CO2 Tax Debate Fuels Gasoline Price Surge to Two Euros

Gasoline Prices Heading Toward Two Euros Per Liter

The two-euro-per-liter gasoline mark is no longer just a nightmare. The European Commission is preparing new environmental levies on CO2, while the UN attempted to introduce a global carbon tax starting with maritime transport before expanding further. Although the issue was postponed for a year, in Brussels, delay often means continued work.

The debate is not new, but the current context makes it uncomfortable: energy costs linked to carbon are already driving industrial inflation. In Spain, production prices rose by 6.6% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, according to INE (National Statistics Institute). Meanwhile, Hacienda (Spanish Treasury) continues to break records in hydrocarbon revenue collection. The numbers simply do not add up.

Why Are We Talking About Two-Euro Gasoline?

The short answer: because fuel prices in Europe are largely political. A calculation circulating among observers suggests that the actual cost per liter could be 0.6 euros, with the remaining 1.4 euros being taxes. This figure is an estimate, not an official settlement, but it illustrates the point: in Europe, fuel has become a fiscal tool rather than just a consumer good.

The official argument is climate-related. Critics argue the underlying motive is revenue generation. The deeper reason, rarely stated openly, is that making thermal mobility expensive is the fastest way to push people toward electric vehicles. The problem is that this transition is incomplete: there is a lack of charging stations, the power grid is at its limit, and electric vehicle prices remain out of reach for most.

Oil Is Cheap, But Gasoline Is Not

Here lies the contradiction that confuses anyone looking at markets. Brent trades around $61, and the world is awash in oil. With crude at this price and the dollar at 1.18, two euros per liter cannot be explained by raw materials. It is explained by what is added on top.

The warning hanging over the issue is the reverse scenario: if the barrel rises to $100 and the dollar equals the euro, two euros will seem like a fond memory, similar to when filling a tank cost 20 euros in 2001. The carbon tax does not replace the market; it adds to it.

The Global Carbon Tax Postponed for One Year

The most recent episode has a name and date. The UN tried to approve a global carbon tax that would have started with maritime transport before extending to other sectors. The United States opposed it fiercely, threatening sanctions and tariffs against any supporter. The result was a one-year postponement.


For critics, that year is not a pause but time to maneuver. The decision was voted on, postponed, and will return. Meanwhile, the machinery remains well-oiled.

Impact on Other Prices

If the liter rises to two euros, it is not just the liter that increases. Everything that moves becomes more expensive. Freight transport costs rise, and these are passed on to the final customer. The forecast suggests a new wave of inflation with soaring grocery bills: eggs at 6 euros a dozen and chicken at 10 euros a kilogram are recurring figures.

The side effect is pressure on wages that does not always materialize. Salaries remain static while the shopping cart grows. Here appears the paradox summarizing everything: public revenues from hydrocarbons hit records while taxpayers tighten their belts.

Mobility as a Luxury Good

The scenario emerging is not only more expensive but also more restrictive. Sustainable mobility practically translates into cars for those who can afford them, the gradual elimination of low-cost commercial aviation, and a return to bicycles, trams, and night trains. This is not a conspiracy; it is the logical consequence of increasing the cost per kilometer.

The problem is that the electric alternative does not cover all demand. A used electric car with an out-of-warranty battery can cost more than the vehicle itself. Moreover, the power grid is not prepared to handle the entire fleet.

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The most reasonable forecast, given the data, is that the liter will approach two euros before the barrel moves significantly. If oil corrects upward, the figure will fall short. If the global carbon tax returns next year, the discussion will no longer be about price, but about who can afford to move.