En un artículo sobre DAC, en Seeking Alpha, Nick hace este comentario super bullish:
Personally, I see the whole shipping business entering a structural supercycle on shipbuilding needs finally overwhelming shipbuilding capacity as the shipbuilders reach the bottom of their cycle in 2022. Unprecedented levels of new shipbuilding capacity that doesn't yet exist will be needed to replace carbon inefficient ships from the last boom as well as keep up with still robust trade growth and ramping global infrastructure programs. An 18% orderbook in containers will be far less impactful than many think and categorically does not address a complete lack of new supply of ships under 12,000 TEU (DACs entire fleet). The "this has gone so high that it must miccionan revert" logic has been the same logic that has lead to so any wildly incorrect top calls over the past year.
Yes, there will be a top at some point likely in or before 2023 but this will have limited impact on DAC that is signing 3-5 year contracts on all ships coming up for charter and will have very limited charter rolls in 2023-2024. In the mini cycles of the past decade rates crashed after periods of profitability due to structural oversupply of shipbuilding capacity. Not this time, as we are back to a structural UNDERSUPPLY of shipbuilding capacity. Everyone is afraid to make the bold call and say that this time is different and we are back to the structural shipbuilding imbalance of the early 2000s but that is EXACTLY what I am suggesting.
By 2025 we will be feeling the full force of the impending carbon regulations and scrapping of ships from the last boom. Rates on ships <12,000 TEU will settle much higher than is being priced in for DAC currently and generally at profitable levels on very limited new supply and an extremely old fleet for these sizes. If anything the next decade will be characterized by very short and acute periods of losses for those oldest ships in the fleet out trading past their usual economic life which will lead to rapid scrapping and rebalancing to profitable levels for ships <20 years old.
DAC at $200? EASY. I'm not afraid to make a bold call. This is where a giant chunk of my money sits.
splash247.com
