyaksha, head of fixed-income research at Barclays Capital.
Some antiestéticar that the dwindling ranks of investment banks, coming at a time when commercial banks are pulling back on their own use of capital, will prolong the credit crunch.
"It's unclear who is going to be a credit provider going forward, and if having fewer credit providers means higher costs of borrowing going forward," says Basil Williams, chief executive of hedge-fund managers Concordia Advisors.
Ordinarily, bondholders are better protected from losses than stock investors. But the events of the past two weeks have shown that they are vulnerable, too. The Federal Reserve's rescue of AIG doesn't protect the company's bondholders. That's because the deal, which consists of a high-priced loan to the company from the government, requires AIG to pay the Treasury before current bondholders. If AIG can't raise enough cash by selling assets, bondholders won't be fully repaid.
As a result, despite the Fed lifeline, some AIG debt is changing hands at just 40 cents on the dollar, less than half of the price one week ago. Now that Lehman has defaulted on its debt, its senior bonds are worth as little as 17 cents on the dollar, traders say.
That's spilled over to other financial names seen as under stress. Bonds of Morgan Stanley are trading at around 60 cents on the dollar. Goldman Sachs's bonds are trading at prices in the range of 70 cents on the dollar.
As the bond prices dropped, their yields rose. The spread between yields on corporate bonds and safe U.S. Treasurys have blown out to the widest levels traders have seen in years. On Wednesday, yields on investment-grade corporate bonds were more than four percentage points higher than comparable Treasury bonds, according to Merrill Lynch. Junk bonds ended the day more than nine percentage points over Treasurys, approaching the 2002 high of 10.6 percentage points, according to Merrill.
Short-term debt markets, where companies borrow overnight or in periods up to one year, have dried up. The money-market fund managers who normally buy such short-term debt have suffered losses on their holdings of debt in Lehman Brothers and other financial institutions.
If companies can't borrow in the short-term debt markets, they may be forced to draw down on their revolving credit lines, yet another drain on banks' dwindling capital.
The Lehman bankruptcy also pressured the market for leveraged loans, which are used by private-equity firms to finance buyouts. When the firm attempted to sell some of its loan holdings earlier this week, prices dropped toward 85 cents on the dollar, according to Standard & Poor's Leveraged Commentary & Data.
The damage has gone beyond banks and brokerages. Ford Motor Credit Co., the finance arm of Ford Motor Co., paid 7.5% for overnight borrowings on Wednesday, says one trader. Typically, the rate for such debt would be about one-quarter percentage point over the federal-funds rate, which is currently 2%, he says. Even for companies considered of the safest credit quality, the cost of overnight debt is soaring. General Electric Co. was forced to pay 3.5% for overnight borrowing on Wednesday, the trader says. In normal times, GE, which has the highest debt rating, would have to pay the equivalent of the federal funds rate.
"There's no evident catalyst for ending the pain," says Guy Lebas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery in Philadelphia.