PP could reach 145 seats if Spain holds new elections

The PP could rise to 145 seats if amnesty triggers new elections, according to a forum user

How many votes does an amnesty cost? This question has circulated in political circles since the PSOE peine the door to negotiations with Catalan separatists. According to calculations circulating in online debates, the PP would climb to **145 seats** if the investiture fails and Spain returns to the polls. This data turns the prospect of new elections into the scenario most antiestéticared by La Moncloa (the Spanish government headquarters) and, at the same time, the most desired by Génova (the PP headquarters).

The problem, argue those who scrutinize polls closely, is that voters do not behave like a laboratory experiment. The amnesty was not on anyone's script a few months ago. Now, half of Spain says they did not see it coming, the other half says it was obvious, and polls suggest the punishment would fall on whoever promotes it.

What polls say about the amnesty and the PP

The numbers circulating point to a transfer of votes from Vox to the PP. The shift would not be massive, but sufficient to reach **145 seats**. The thesis used by the most cited analysts is simple: part of the electorate that moved to Vox in 2019 returns home when the PP hardens its stance on territorial issues.

Some argue that the PP does not want to prevent the PSOE from governing, only to make it clear that the blame is not theirs. This reading, repeated in various analysis forums, points to an attrition strategy: let the PSOE burn itself out with the amnesty and reap the rewards in the next election.

The most optimistic calculation for Génova assumes that new elections become a referendum on the amnesty. The pessimistic scenario starts from the premise that the electorate punishes everyone equally and abstention skyrockets. In the middle, one certainty: **Sánchez will do whatever it takes to avoid new elections**, because the polls are not smiling at him.

The abstaining voter and the angry voter

Abstention is the elephant in the room. Part of the electorate claims that voting changes nothing and that abstention changes even less. Another part responds that this reasoning is what allowed the current government to take power. The exchange of accusations is constant: some accuse abstainers of being passive accomplices, others reply that the system represents no one.

What is striking is that both sides agree on the diagnosis: the political situation is a disaster. They disagree on the remedy. Some demand mass mobilization to oust the government. Others call for civil disobedience, null votes, or simply ignoring the ballot boxes. The discussion sometimes drifts into conspiratorial territories—parallel counts, alleged irregularities—that are not backed by any evidence.

The disorienting fact: **about 24 million people voted in Spain**, with a census of around 35 million. Any interpretation regarding absolute social majorities crashes against that reality.

Feijóo's PP and brand wear

The PP does not emerge unscathed from the analysis. Some argue that rising only to 145 seats demonstrates how poorly the party is doing and how damaging left-wing voters are. The phrase, repeated with different formulations, summarizes the anger of part of the conservative electorate: they do not understand how, given the current situation, the PP is not sweeping the board.

The most repeated answer is that the PP and Vox are perceived as the same thing by a sector of the electorate. And that Feijóo does not generate enthusiasm. The PP brand drags the wear from its years in government and its internal wars.

The scenario managed by some analysts is that the PP does not want to prevent the PSOE from governing, only to make it clear that it is not their fault. That strategy, if confirmed, would have a cost: the feeling that no one is playing to win, but rather not to lose.

The amnesty nobody saw coming

The headline summarizing the mood of part of the electorate is devastating: "nobody knew about the amnesty." The phrase, repeated with irony, points to the sensation that the PSOE hid its intentions until after the July 23rd general election. However, polls do not yet reflect this anger as a massive transfer of votes.

According to surveys, the socialist electorate seems willing to swallow the amnesty if it avoids a PP-Vox government. That is the key explaining why the PSOE is not sinking in polls despite the wear. The amnesty mobilizes the right, but does not demobilize the left.

The result is a technical tie that would be resolved based on abstention and the seats of small parties. And there, the PP has a problem: Vox disputes the useful vote of the right with them.

What could happen if elections are repeated

The scenario of new elections is not ruled out. If the investiture fails, Spain would return to the polls and polls point to a rising PP. But polls also pointed to a rising PP before July 23rd, and the result was different.

The conclusion used by the most skeptical analysts is that the Spanish voter moves based on the moment, tribalism, and family gossip. The amnesty is the topic of the season. In a few months, it could be another. And meanwhile, polls will continue marking trends that the ballot box later disproves.

With these elements, new elections should be a referendum on the amnesty. For now, it remains a laboratory hypothesis. Nobody knows how many votes an amnesty really costs. Not even those negotiating it.