Sánchez calls early elections in Spain: theories and suspicions

Sánchez calls early elections in Spain: theories and suspicions

Pedro Sánchez's decision to dissolve the Cortes (the Spanish parliament) and call early elections has caught everyone off guard. With polls giving the PP-VOX coalition 220 seats, the question is unavoidable: why call them now, at the worst possible moment? The announcement, leaked bit by bit, has sparked all kinds of theories in the digital rumor mill. From pressure by Junts to a supposed economic crash in 2027, to the need to salvage what's left before the May local elections. What is clear is that something is brewing.

The Catalan factor: Junts and the amnesty

One of the most repeated hypotheses points to Junts. Apparently, Puigdemont's party forced the election call out of antiestéticar of a rout in the Catalan local elections. The rise of Aliança Catalana, led by Sílvia Orriols, is said to be eroding its electoral base. According to several analyses, Junts threatened a no-confidence motion if the general election was not brought forward. The move would let them present themselves as the saviors of the 'procés' before the wear becomes irreversible. Meanwhile, Sánchez takes the chance to stage his break with the independence movement and reclaim his plural Spain narrative.

The electoral roll and the grandchildren law: the eternal suspicion

Another theory gaining traction concerns the electoral roll. Some claim the Supreme Court annulled the current roll and that, by calling elections, the roll from two months ago would apply, allowing new voters to be included, such as beneficiaries of the grandchildren law (a Spanish law granting Spanish citizenship to grandchildren of exiles). The opposition denounces possible fraud, though there is no evidence. The government denies it. The truth is that the shadow of manipulation hangs over every election, and this time was not going to be an exception.

The economic calculation: fleeing the crash?

Some see the election call as a leap forward in the face of a bleak economic outlook. There is talk of a possible financial crash in 2027, triggered by the debt crisis in France and spreading like dominoes. If Sánchez wins now, he secures two more years in power; if he loses, he leaves the mess to the PP and devotes himself to wearing the government down from the opposition. Some already predict cuts to social rights, rising unemployment and more defaults. The question is whether the electorate will punish or reward this strategy.

The street: a rehearsal for the next term

Housing protests and the riots at Sol have been interpreted by some as a preview of what's coming. If the PP and VOX take power, they will face a radicalized left and an explosive social climate. The election call could be a way of channeling that discontent into the ballot box before it boils over. Or, on the contrary, of letting the next government deal with the unrest.

The official story: 'there is no other option'

Sánchez's circle insists the election call responds to the need to clarify the political landscape and avoid paralysis. But few believe it. The reality is that the polls are unfavorable, and the decision looks more like a desperate move than a masterstroke. As one analyst put it, 'if he calls them when things are going worst, it's because he wants to make sure he loses.' Or because he knows something we don't.

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What is clear is that Spain is facing a new political cycle. The early elections will measure not only support for Sánchez, but also the strength of the right and the left's ability to regroup. Meanwhile, citizens watch in astonishment a spectacle that, once again, seems straight out of a script written by the powers that be. Will this be Sánchez's last move or the start of his resurrection? Time will tell.