Amnesty Yes, Referendum No: The Price of Investing Sánchez

Amnesty yes, referendum no: the arithmetic of the investiture

The investiture will pass. The independence referendum will not. That is the prevailing thesis since Feijóo called for elections and ERC and Junts placed the consultation as the price for supporting Pedro Sánchez. Amnesty, however, is taken for granted: some argue it was agreed months ago and only technical details remain. The rest—the consultation, timelines, guarantees—is the paraphernalia with which each side saves face before its electorate.

What each party demands to move forward

The distribution of demands is simple. The PP asks for new elections. ERC and Junts want a referendum and amnesty in exchange for investing Sánchez. The PSOE responds no to the consultation and remains silent on amnesty, which is exactly what its partners want to hear. In between, there is a caretaker government with no expiration date.

The underlying suspicion is not ideological, but procedural: the executive would concede anything rather than lose power. Just look at the most repeated joke these days: if a needy MP demanded a ministry for his dog, the dog would end up in the Council of Ministers. It is an exaggeration, yes, but it accurately portrays the perception that the red line moves with the calendar.

Is an independence referendum legal in Spain?

No, if it is binding. And if it is not, it serves no purpose. That is the dead end described in the most repeated analysis: a consultation that obligates something does not fit within the current constitutional framework, while a merely consultative consultation obligates no one and ends up being worse than a poll, as only the convinced vote and the rest do not bother.

There is a second layer to the argument, more political. Calling the consultation would be read as a surrender of sovereignty: it would be granting part of the population the power to decide on part of the territory, which in legal and political terms is directly described as a rupture of the nation. Hence, neither ERC nor Junts have managed to get the PSOE to say the word.

Yes, however, a recurring warning appears: if that is considered a true red line, then the consequence is returning to the polls. No one truly believes that threat will be executed.

Amnesty closed since August

Amnesty has long ceased to be a hypothesis. According to the circulating version, the pact was tied in August and only "technical aspects" remained. The fine print, however, poses the usual problem: how a general pardon fits into a Constitution that expressly prohibits it, according to the most cited argument.

The contrast with the past is uncomfortable for the Government. In July 2021, the then socialist economic spokesperson, María Jesús Montero, stated at an event in Seville that "as this Government defends and respects the Constitution, there will be neither referendum nor amnesty". That video circulates again every time the word is mentioned.

The underlying reasoning of those supporting the pact is that ERC and Junts already sold their electorate something impossible and have no room to return with empty hands. They are given amnesty—the payable part—and denied the referendum, which is the non-negotiable part. The problem is that this leaves open the question of what they will ask next time.

The electoral calculation that halts independence

Here lies the practical reason why the consultation does not come about. The PSOE has representation across the entire national territory, and the PSC is one of its main reservoirs of MPs: without Catalonia, the arithmetic falls apart. The PP, meanwhile, barely gains votes in that community.

Hence, the prediction with the most strength among skeptics: if there are finally new elections, the punishment would fall on Sumar, not the PSOE. The bill would be paid by the minority partner of the coalition, with a transfer of votes that would strengthen the major party and leave Sánchez invested after Christmas, with fewer partners and more margin.

Another matter is the wear and tear: each concession is digested worse in the provinces where the PSOE competes with the PP and Vox. It is the invisible cost of sustaining the legislature via the Catalan route.

Who pays the bill and with what guarantees

Money is the other half of the trade, and no one hides it. The coldest thesis is that the separatists do not seek a republic, they seek funding: what they want is money, and the rest is rhetoric. Amnesty would be the first payment; the rest would come via budgetary and competence channels, with tax management as the currency.

Distrust runs in both directions. One sector warns that promising everything guarantees nothing, because this executive has the habit of leaving promises half-finished and referring to "there was no time, next time." If that happens, the separatist parties will remain in the position they dominate best: that of victims of others' non-compliance.

And there remains the factor that worries everyone: if amnesty passes, an ex-president without disqualification could return to the front line and run as a candidate, with the legislature turned into a powder keg. It is the warning that, according to this reading, could weigh more than any legal clause.

With these elements, the most probable scenario remains investiture with amnesty and no consultation. But if this legislature has taught us anything, it is that red lines last only as long as an investiture. I would not bet too much that the next one will not move.