Hilo del bukake de liquidez: Gran subida de la bolsa y BTC 2023/24 - Yellen fruta astuta, release the kraken - El kraken ha sido liberado 12/MAR/2023

[LadilleoFeo]

Bueno pues Fitch ha bajado hoy la calificación de los bonos de EEUU en, lo que es para mí, un burdo intento oportunista de manipular el mercado para que las manos fuertes comprar los bonos en mínimos.

Justo ahora que hemos tocado el 3% de inflación y existe la duda entre si es esta o la próxima la última subida de tipos van y le bajan la calificación crediticia a EEUU, y por motivos que se conocen desde hace meses.

El mínimo de los bonos en las subidas de tipos debería coincidir con el forecast del tipo máximo.

Por el timming me parece un movimiento una jugada, y le doy poca credibilidad.

Tiene sentido, ya que el mercado ni se ha inmutado a algo que a priori parece dolido dolido. Que pasará con fondos que van cargados de deuda y tienen de requisito el triple A?

 

[ciberobrero]

Bueno pues Fitch ha bajado hoy la calificación de los bonos de EEUU en, lo que es para mí, un burdo intento oportunista de manipular el mercado para que las manos fuertes puedan comprar los bonos en mínimos.

Justo ahora que hemos tocado el 3% de inflación y existe la duda entre si es esta o la próxima la última subida de tipos van y le bajan la calificación crediticia a EEUU, y por motivos que se conocen desde hace meses.

El mínimo de los bonos en las subidas de tipos debería coincidir con el forecast del tipo máximo.

Por el timming me parece un movimiento una jugada, y le doy poca credibilidad.

O sea comprar TLT en Septiembre?

 

[ciberobrero]

Nos acercamos a alguna otra intervencion "Not-QE QE"?

 

[Quesubaelyuri]

O sea comprar TLT en Septiembre?

De comprar compraría directamente los Bonos, y ahora mismo.

De todas formas, el dólar está demasiado fuerte como para cambiar euros a renta fija en dólares. Si tuviéramos el cambio EUR/USD entorno a 1,15 sería buena compra.

Casi mejor ir comprando deuda de UK, que está a mayor interés que la americana y además es probable que a la larga se gane con el cambio de divisa (de hecho hace pocos meses he comprado renta fija de UK por este motivo, aunque ahora mismo se paga igual)

 

[ciberobrero]

Let the fireworks BEGIN



Siempre fue mi tesis que en Oct/Nov de 2022, con la crisis de la deuda britanica (que propicio la salida de Liz Tuss) algo cambio en los mercados financieros. El jabali de la deuda soberana sangró y los lobos de la liquidez lo olieron. Y que era cuestión de tiempo que ocurriese en USA.

 

[Quesubaelyuri]

Let the fireworks BEGIN



Siempre fue mi tesis que en Oct/Nov de 2022, con la crisis de la deuda britanica (que propicio la salida de Liz Tuss) algo cambio en los mercados financieros. El jabali de la deuda soberana sangró y los lobos de la liquidez lo olieron. Y que era cuestión de tiempo que ocurriese en USA.

¿Se están refiriendo al comienzo de Yield Curve Control? ¿Es este el momento quizás de la operación twist de la que llevas hablando meses?

 

[ciberobrero]

¿Se están refiriendo al comienzo de Yield Curve Control? ¿Es este el momento quizás de la operación twist de la que llevas hablando meses?

Con operación twist me refería a la recompra de bonos off the run y sustitución por on the run. Lo que ocurrió en octubre con el mercado de deuda inglés. Eso fue lo que acabó con el mercado bajista. Pero el plato rellenito son los USA. De todas maneras si no es antes, ya es oficial que el Tesoro lo va a comenzar en 2024.

Agarraros fuerte.

La lquidez vendrá del RRP+Fed losses

 

[ciberobrero]

Pregunto a ChatGPT lo siguiente sobre una politica de YCC bajo las condiciones descritas

if the market is sending rates too high, there are high emissions of Treasury bills and bonds, and the Fed must do yield curve control (YCC), what is the outcome for liquidity and asset prices (such as stocks, indexes and other risk investments)?

Y responde:

When the market is sending interest rates too high and there are high emissions of Treasury bills and bonds, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) might consider implementing yield curve control (YCC) to manage and control the yield curve. Yield curve control involves the central bank purchasing or selling government securities to influence and manipulate longer-term interest rates.

