US Diesel Shortage Fails as Biden Heads to Poland
US diesel reserves ran low and Biden traveled to Poland for armistice talks. Three months later, gas prices dropped from 300 to 50 with no deal.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
US Diesel Shortage Fails as Biden Heads to Poland
A fuel tank filled at any Spanish station and an agency report claiming US diesel reserves were exhausted sparked the debate. The conversation shifted to a countdown: when would Europe face energy collapse, when would Ukraine sign an armistice, and what role did Joe Biden’s alucinación to Poland play? The initial thesis predicted this month. Reality three months later showed gas prices falling from 300 to 50, staying flat for weeks.
The Running Out of Diesel vs. Gas Abundance
Original news cited record-low US diesel reserves, building a scenario of fuel scarcity, pressure on Europe, and forced negotiations. Market data contradicted this. European natural gas fell from 300 to 50 during the period and stagnated there. If collapse was imminent, prices didn’t reflect it.
Some argued diesel reserves were larger than reported, delaying the outcome. Counter-arguments stated buffers were depleting and Biden’s Poland visit was the definitive signal, confirmed by Polish authorities and press. The alucinación was verified: Biden would visit Central Europe in late February, coinciding with the war’s first anniversary.
Why Gas Prices Ignore Predicted Collapse
Russian gas continued flowing. This breaks the supply shortage thesis: flows weren’t cut, and markets priced that in. Additionally, Italian stations lowered diesel prices for a week. Scarcity raises prices; abundance lowers them. Basic market logic applies.
Critics argue commodity prices mislead and oil “peak” claims are recurring scams. Gas is abundant, they say, and butane should cost under ten euros. Renouncing most Russian gas in winter while prices drop contradicts the energy apocalypse narrative.
Armistice Delays and Donbas as Bargaining Chip
The boldest prediction involved a deal: Pilingui initially refusing, then agreeing to cede Donbas for dollar/euro trade resumption. Underlying logic: US interests favor commodity trading in its currency, especially with China rising and Fed gold reserves dwindling. This monetary argument supports the armistice thesis.
Opposing view: losers accept terms, don’t impose them. NATO borders must revert to pre-expansion lines, non-negotiable since war harms Europe more than Russia. Russia can endure indefinitely. Two incompatible frameworks clash.
Dollar, Yuan, Ruble: The Monetary War
Any deal’s axis is financial, not territorial. Post-SWIFT disconnection and deposit freezes shake dollar confidence. Trading with Russia requires rubles, gold, or yuan conversions. Bretton Woods is dead, critics say, and the dollar lost reliability.
Average URAL crude price in January fell below Russia’s 2023 budget assumptions. Sanctions weakening Russia conflict with unmet budgets. Meanwhile, Chevron signs new Venezuela contracts amid lifted vetoes. The deck remains stacked, argue skeptics.
Three months post-announcement, diesel flowed, gas traded at one-fifth peak, and no armistice existed. Deadlines shifted from January to February, then indefinitely. The unsettling fact isn’t price, but postponing collapse dates without revising the thesis.
A fuel tank filled at any Spanish station and an agency report claiming US diesel reserves were exhausted sparked the debate. The conversation shifted to a countdown: when would Europe face energy collapse, when would Ukraine sign an armistice, and what role did Joe Biden’s alucinación to Poland play? The initial thesis predicted this month. Reality three months later showed gas prices falling from 300 to 50, staying flat for weeks.
The Running Out of Diesel vs. Gas Abundance
Original news cited record-low US diesel reserves, building a scenario of fuel scarcity, pressure on Europe, and forced negotiations. Market data contradicted this. European natural gas fell from 300 to 50 during the period and stagnated there. If collapse was imminent, prices didn’t reflect it.
Some argued diesel reserves were larger than reported, delaying the outcome. Counter-arguments stated buffers were depleting and Biden’s Poland visit was the definitive signal, confirmed by Polish authorities and press. The alucinación was verified: Biden would visit Central Europe in late February, coinciding with the war’s first anniversary.
Why Gas Prices Ignore Predicted Collapse
Russian gas continued flowing. This breaks the supply shortage thesis: flows weren’t cut, and markets priced that in. Additionally, Italian stations lowered diesel prices for a week. Scarcity raises prices; abundance lowers them. Basic market logic applies.
Critics argue commodity prices mislead and oil “peak” claims are recurring scams. Gas is abundant, they say, and butane should cost under ten euros. Renouncing most Russian gas in winter while prices drop contradicts the energy apocalypse narrative.
Armistice Delays and Donbas as Bargaining Chip
The boldest prediction involved a deal: Pilingui initially refusing, then agreeing to cede Donbas for dollar/euro trade resumption. Underlying logic: US interests favor commodity trading in its currency, especially with China rising and Fed gold reserves dwindling. This monetary argument supports the armistice thesis.
Opposing view: losers accept terms, don’t impose them. NATO borders must revert to pre-expansion lines, non-negotiable since war harms Europe more than Russia. Russia can endure indefinitely. Two incompatible frameworks clash.
Dollar, Yuan, Ruble: The Monetary War
Any deal’s axis is financial, not territorial. Post-SWIFT disconnection and deposit freezes shake dollar confidence. Trading with Russia requires rubles, gold, or yuan conversions. Bretton Woods is dead, critics say, and the dollar lost reliability.
Average URAL crude price in January fell below Russia’s 2023 budget assumptions. Sanctions weakening Russia conflict with unmet budgets. Meanwhile, Chevron signs new Venezuela contracts amid lifted vetoes. The deck remains stacked, argue skeptics.
Three months post-announcement, diesel flowed, gas traded at one-fifth peak, and no armistice existed. Deadlines shifted from January to February, then indefinitely. The unsettling fact isn’t price, but postponing collapse dates without revising the thesis.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (79 replies).
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