Gold Hits $4,000 After Doubling, Texas Accepts It as Currency

Gold Corrects After Touching $4,100, Returns to $4,000

Does it still make sense to buy gold after its price has more than doubled? The ounce started the previous cycle at $1,450 and closed it around $4,100, with entries recorded at $4,106 USD/oz. From that peak, a correction has brought the metal back to the $4,000 zone without breaking the underlying trend, while silver remains above $50. The debate is no longer whether the rally was a bubble, but how much is left.

From $1,450 to $4,106: The Rally That Caught Everyone Off Guard

For months, the price rose so quickly that many entered late and paid dearly. When the first serious drop appeared, the narrative changed in hours: gold falling more than Bitcoin, oil and US bonds holding steady, the dollar firm. The uncomfortable picture of a safe haven ceasing to behave like one.

Some argue that the correction was evident by reading January's volatility and that there's nothing new under the sun: gold is back at $4,000 and silver remains above its historical threshold. The most optimistic calculation keeps the case for mining companies intact, which at these prices would continue to show excellent margins. The pessimistic scenario starts from the opposite: if the metal doesn't protect against inflation, the uncomfortable question is what asset remains.

Why Is Gold Rising Even If Rates Aren't Moving?

On the table is a repeated thesis: central banks cannot raise rates even if they announce it. The argument is that making debt more expensive would skyrocket payments on a stratospheric liability and send the economy to the canvas. Hence, that tactic of playing with expectations —tough speeches, zero actual hikes— which depresses prices without touching the cost of money.

Added to this is a staggering piece of data. According to a circulating calculation, China recorded a surplus of $1.2 trillion in 2025, equivalent to about 8,000 tons of gold. The United States, with a $900 billion deficit, would be left with almost no reserves. Spain, with a deficit of 66 billion, wouldn't make it either. The conclusion drawn: if balances were ever rebalanced against metal, the price per ounce would be nothing like the current one.

Texas, Missouri, and Florida Declare Gold Legal Tender

The most striking institutional move comes from the United States. Texas House Bill 1056, sponsored by state legislator Mark Dorazio, recognizes gold and silver as non-compulsory legal tender and opens the door to a digital infrastructure for metal-backed transactions. It's not an isolated case: Florida approved something similar, and Missouri's Constitutional Money Act has been in effect for a year, obligating the state administration itself to accept the electronic version for any payment.

The fine print is jarring. The text requires that the metal bear its weight and purity engraved, and in some cases, that there be no mark suggesting governmental minting, which excludes a large portion of coins minted by national mints. The question that arises: if Texas is the world's eighth-largest economy, why not demand in Spain that silver stop being subject to VAT, arguing it's a currency exchange and not a purchase of goods?

China Makes a Move: ATMs That Melt Gold and Commission-Free Banking

While the West discusses, China executes. Major banks have lowered the entry threshold for accumulating gold, extended hours, cut commissions to 0.2%, and exempted these operations from taxes to encourage the public. And on the streets, ATMs are already operating that accept jewelry, verify its purity with X-rays, melt it at over 1,000 degrees, and deposit the cash into an account in less than an hour.

Skepticism is reasonable: such a machine will be smart for the owner, not the customer. Everything points to a good hidden premium in the exchange rate applied. Nevertheless, the gesture matters: China is building infrastructure for the metal to circulate while Europe continues to debate whether it's a commodity or a currency.

Pledging Gold or Selling It: The Fine Print Nobody Tells You

Loans granted by pledging coins or jewelry as collateral are proliferating. The reality, upon closer inspection, is less romantic than advertised. Silver isn't worth it—too bulky—the term is around a year, they require an account with the institution if it exceeds 1,000 euros, and the nominal interest rate (TIN) and commissions are nowhere to be found on the website. Conditions typical of a payday loan, not an investment strategy.

For those who want to exit, there's a common tax trick: first sell the pieces bought cheaper to declare less capital gains. And an advantage of small coins over whole ounces: it's easier to find someone willing to pay 1,000 or 2,000 euros than 8,000 at once. Here, the FNMT (Spain's Royal Mint) has just released its silver exchange coin for 60 euros, when previous ones were released at 40, 20, and 12. The usual inflation, now in collectible format.

And a curiosity that has become tradition in these circles: there's an infallible homemade indicator consisting of someone announcing the crash just before every rebound. When that voice warns that it's collapsing, the market rises. It's of little use for trading and of much use for a laugh.

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With these ingredients, one would expect a stampede towards physical metal and queues at stores. There are none. The correction has convinced almost everyone that it remains a buying opportunity, which is usually a bad sign... or the best.