The outcome for liquidity and asset prices, such as stocks, indexes, and other risk investments, can vary based on how yield curve control is implemented and how market participants react. Here are some potential outcomes:

1. **Liquidity**: Yield curve control can enhance liquidity in the financial markets by providing a clear signal about the central bank's intentions to keep interest rates at a certain level. This can reduce uncertainty and encourage investors to engage in trading activities.

2. **Bonds and Fixed-Income Investments**: With YCC, the central bank aims to keep longer-term interest rates lower than they might be in an unconstrained market. This can lead to increased demand for bonds and other fixed-income investments, as investors seek relatively stable returns in a low-interest-rate environment.

3. **Stocks and Risk Investments**: Lower long-term interest rates resulting from YCC can make riskier assets like stocks and other risk investments more attractive. When yields on bonds are low, investors may be more inclined to allocate funds to equities and other higher-yielding assets, potentially boosting their prices.

4. **Reduced Volatility**: Yield curve control can contribute to reduced volatility in financial markets by anchoring interest rates within a specific range. This stability can provide a calmer investing environment and support asset prices.

5. **Inflation Concerns**: One potential downside of YCC is that it may fuel concerns about inflation. If the central bank keeps interest rates too low for an extended period, it could contribute to higher inflation expectations, which might impact investor sentiment and asset prices.

6. **Market Distortions**: Yield curve control can lead to distortions in market pricing and allocation of capital. Investors might make decisions based on the central bank's intervention rather than market fundamentals, potentially leading to misallocation of resources.

7. **Potential Bubbles**: Persistently low interest rates resulting from YCC can contribute to asset price bubbles, as investors chase higher returns in riskier assets. This could lead to overvaluation and eventual corrections in certain market segments.

It's important to note that the effectiveness and outcomes of yield curve control depend on a variety of factors, including the central bank's communication strategy, market expectations, and broader economic conditions. The impact on asset prices and liquidity will also depend on how well the central bank manages the balance between its policy goals and potential unintended consequences.

1, 3 y 4 = Aumenta la liquidez, se reduce incertidumbre, se reduce la volatilidad, signo bueno para activos de riesgo
6 y 7 distorsiones de mercado, lo hemos visto con anteriores burbujas. Se reduce el riesgo y por tanto activos de alto riesgo y retorno son mas atractivos poorque su riesgo se reduce artificialmente, creando burbujas

Dice "tipos bajos" de manera absoluta. Aclaremos con el que no son tipos bajos, sino tipos mas bajos de lo que dicaria el mercado (que viniendo de tipos cero, son altos)

Just one clarification, in this setting, we are coming from a multi year zero interest rate policy (ZIRP), then inflation rising made the Fed rise rates to what can be considered to be a high Fed Funds rate, so we can't say low rates in absolute terms. YCC would make rates lower, but not zero or what could be considered low rates coming from ZIRP. Do the previous points hold if we say that YCC would make rates lower to what they would be relative to fair market valuation given the Treasury emissions and the other conditions stated above (and in addition, the Japanese Central Bank also doing YCC and assuming China easing credit conditions)

Y responde:

Thank you for providing additional context. Given the scenario where the market is transitioning from a multi-year zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) due to rising inflation, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) implements yield curve control (YCC) to bring rates lower than they might be relative to fair market valuation, the points mentioned in the previous response still apply, with some adjustments:

1. **Liquidity**: YCC can still enhance liquidity by providing clarity on the central bank's intentions to influence longer-term interest rates. The relative reduction in rates compared to the elevated levels resulting from the shift away from ZIRP could contribute to improved market liquidity.

2. **Bonds and Fixed-Income Investments**: YCC's aim to keep rates lower than they would be without intervention might lead to increased demand for bonds and other fixed-income investments, especially if these rates are still relatively higher compared to the ZIRP era. Investors seeking yield may find bonds attractive despite the higher rates compared to ZIRP.

3. **Stocks and Risk Investments**: The lower rates resulting from YCC, even if they are not at ZIRP levels, could still make riskier assets like stocks more appealing to investors searching for yield. This could potentially support stock prices and other risk investments.

4. **Reduced Volatility**: YCC could continue to contribute to reduced volatility in financial markets by anchoring interest rates within a specific range, which could persist even if the rates are not as low as during ZIRP.

5. **Inflation Concerns**: The potential for YCC to fuel inflation concerns remains, especially if central banks are implementing such measures to counteract rising inflation. Market participants might worry about the long-term effects of sustained low interest rates on inflation dynamics.

6. **Market Distortions**: The potential for market distortions still exists, as investors might react to the central bank's actions rather than solely on market fundamentals. Misallocation of resources and overvalued assets could result from this behavior.

