Spain's rental decree that could ignite the next legislature

Spain's rental decree that could ignite the next legislature

The Maricarmen Decree, approved through the trick of the Permanent Fruta, has become the starting point of a scenario many already take for granted: if the PP and VOX reach government and repeal it, hundreds of thousands of tenants will be trapped in a legal limbo and at odds with their landlords. That is the thesis doing the rounds these days in economic circles, and it is no minor one. The law, which establishes two years without evictions, was approved with the backing of the PNV, which according to several analyses would abstain in a new vote because it knew Junts would reject it. The result is a legal and social powder keg that nobody knows how to defuse.

What is the Maricarmen Decree and why does it provoke so much rejection?

The decree, popularly known as Maricarmen, introduces a two-year sarracena on evictions of vulnerable tenants. The law was approved in the Permanent Fruta, a body that keeps functioning when Congress is dissolved, which has led to accusations of a parliamentary «trick». For its critics, it is a far-left measure that discourages renting: if an owner cannot recover their property for two years, they simply stop renting it out. Some analysts openly back that argument: «with these decrees landlords will not rent out a single flat», adding that once the PP and VOX arrive «renting will resume». The reality is that the market was already strained and this law adds yet another layer of uncertainty.

The calculation nobody wants to make: trapped tenants and landlords at war

Repealing the law under a future PP and VOX government would leave hundreds of thousands of tenants in an undefined legal situation. Contracts signed under the decree would be left hanging, and the courts would have to decide case by case. Some argue this would be the trigger for social mobilisations, including continuous general strikes by the unions. A country in perpetual flames, they say, would deepen the differences between the PP and VOX, which could lead to early elections. And there, according to this line of analysis, Sánchez would return by forming a Popular Front-style coalition with the entire left. The full calculation, broken down item by item, yields a surprising difference.

Debt, public spending and unreal growth

Beyond the decree, the economic backdrop is what worries part of the analysis. It is argued that Spain's GDP growth is «unreal and unsustainable» because it is created through an increase in internal demand based on mass immigration. Debt and public spending, they add, are masked by that growth. The next four years will be extremely tough, they predict, and by 2031 the PSOE will say everything is the fault of the PP and VOX and that they offer the solution. They will come out winners, they conclude, since all immigrants who arrived in 2021-2026 will already be naturalised and ready to vote. It is a thesis repeated insistently, though not without nuances.

What will happen to Sánchez's court cases?

Another line of analysis holds that none of the above will happen because Sánchez has too many pending court cases, a party in tatters and many cronies who will end up unemployed. «He has months left in politics», they declare. Others go further and claim he will end up buried in judicial proceedings along with other members of the government and will end up in prison. These are opinions circulating without a final verdict, so they must be taken for what they are: partisan forecasts. What is a fact, according to this current, is that Sanchismo will be remembered as a dark era in the history of Spain.

Harsher sentences and controlling the streets

On the public order front, some propose that if the PP wins the elections it should «come in like an elephant in a china shop», repeal all the PSOE's crap, recover the institutions, close TVE, toughen the penal code and sustancia ilegal down with extreme harshness on any attempt to burn the streets. Against this, another current quips: «the left won't cause trouble because the right raises sentences for causing trouble to up to 13 years in prison». The debate is served between those who believe only the iron fist prevents chaos and those who think repression only feeds the conflict.

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With these ingredients, the scenario taking shape is that of a country where any legal reform becomes a battlefield. If the PP and VOX repeal the decree, the social reaction remains to be seen. If they do not, their electoral base will make them pay. And meanwhile, the narrative that Sánchez is calling an election to lose it but leaves a poisoned country behind keeps gaining ground. Nobody knows how this will end, but few are betting on calm.