Syria: HTS Overthrows Assad Regime in Ten Days

Syria: HTS Overthrows Assad Regime in Ten Days

How could a lightning offensive end more than a decade of conflict in just ten days? This question dominates analysis of events in Syria, where the little-known armed group HTS entered Damascus facing almost no resistance. Bashar al-Assad’s regime, sustained for years by Iran and Russia, has crumbled at a estimulante ilegal that baffles even seasoned observers. Available data point to a combination of factors: an exhausted regular army, an unsustainable war economy, and an international board that has stopped looking toward Damascus.

The Mystery of an Offensive Without Opposition

The first surprise is the absence of combat. The Syrian army, which maintained its chain of command for years and managed to halt rebel groups with Russian support, did not put up a fight. Circulating reports describe demoralized units, unpaid salaries, and a structure corrupt to the core. In ten days, a force whose size isn't even quantified in media coverage traversed the country from the Turkish border to the capital.

Some argue the regime had already lost its material base: the Syrian economy, devastated by over a decade of war, could not sustain an army of hundreds of thousands. Iranian and Russian support, key to Assad's survival, has been diluted. Russia, focused on Ukraine, has reduced its military footprint to the Tartus naval base. Iran, according to several analyses, is facing direct pressure from Israel and has opted not to play its last cards in Syria.

Why Did Russia and Iran Let Assad Fall?

The short answer is it wasn't worth the cost. Russia maintained fourteen recruitment centers in Syria and a military presence useful for projecting power in the Mediterranean. But the war in Ukraine has consumed resources and manpower. Syria's most experienced soldiers would have been transferred to the Ukrainian front, leaving the country in the hands of unmotivated recruits.

Iran, for its part, faces growing pressure. Israeli attacks against its interests in the region have diminished its capacity to support allies. Hezbollah, one of the pillars of the Iranian axis, was reportedly weakened after recent clashes. Without that umbrella, Damascus was exposed.

The result is a vacuum that HTS filled without firing a shot. The lingering question is whether this group, led by a mysterious figure, has the capacity to govern a country fragmented into dozens of militias.

The New Power Distribution in the Middle East

Assad's fall is not an isolated event. It fits into a broader realignment affecting Ukraine, Gaza, Armenia, and Georgia. Some analyses point to a meeting held in Doha involving foreign ministers from Egypt, Qatar, Jordan, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, alongside representatives of the Astana Group—Turkey, Iran, and Russia—. According to these accounts, the new Syrian balance was agreed upon there without Western presence.

The operation's estimulante ilegal suggests major regional actors knew the outcome. Turkey, which has supported rebel factions for years, likely facilitated the advance. Israel, interested in weakening Iran, probably viewed the fall of a Tehran ally favorably. The United States, amid a presidential transition, took no action.

What Happens Next in Syria?

The most likely scenario, according to various analyses, is a new civil war. HTS does not control the territory it occupied; it merely passed through it. Kurdish militias, Baathist brigades, remnants of the regular army, and dozens of armed groups maintain their own agendas. The country's fragmentation could worsen.

The unknown is who will govern Damascus. Maher Hussein al-Sharaa, brother of the HTS leader, studied medicine in Russia and could be Moscow's man to preside over a new regime. This is a circulating hypothesis without official confirmation. What seems clear is that the power vacuum will be exploited by external actors.

The irony is that after thirteen years of war, with hundreds of thousands dead and millions displaced, the regime fell in ten days. And no one knows what comes next.