7. **Potential Bubbles**: The risk of asset price bubbles may remain, as the persistence of low rates, even if higher than ZIRP levels, could incentivize investors to take on excessive risk in search of returns.

Given the additional assumption of the Japanese Central Bank also implementing YCC and China easing credit conditions, the global economic environment could become even more complex. The interaction of multiple central banks using YCC and varying credit conditions could lead to interconnected effects on capital flows, exchange rates, and overall market sentiment. While YCC might have the intended effects on domestic markets, its impact on the broader global economy and asset prices could be influenced by these additional factors.

It's important to note that the specific outcomes will depend on a multitude of complex interactions among economic variables, central bank policies, investor behaviors, and geopolitical developments. In such a scenario, thorough analysis and monitoring of these interconnected dynamics would be crucial to understanding the potential implications for liquidity and asset prices.

Añadamos, por supuesto, la tesis del hilo

Lastly, assumethe Treasury conducts a repurchase operation that swaps off-the-run notes and bonds for on-the-run, highly liquid and pristine collateral. What would the outcome be for risk assets?

Y responde:

A repurchase operation (repo) conducted by the Treasury in which it swaps off-the-run notes and bonds for on-the-run, highly liquid, and pristine collateral can have several potential outcomes for risk assets. However, the effects on risk assets can be complex and depend on various factors, including market conditions, investor behavior, and the overall economic environment. Here are some potential outcomes:

1. **Liquidity Boost**: Swapping off-the-run securities for on-the-run, highly liquid collateral can inject liquidity into the financial system. This increased liquidity can have a positive impact on risk assets, making it easier for investors to buy and sell securities and potentially leading to higher demand.

2. **Reduced Risk Premium**: The use of highly liquid and pristine collateral in repo operations can reduce perceived credit and liquidity risk. As a result, risk assets may become more attractive to investors, potentially leading to lower risk premiums and higher asset prices.

3. **Demand for Risk Assets**: The availability of on-the-run, highly liquid collateral could encourage investors to shift their allocation toward risk assets such as stocks, corporate bonds, or other higher-yielding instruments in search of better returns.

4. **Market Stability**: By providing a mechanism for exchanging less liquid assets for more liquid ones, the repo operation can contribute to market stability and reduce the risk of disorderly trading conditions. This stability can positively influence investor sentiment and support risk asset prices.

5. **Yield Compression**: The increased demand for risk assets resulting from the repo operation could lead to yield compression, where yields on these assets decline due to higher buying interest. This could impact fixed-income assets like bonds, potentially driving investors to seek higher returns in riskier assets.

6. **Market Sentiment**: The repo operation could enhance positive market sentiment, reinforcing the perception that authorities are taking steps to support financial stability. This sentiment can contribute to a favorable environment for risk assets.

7. **Spillover Effects**: The impact of the repo operation on risk assets might also depend on how other market participants respond. Positive sentiment and increased liquidity could lead to a cascading effect, where other investors amow suit in reallocating funds to risk assets.

It's important to note that the effects of a repo operation on risk assets can vary based on the specific characteristics of the assets involved, market dynamics, investor behavior, and broader economic conditions. While a repo operation can provide short-term liquidity and stability benefits, its impact on risk assets is just one factor among many influencing market outcomes. As with any market intervention, there could also be unintended consequences, and market participants may react in ways that are difficult to predict.

Casi nahhhhh

Me llama la atencion el punto 5. **Yield Compression**. Le pregunto se puede haber efectos de segundo orden y forzar a una politica mas agresiva de YCC, aumentando la liquidez aún más

About 5 Yield Compression, could this have second order effects on Treasury notes, bills and bonds, forcing the Fed to more aggressive YCC? Could this make risk assets even more attractive?

Y responde:

Yes, the yield compression resulting from increased demand for risk assets could indeed have second-order effects on Treasury notes, bills, and bonds, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve's approach to yield curve control (YCC). Here's how this chain of events could unfold:

1. **Yield Compression on Risk Assets**: As demand for risk assets increases due to the liquidity injection from a repo operation or other factors, their yields may decline, leading to yield compression. Investors seeking better returns might shift their focus from safer assets (like Treasuries) to riskier assets.

2. **Impact on Treasuries**: The reduced yields on risk assets could lead investors to seek yield in other segments of the market, including Treasury notes, bills, and bonds. This increased demand for Treasuries could put downward pressure on their yields as well.

