Gold: A Decade Waiting for Takeoff That's Always Late

Gold Has Been Stuck for a Decade as Debt Soars

How much does gold need to rise for those who bought it at $1,200 to stop looking at the charts with a pained expression? This question has been a recurring theme in the longest Spanish-language discussions about precious metals, and a clear answer remains elusive. In late 2016, with the Federal Reserve delaying interest rate hikes and much of the world convinced the financial system was on the verge of collapse, gold was trading around $1,270 an ounce. Months later, it was still there. The recurring diagnosis is uncomfortable: the metal does its job—not to disappoint—just when almost no one is paying attention.

Gold Price Evolution: A Stalemate Between the Metal and the Official Narrative

By the close of this fourth installment, gold stood at $1,275.80 per Troy ounce, and silver at $16.69. A year earlier, the metal had hovered around the $1,200 mark that Goldman Sachs had set as a short-term target, and industry veterans were already warning that central banks were behind every dip, buying and selling paper at will. "Whoever has the printing press makes the rules," summarized one participant, convinced that manipulating the metals market is a matter of seconds for the Fed.

The most repeated figure isn't a price, but a ratio: the gold/silver ratio of 1:77 was seen as a clear buy signal. Silver, on the other hand, showed a chart that many described as poor, with a risk of falling to $16.923 and, if that support broke, extending the decline to $16.042. No one promised quick returns. They did promise, however, that paper money would continue to be printed without restraint.

$45.3 Billion from the ECB and an Unprecedented Bond Bubble

The main bearish argument against gold wasn't gold itself. It was what central banks were doing. The ECB distributed €45.3 billion to banks via TLTRO2, and joint interventions by the Fed, the Bank of Japan, and Frankfurt had put trillions into circulation among a few hands. The conclusion drawn was that "the mother of all bubbles"—the bond bubble—was being fueled, with negative interest rates on sovereign debt.

Those who saw this picture didn't view gold as a bet, but as insurance. Holding fiat in a bank, it was argued, is worse than holding metal: money loses value due to inflation, and if the state's funding dries up, it can disappear. Metal, however, can be stored and requires no counterparty. This is the line that underpins the entire discussion, even when the price stubbornly refuses to confirm it.

Can Bitcoin Replace Gold?

Not everyone present saw eye to eye. For months, the debate about cryptocurrencies gained momentum, with Bitcoin leading the charge and some coins theoretically backed by gold promising to value an ounce at $77,000—a textbook fraud that the forum itself debunked by pointing out it only backed 10 milligrams of metal for $25. The underlying discussion was whether the digitalization of money would relegate gold to a sentimental corner.

There were responses for all tastes. Some argued that Bitcoin evokes no emotion, and since humans "are emotion," the metal would always have an advantage. Others countered that if you put an ounce of gold in someone's hand, they look pleased even if they don't know what it is. And the most skeptical warned that if things truly collapse, not even gold will save you: only chickpeas and lead. Apparently, those who have fewer certainties win.

The Comeback Operation: Who Buys Physical Gold and Why

When the debate tired of the price, it turned to those who truly move metal. Germany, the world's second-largest reserve holder, had been demanding the repatriation of some of its gold from abroad, and for a year, the operation was suspended without convincing explanations. The interpretation circulating was unsettling: the higher echelons already know that this gold may have evaporated. It was also noteworthy that the United States imported more gold than it exported, something that hadn't peine in years.

Against this backdrop, the fine print at home: transferring €150,000 from one bank to another cost 0.7%, about €1,050; requesting cash caused bank branch managers to panic. Several participants recounted how, with the Catalan crisis in the background, branches filled with people changing their account headquarters. Physical gold doesn't pay dividends, but it also doesn't ask permission to leave the house.

The Day Gold's Price Stopped Mattering

Towards the end, the topic got out of hand. The autumn of 2017 brought territorial politics into the conversation and completely displaced it. Discussions revolved around 6.4% of the territory, 18% of the population, 20% of GDP, and 25% of tourists, Banco Sabadell moving its registered office, and accounts fleeing to other entities. What had started as a corner to trinc the metal ended up as a battlefield of flags.

The result is a recognizable scene: at the moment of maximum uncertainty, when gold should have been the topic, there was hardly a metal-related post for days. The quote that closed the discussion summarizes half a year of disagreements: the person who created the thread said five years minimum and offered the same service to those arriving with €1,000 as to those arriving with millions.

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And so, a discussion of thousands of messages faded: with gold's price back where it started, the ratio at 1:77, and an argument about banks that was out of place. The metal, meanwhile, remained calm. As always.