Spain's PP returns to its 2023 playbook: attack VOX and lose

The PP repeats its 2023 script: attack VOX and lose

The Partido Popular (Spain's main conservative party) has once again activated the machinery that, according to debate commentary, already cost it dearly in 2023: placing VOX at the center of the target and calling for tactical voting against the «radical party». The thesis circulating in sympathetic media is that Sánchez is artificially inflating VOX to siphon votes from the right, and that the answer must be to concentrate the vote on the PP. The problem, critics point out, is that this mental framework is exactly the one that suits the PSOE: it turns every campaign into a plebiscite on the right's internal adversary and leaves the PP without its own discourse on debt, austerity or governance.

Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo has once again repeated on television the argument that the PP must be given «broad appeal» in the face of the VOX threat. The scene, according to those who trinc her, is a carbon copy of the mistake made two years ago. And the diagnosis taking hold among much of the right-wing electorate, according to participants, is that «tactical voting» did nothing to stop sanchismo: if anything, it propped up the two-party system.

The electoral calculation the PP refuses to make

The PP exists, according to the most repeated analysis in the thread, to prevent parties to its right from gaining popularity. It fulfills that function effectively: it closes ranks around the two-party system and presents itself as the only bulwark against the Government. But the cost is that its natural electorate feels orphaned. Some argue that, as VOX crosses the 20% mark, the damage to the PP can be heard «in Australia». The hemorrhage, they say, is already visible in internal polls.

The paradox is that the PP can afford neither a frontal attack nor equidistance. If it calls VOX «nancy», it loses voters on the right. If it normalizes a pact, it loses them in the center. In that maze, all roads lead to Ayuso, who emerges as the only figure with room of her own.

Why does the PP prefer to lose rather than pact with VOX?

The most widely circulated answer has to do with the distribution of power. Pacting with VOX means giving up public positions, regional ministries and seats. And the PP's top priority, according to this reading, is not to improve Spaniards' lives but to place as many allies as possible in the administration. Governing alone is the only way to do it without checks.

On top of that is the antiestéticar of consequences. Some point out that the coffers are empty and that a PP government would have to apply unpopular austerity measures. And that the left has already warned there will be no peace on the streets if the right governs. Better to let the adversary take the wear and tear.

The right-wing voter who no longer believes in tactical voting

The tactical voting argument has worn thin. Anyone torn between the PP and VOX in 2023 has already seen the result: the «tactical vote» did not stop sanchismo. And if anyone still hesitates, they are reminded that Cándido Conde-Pumpido holds his position because the PP voted for him. That is what tactical voting is for, they conclude.

The consequence is that the flow of votes toward VOX is accelerating, according to participants. Voters are not hesitating: they are switching en masse. The PP's campaign, instead of slowing it down, speeds it up every time it focuses on the right's internal adversary rather than on the Government.

The PP as a blue PSOE: the thesis that keeps gaining ground

The idea that the PP and PSOE are the same thing has stopped being a quip and has settled into the analysis. Both parties need each other, both share the two-party farce, and both have racked up corruption cases without their electorate budging. The PP, in this reading, does not deceive anyone: it betrays. And the PSOE, at least, is upfront about it.

The result is an electorate that feels cheated all the same. Abstention is growing among those who believe that voting only legitimizes the two usual parties. And those who keep voting increasingly do so as if choosing between two known evils.

What could happen on November 29

Given all this, the most likely scenario is that the PP loses votes to the right and fails to win them back in the center. The prediction, with reservations: if VOX surpasses the 20% threshold, the Popular Party's stumble will be hard to hide. And if it does not, the PP will have spent the campaign talking about VOX instead of talking about what concerns Spaniards. In both cases, the winner is named Sánchez.