3. **Fed's YCC Response**: If Treasury yields across the curve continue to decline due to yield compression and market dynamics, the Federal Reserve might need to adjust its YCC strategy. The Fed may become more aggressive in its YCC efforts to maintain its target yield levels, potentially increasing its purchases of Treasury securities to keep longer-term yields from dropping too low.

4. **Market Perception of YCC**: The more aggressive use of YCC by the Fed could influence market perceptions and expectations. Investors might interpret this as a commitment by the central bank to support market stability and risk assets, potentially making risk assets even more attractive.

5. **Risk Asset Demand**: The combination of reduced yields on risk assets and continued central bank support could further enhance the appeal of risk assets like stocks and higher-yielding corporate bonds. Investors might be more inclined to allocate funds to these assets in search of better returns relative to lower-yielding Treasuries.

6. **Market Dynamics**: The interplay between YCC, risk asset demand, and Treasury yields could create a dynamic feedback loop. As risk assets become more attractive, their prices could rise, potentially leading to further yield compression. This, in turn, might require the Fed to adjust its YCC strategy even more to maintain its desired yield targets.

It's important to note that this sequence of events is hypothetical and depends on various factors, including the specific actions of the Federal Reserve, market sentiment, economic conditions, and investor behavior. Additionally, while these second-order effects could make risk assets more attractive in the short term, they could also contribute to market distortions and increase the potential for asset bubbles or other imbalances. As always, central banks need to carefully consider the trade-offs and unintended consequences of their policy decisions.

 

[ciberobrero]

mas YCC

 

[Quesubaelyuri]

Bueno pues hoy a las 14:30 se ha publicado el dato del indicador NFCI de la Chicago Fed con una lectura de -0,33 expandiéndose desde los -0,31 del 28 de Julio.

La liquidez sigue expandiéndose lo que le da a las bolsas un impulso alcista.

Estoy atento a bitcoin porque entre lo del etf de blackrock, el aumento de liquidez y la próxima YCC creo que a finales de 2024 puede doblar su precio y en algún momento va a pegar un petardazo.

 

[ciberobrero]

Bueno pues hoy a las 14:30 se ha publicado el dato del indicador NFCI de la Chicago Fed con una lectura de -0,33 expandiéndose desde los -0,31 del 28 de Julio.

La liquidez sigue expandiéndose lo que le da a las bolsas un impulso alcista.

Estoy atento a bitcoin porque entre lo del etf de blackrock, el aumento de liquidez y la próxima YCC creo que a finales de 2024 puede doblar su precio y en algún momento va a pegar un petardazo.

this ^

doblar? te refieres a doblar su ATH no?

 

[Quesubaelyuri]

this ^

doblar? te refieres a doblar su ATH no?

Al precio actual y ponerse en 50k. Después con el impulso del ETF y una subida rápida sí que se puede ir a 80-100k por burbujearse.

 

[ciberobrero]

Al precio actual y ponerse en 50k. Después con el impulso del ETF y una subida rápida sí que se puede ir a 80-100k por burbujearse.

OK releyendo veo que pones como en 2 partes, doblar precio y luego pegar petardazo.

Esto va a seguir subiendo hasta despues de Nov 2024. Apuesto a que AOC saca su ley de prohibicion de especulacion por parte de los congresistas alrededor de las elecciones, y se va a la hez unos meses despues (lo justo para resetear las mentes borregas) de que sus senorias hayan ganado dinero a expuertas y hayan "sido obligados" a salir para regocijo de los sociatas del Hestado funsiona.

 

[kerberos]

Este hilo es BROOTAL. Mis dieses a todos los intervinientes.

 

[Tio Pepe]

Bueno pues hoy a las 14:30 se ha publicado el dato del indicador NFCI de la Chicago Fed con una lectura de -0,33 expandiéndose desde los -0,31 del 28 de Julio.

La liquidez sigue expandiéndose lo que le da a las bolsas un impulso alcista.

Estoy atento a bitcoin porque entre lo del etf de blackrock, el aumento de liquidez y la próxima YCC creo que a finales de 2024 puede doblar su precio y en algún momento va a pegar un petardazo.

Sólo para que tengáis todas las variables sobre la mesa, en el pasado el endurecimiento de los agentes crediticios anticipó un endurecimiento de las condiciones financieras.
No hay que olvidar que la mayoría de empresas y ciudadanos siguen disfrutando de sus créditos tremendamente laxos obtenidos durante la expansión post-el bichito. A no ser que se la FED relaje, en el pasado fue cuestión de tiempo que se filtrara a la economía, veremos: