Gold stuck at 0.382 as bitcoin takes the spotlight

Gold gets stuck at 0.382 and gives up the spotlight to bitcoin

The price of gold is resting on the 0.382 retracement and that's where it stays. On the monthly chart, it builds a slow, boring sideways movement that timidly tries to resemble a head-and-shoulders pattern and keeps postponing its decision. While the metal dozes off, bitcoin hovers around 6.000 dollars —as mentioned in the thread— and steals the whole narrative. In October 2017, a temporary space for precious metals analysis captures that pulse: gold bores, cryptocurrencies excite, and those who have been buying ounces for years wonder if their thesis still holds.

The 0.382 support holds, but the pattern deflates

The 0.382 level separates a healthy correction from a serious problem. That's where the price is stuck, without decision. The figure drawn on the monthly chart refers to the classic head-and-shoulders, the one that usually announces reversals; but the right shoulder stretches, the slope relaxes, and the breakout is delayed more than theory dictates. The pattern fails due to pure delay.

If that attempt fails, the range opens in two uncomfortable directions: a violent pullback to the very 0.382 zone already lost, or a visit to 0.54 and even 0.618 of the previous rise. It's not a catastrophic scenario. It's simply the most likely when a structure loses its support point.

How far can the gold price fall?

In the thread, two thresholds are set. According to the forecast presented there, the bullish scenario remains as long as the 1.250 dollars per ounce are not lost, and the bearish one activates if 1.050 is broken. Between both, range: time to stay on the sidelines and not touch anything. The spread is not narrow, and that's exactly the problem.

The most pessimistic calculation circulating points to 700-800 dollars, trinc by a sharp rebound once the exhausted have sold. The counter-objection is common sense: at those prices no one sells, and anyone wanting to buy on the street couldn't either. Markets, however, don't work by logic. It's proven by the fact that a virtual currency has reached 6.000 dollars.

Gold vs bitcoin: the uncomfortable comparison

Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak argued that bitcoin is better than gold and the dollar. His argument: the amount of bitcoins is fixed in advance and traditional currencies don't have that cap. The idea floats in the air and drags money. Of the 21 million units planned, it amounts to little among a world population of billions, an exercise in scarcity that many directly transfer to the ounce.

Against that, the gold bug response resorts to the old quip: an ounce of gold cannot be forked, nor duplicated, nor split into two that are still one ounce. The metal accumulates centuries of history. The token, minutes. And still the comparison doesn't cease, because bitcoin trades as gold dreamed of trading.

Germans buy gold and the press reports it

That Germans buy gold is not news; they've been doing it all their lives. What's striking is that a Spanish generalist media outlet publishes it, because that information hits the waterline of banks and confidence in the system. When a large-circulation newspaper talks about buying metals, something shifts in the narrative.

In that same wake, the forecasts of Jim Rickards circulate, placing the ounce at 10.000 dollars for early 2018. A target received with derision: it's not sustained by supply and demand, but by an eventual golden solution, a new Bretton Woods with a fixed gold price to reset debt. The uncomfortable detail is that whoever spreads that version usually sells gold. And whoever refutes it also sells it.

From physical ounce to pension plan

Contributing to a private pension plan is considered a scam here. The alternative that is repeated is to hold metals —gold, silver and, depending on mood, lead— and some asset that is hard to seize. The logic: the country is up to its neck in debt and part of that debt depends on private savings. The collection of ounces, on the other hand, doesn't appear on anyone's balance sheet.

It's a defensive reasoning, not speculative. Whoever buys to resell in three years is using the wrong instrument. The ingot doesn't yield income, doesn't pay coupons and isn't seen on screen. Its only promise is to remain the same gram when everything else changes sign.

The week closes with the metal in bearish sideways, without drama. And with a curiosity that sums up the matter better than any chart: at Indian airports, travelers trying to bring in gold powder hidden inside their bodies are stopped. Neither bitcoin, nor blockchain, nor contracts in yuan. The old ounce, secretly, keeps finding its way.