Germany Prepares for Day X: 55% of Gas Is Russian

Day X: Germany prepares to lose 55% of its gas

How long does it take for an industrial economy to shut down if the tap is turned off? In Germany, they have named the answer: Day X. The first European economy imports around 50 billion cubic meters of Russian gas annually — 55% of its consumption — and continues to pay Moscow 200 million euros per day while imposing sanctions. The owner of a mechanical engineering firm in the west, who asked not to be identified, summarizes it plainly: if gas is cut, his century-old business "probably won't survive." It does not depend solely on gas; it also depends on nickel and aluminum arriving from Russia.

The two scenarios for the Russian gas cut

Two hypotheses are being discussed, neither excluded. The first: Moscow cuts or reduces supply in retaliation for sanctions. The second: Germany yields to pressure and supports a European energy embargo, thereby shooting itself in the foot. In both cases, the result is the same closed tap. The volume at stake is the largest in the entire European Union, and that daily bill of 200 million euros finances, according to those demanding the embargo, the machinery bombing Ukraine.

The emergency plan: factories close first

Economy Minister Robert Habeck activated the first part of a three-point emergency plan that anticipates a supply interruption and decides where the remaining gas goes. Priority goes to hospitals, emergency services, and medical manufacturers; then, households. Industries, which consume one quarter of the gas delivered in Germany, would be the first to shut down. Habeck has asked Germans to lower the thermostat with an argument that some have dubbed with irony: freezing for Ukraine.

The storage figures explain the urgency: the country's 45 gas storage facilities are only 26% full, and the goal is to reach 80% by autumn, saving now to survive the next winter. It is not just a home heating problem. It is a problem of steel, chemistry, and glass.

Companies already calculating for Day X

Major German industrial names — Thyssenkrupp, BASF, Bayer — depend on gas to operate, along with hundreds of thousands of small and medium-sized enterprises linked in their supply chain. The effects, the sector warns, would be felt in construction materials, synthetics, pesticides, disinfectants, packaging, and semiconductors, but also in antibiotics, vaccines, and cancer drugs.

Some are working overtime to produce as much as possible before the tap closes. This is the case of porcelain manufacturer KPM, founded in 1763, whose top executive wonders how much gas will remain, because without it, there is no porcelain. Glass manufacturers maintain that shutting down facilities is not an option: the liquids settle and destroy the machinery. Law firms have been flooded with inquiries from companies wanting to know their legal status, and the Federal Network Agency has sent a questionnaire to companies to justify their systemic relevance. The problem is zero-sum: if everyone claims to be vital, no one is dispensable.

Paying Moscow and sanctioning Moscow at the same time

At the Brandenburg Gate, protesters favoring an oil and gas embargo lit 410 red lights in memory of the victims of Bucha, with slogans directed at Chancellor Olaf Scholz: If not now, when?. Their thesis is that every euro paid to Moscow helps finance atrocities. On the other side, the warning from industry and much of the political class is that the damage to Germany would be much greater than any benefit for Ukraine. A source close to the Government summarized it: "What good is a weakened Germany to anyone?".

Who wins if Germany shuts down

Here comes the United States. Liquefied gas arriving in methane carriers is the immediate alternative, more expensive than pipeline gas and with regasification plants as a bottleneck. Poland and Lithuania already have terminals; Germany does not. Some argue that the real goal of sanctions is not Moscow but Europe itself, and that Washington continues buying Russian oil while demanding Europeans stop doing so. And some add an uncomfortable corollary: if Germany is the ATM of the Union and runs out of cash, the big winner would be the dollar.

It is also argued that cheap Russian gas would end anyway, with or without a cut, and that a push accelerates the energy transition. It might. Meanwhile, the 1763 porcelain awaits instructions.