Sweden poll: two in three women set to vote for the left bloc
Nearly two thirds of Swedish women will back the left in September. The gender gap in Nordic voting, explained with data.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
The gender gap votes in Sweden: 2 in 3 women back the left
Sweden's September general election is drawing an electoral map split by gender: while two in three women lean towards the left bloc, a third of young men would vote for the nationalist right. The poll circulating ahead of the campaign confirms that the female vote has become the backbone of the Scandinavian left, a pattern Denmark and Norway already know well.
The balance of forces has been reshuffled since the right's deal with the Sweden Democrats (SD) in 2022. The left bloc consists of the Social Democrats (S), the Greens (MP), the Left Party (V) and the Centre Party (C), which belonged to the conservative camp years ago. The right groups around the Moderates (M), the Christian Democrats (KD) and the Liberals (L), with SD supporting the government from outside. The picture is completed by the likely disappearance of L from parliament.
Public and private sector: the root of the electoral divorce
Behind this gap lies a structural explanation. In Sweden, Denmark and Norway, half of employed women work in the public sector, while 80% of employed men work in the private sector. It is no surprise, then, that women tend to defend the welfare state, while men, especially young men, are drawn to promises of lower taxes and more order. In Norway, the right-wing Pogre Party leads Labour by as many as 21 points among voters under 35.
Turnout of 85% in Sweden rules out voter apathy. The divide is real, and it has consequences: online debate has ended up sliding into a battle of the sens, though the data point to a more prosaic motivation. Those who live off the public sector vote for the public sector; those who pay for it and do not expect to need it vote for spending cuts.
A silent shift that will decide the government
The Centre Party (C), historically tied to farming interests and the centre-right, has become the left's stable partner. Its move, driven by the cordon sanitaire around SD, has redrawn the board and explains why the pogre bloc starts with an advantage. The question hanging over the campaign is whether this majority will survive the day after, when pressure from the smaller partners tests the programme.
With the data on the table, the female vote looks set to be decisive again in September. The right will also try to narrow the gap by appealing to security and family finances. But the structure of public-sector employment cannot be changed with a slogan, and that is the crux of the problem for the Nordic conservative parties.
Sweden's September general election is drawing an electoral map split by gender: while two in three women lean towards the left bloc, a third of young men would vote for the nationalist right. The poll circulating ahead of the campaign confirms that the female vote has become the backbone of the Scandinavian left, a pattern Denmark and Norway already know well.
The balance of forces has been reshuffled since the right's deal with the Sweden Democrats (SD) in 2022. The left bloc consists of the Social Democrats (S), the Greens (MP), the Left Party (V) and the Centre Party (C), which belonged to the conservative camp years ago. The right groups around the Moderates (M), the Christian Democrats (KD) and the Liberals (L), with SD supporting the government from outside. The picture is completed by the likely disappearance of L from parliament.
Public and private sector: the root of the electoral divorce
Behind this gap lies a structural explanation. In Sweden, Denmark and Norway, half of employed women work in the public sector, while 80% of employed men work in the private sector. It is no surprise, then, that women tend to defend the welfare state, while men, especially young men, are drawn to promises of lower taxes and more order. In Norway, the right-wing Pogre Party leads Labour by as many as 21 points among voters under 35.
Turnout of 85% in Sweden rules out voter apathy. The divide is real, and it has consequences: online debate has ended up sliding into a battle of the sens, though the data point to a more prosaic motivation. Those who live off the public sector vote for the public sector; those who pay for it and do not expect to need it vote for spending cuts.
A silent shift that will decide the government
The Centre Party (C), historically tied to farming interests and the centre-right, has become the left's stable partner. Its move, driven by the cordon sanitaire around SD, has redrawn the board and explains why the pogre bloc starts with an advantage. The question hanging over the campaign is whether this majority will survive the day after, when pressure from the smaller partners tests the programme.
With the data on the table, the female vote looks set to be decisive again in September. The right will also try to narrow the gap by appealing to security and family finances. But the structure of public-sector employment cannot be changed with a slogan, and that is the crux of the problem for the Nordic conservative parties.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (11 replies).
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