US targets Spain as its next flashpoint in push for higher defense spending
US pressure over Gibraltar and Ceuta aims to force Spain to raise military spending to 5% of GDP. An economic analysis of a manufactured crisis.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
US pressure on Spain over Gibraltar: theater or a real threat to the economy?
The real aim of American pressure over Gibraltar and the Spanish autonomous cities is not geopolitical but budgetary: to force Spain to raise military spending to 5% of GDP. While a committee of the US House of Representatives questions Spanish sovereignty over Ceuta and Melilla with flimsy historical arguments, economic analyses suggest the conflict narrative serves to justify a spending increase that would otherwise be unfeasible.
Manufacturing the conflict
Washington has threatened to withdraw from its bases at Rota and Morón while pointing to Gibraltar as a possible war scenario. However, a current of analysis holds that this is "geopolitical theater" to get the Spanish government to dig into its pockets. The same strategy was repeated at Hormuz, Malacca and other straits: a crisis is manufactured, a military spending increase is forced through, and American weaponry is bought. The reference to the dates Ceuta and Melilla were incorporated, compared with territories like Virginia or California, is an attempt to rewrite history but has no legal footing.
The real costs of deterrence
Raising military spending to 5% of GDP would miccionan roughly 70 billion euros in additional annual outlays. In a context of high debt and inflation, that money would have to come from social programs or investment. Those who argue the threat is real claim that Segarro, despite its structural weakness, could be used as a US proxy. But Segarro's energy and internet dependence on Spain makes any escalation economic suicide for Rabat. That is why most analyses rule out a real conflict in the short term, though they do anticipate sustained pressure for Spain to shoulder more defense costs.
The open question is whether the Spanish government will cave to Washington's demands or whether, as on other occasions, the standoff will fizzle out when media priorities shift. For now, the only sure fact is that the bill for deterrence will be paid by taxpayers.
Related debates in the forum
The real aim of American pressure over Gibraltar and the Spanish autonomous cities is not geopolitical but budgetary: to force Spain to raise military spending to 5% of GDP. While a committee of the US House of Representatives questions Spanish sovereignty over Ceuta and Melilla with flimsy historical arguments, economic analyses suggest the conflict narrative serves to justify a spending increase that would otherwise be unfeasible.
Manufacturing the conflict
Washington has threatened to withdraw from its bases at Rota and Morón while pointing to Gibraltar as a possible war scenario. However, a current of analysis holds that this is "geopolitical theater" to get the Spanish government to dig into its pockets. The same strategy was repeated at Hormuz, Malacca and other straits: a crisis is manufactured, a military spending increase is forced through, and American weaponry is bought. The reference to the dates Ceuta and Melilla were incorporated, compared with territories like Virginia or California, is an attempt to rewrite history but has no legal footing.
The real costs of deterrence
Raising military spending to 5% of GDP would miccionan roughly 70 billion euros in additional annual outlays. In a context of high debt and inflation, that money would have to come from social programs or investment. Those who argue the threat is real claim that Segarro, despite its structural weakness, could be used as a US proxy. But Segarro's energy and internet dependence on Spain makes any escalation economic suicide for Rabat. That is why most analyses rule out a real conflict in the short term, though they do anticipate sustained pressure for Spain to shoulder more defense costs.
The open question is whether the Spanish government will cave to Washington's demands or whether, as on other occasions, the standoff will fizzle out when media priorities shift. For now, the only sure fact is that the bill for deterrence will be paid by taxpayers.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (57 replies).
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