Puigdemont threatens to back PP and topple the government

Puigdemont opens the door to a motion of no confidence against Sánchez

A government supported by seven votes can be toppled by those same seven votes. Carles Puigdemont verbalized in Brussels what his parliamentary arithmetic already knew: if there are no sufficient advances in agreements with the PSOE, Junts will add its votes to those of the People's Party (PP) to block laws like the state budget. The announcement came with the legislature just peine in Congress, in November 2023, and sounded less like a bluff than a reminder of where the key lies.

The warning came at the gala where the media Politico revealed its list of the 28 most influential personalities in Europe in 2024, where the former Catalan president ranks second among the nine «disruptors». From there came the phrases on the budget, the consultative referendum, and the lawfare. None were new. This time they came with a name and surname.

What Puigdemont said and to whom he said it

In his conversation with the president of the European People's Party and leader of that group in the European Parliament, Manfred Weber, Puigdemont went further than in public: he even proposed an agreement with the PP to overthrow Pedro Sánchez mid-term through a motion of no confidence. The condition, according to the account of that conversation, is that both parties agree on an independent Prime Minister to replace Sánchez.

And here appears the political price. «For that, the PP must take a step towards us. They cannot continue treating me like a terrorist», he stated. He added that his only crime was placing ballot boxes in the October 1 referendum, a claim of his, not an accredited fact. The line was completed by his party colleague and MEP Toni Comín, who warned that the PSOE must be prepared to have many unpleasant surprises in Congress if there are no agreements, and anticipated a legislature of tough negotiations.

Can a motion of no confidence be presented without a candidate?

No, and that detail disables much of the bluff. A motion of no confidence is not a vote of punishment against the Government: it requires an alternative candidate willing to undergo investiture, and that name does not exist today. It is also important not to lose sight of the other extreme: once the motion is presented, the President cannot dissolve the Cortes. These are the two rules that turn the announcement into a double-edged sword, and both were on the table as soon as the threat became known.

The calculation is easy to read. In the debate itself, it is repeated that the numbers do not add up to any alternative majority except improbable coalitions, and no one seems close to agreeing on a name for La Moncloa. Without a candidate, the motion is a headline. With a candidate, it would be a crisis. And no one has taken the first step.

Lawfare and the horse's head from The Godfather

The cultural reference of the week was made by Puigdemont himself when defending the term lawfare included in the agreement with the PSOE, heavily criticized by judges' associations. «The term is like the horse's head in 'The Godfather': it is a warning that we are speaking seriously», he said. In other words, the concept does not describe a practice: it warns of what can happen if it is maintained.

In the same vein, Puigdemont stated before Weber that a consultative referendum on independence was possible if agreed politically, and Comín insisted that that consultation fits within the Spanish Constitution. These are partial claims, questioned by the EPP, whose leader, Manfred Weber, criticized the agreement with the PSOE.

Feijóo speaks out before anyone asks

The PP leader did not long close the door with a phrase: «Mr. Puigdemont does not name me Prime Minister». The response has internal logic and an obvious tactical cost: by dismissing it so quickly, Feijóo renounces maintaining the intrigue that would have made his adversary nervous. Some read it as coherence and others as a gift opportunity.

One of the comments in the thread recalls another move: the proposal that, according to that account, Feijóo had put on the table to Sánchez, two years of government for each with the aim of cutting off the blackmail by territorial parties at the root. Solomonic in theory, unviable in practice when neither is willing to hand over the helm mid-voyage.

The electoral reform no one touches

The uncomfortable question hovers over the entire function: if PSOE and PP are so fed up with depending on the independentist parties, why not change the rules. A French-style second round is enough, it is argued, for Catalan votes to cease being indispensable for governing. The answer given from outside is that both benefit from the current balance: each awaits their turn for blackmail and neither wants to open a melon that might explode in their own stronghold.

Meanwhile, the script repeats with different actors. Each threat is a bluff, each bluff a tug-of-war, and each tug-of-war a headline. The citizen watches the show, checks that public accounts are decided in offices they cannot enter, and waits for their turn, which always arrives in the form of a tax or a cut.

What remains to be seen

Puigdemont has registered nothing. Not a motion, not a candidate, not a document. He has only spoken aloud what his seven votes already knew and set a date for the first bill: the budget. If the amnesty law advances and things calm down, the threat will be archived as an episode of posturing. If it gets stuck, the PSOE will have to choose between swallowing or calling a vote.

How long does it take for announced blackmail to become exercised blackmail?