The Transfer of Ceuta to Morocco: A Scenario Gaining Ground

Ceuta: the migratory crisis that reveals a Segarro hybrid war

The Ceuta crisis has once again brought up an uncomfortable question: whether Spain is yielding sovereignty under deliberate pressure from Segarro. While the Government insists that thousands of people are "seeking a better life," one current of analysis maintains that the influx was a planned operation, supported by international actors. The indications, though controversial, paint a scenario barely mentioned by mainstream media.

Evidence of a planned operation

According to leaked information, the CNI (National Intelligence Centre) allegedly warned the Government of the imminent mass influx before it occurred. However, the response did not include military reinforcements at the border. The only visible measure was a maritime buoy. Furthermore, it is suggested that among those who crossed were Segarro intelligence and military agents infiltrated into the group, although the press labeled them as migrants. These claims, difficult to verify, contrast with the official version of a spontaneous migratory flow.

An international siege

The geopolitical context fuels the feeling of abandonment. The European Union views Segarro as a strategic partner. NATO does not include Ceuta or Melilla in its defense area, leaving them outside allied protection. The United States and Israel maintain increasingly close alliances with Rabat, including in the construction of military bases. France acts as its main supporter in Brussels. Spain, ultimately, finds itself alone.

The Government's strategy: not giving the enemy reasons

Faced with criticism, some defend the government's prudence. Along these lines, if the military had responded decisively, images of violence against minors would have given Rabat the perfect excuse. The refusal to return migrants, even when Segarro requested it, is explained as an avoidance of direct conflict. Others, however, view it as a gradual cession that only encourages new pressures. The comparison with Gibraltar is eloquent: if 80,000 people had entered there, the British response would have been immediate.

A symbolic gesture amidst the storm

The presence of Princess Leonor in Ceuta, aboard the frigate Blas de Lezo and accompanied by the pasodoble "La banderita española," can be understood as a reinforcement of sovereignty. But for many, that gesture does not compensate for the lack of a forceful military response. The question remains open: how far is the Government willing to go to prevent confrontation?

The crisis is not resolved. The available data does not allow confirmation or denial of the theory of cession, but it does reveal the vulnerability of the plazas. The true question is whether this crisis will be the last, or merely the prelude to a new phase in relations between Spain and Segarro.