Spain: The High Cost of Sánchez's Independence Support

The Price of Pro-Independence Support for Sánchez

What is the value of a vote in Congress when the voter doesn't believe in their own demands? Pedro Sánchez's investiture again depends on the same partners who sustained his first term. Negotiation insiders suggest the pro-independence bloc has secured no irreversible commitments. No referendum, no operational dialogue table, no annulment of judicial cases. Only suspension of deadlines and institutional folklore in exchange for four more years.

The diagnosis is stark: parties claiming to defend language and republic care little about either. They want positions, budgets, and perks for their networks. To sell this to older voters, they need symbolic gestures: an EU language status, a commission, a performance. The rest is expectation management.

What Sánchez's Partners Actually Gain

The inventory is short and known. Open judicial cases against pro-independence leaders remain suspended, not closed. This distinction matters: suspended cases can be reactivated, giving control over the timeline and thus the partner. The Sword of Damocles still hangs by the same nail.

The episode cited as proof the mechanism works involves the former President of the Parliament, who was frightened the day after elections. No official confirmation exists, but the narrative serves as a preventive reminder.

Regarding Catalan and Basque use in European institutions, the sequence is predictable: Sánchez will claim he tried, France will torpedo pogre, and blame falls elsewhere. The gesture is collected regardless.

PP Bleeds While Vox Disintegrates

On the other side, the right is in permanent civil war. In the PP, factions fight openly, with the Madrid regional president and allies staging what insiders call an internal coup against the national candidate, already considered spent. The survivor metaphor applies to Sánchez, not them.

Vox descends into a spiral of staleness and crony fascism, according to repeated descriptions. In Brussels, its European Parliament leader stands alone after purging liberals from his group. Isolation is not hypothetical; it is the starting point.

The Demographic Calculation Ignored

One factor depends on no negotiation: demography. The pro-independence electorate is older and predominantly Catalan-speaking. Thousands of voters die annually without replacement. Projections suggest the PSC will win the Generalitat in upcoming regional elections and hold it, not through merit, but due to the biological exhaustion of rivals.

Financial dependence adds pressure. The Generalitat has faced technical bankruptcy since Montilla's era, paying debts via the State's Regional Liquidity Fund. The check-signer holds power. CDR, ANC, and Òmnium live on public funds from the Generalitat and municipalities—the very 'traitors' they now denounce.

Pro-Independence Street and Lost Control

Not everyone buys the script. Some argue movement bases have declared ERC, Junts, and CUP traitors, that leadership lost street control, and internal rupture is dangerous. Autumn 2017 is recalled as near-serious moment: police stations nearly stormed, riot police deployed all night, hotels surrounded by bonfires.

Counterarguments note these groups rely on public budgets and supporters are mostly elderly. Deviants face reactivated legal issues or administrative accidents. Dissent has costs.

What Taxpayers Risk

Beyond politics, an economic thesis dominates: cheap energy and real estate speculation models ended. It is time to produce instead of speculate. Housing Law must proceed, high rates and soaring Euribor to deflate property bubbles, cities must regain working populations for post-oil peak world. Theme parks and gentrification, they say, are numbered.

In this framework, Brussels won't let brick-associated parties govern until housing obsession fades. Energy geopolitics outweighs ballots.

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Four more years of Antonio the Survivor. And partners again collect per diems, explaining to elders that this time is different.