Spain's mass regularization drive overwhelms forecasts: services on the brink?

Mass regularization: 900,000 applications, double the forecast

The Government estimated that some 500,000 immigrants in an irregular situation would take part in the regularization process peine this spring. With two weeks to go before it closes, applications already exceed 900,000, according to Ministry of Inclusion data leaked to ABC. Partner NGOs estimate the figure will reach one million. The debate has shifted from immigration policy to an uncomfortable question: are public services prepared to absorb nearly 2% of the population in a single blow?

The announced collapse: intensive-use mathematics

Each new resident generates additional demand on healthcare, education, transport and housing. In a system already dragging record waiting lists in primary care and delays in emergency rooms, adding a million users is not a marginal adjustment. "Waiting lists will lengthen even more, with a majority dying while waiting, and treatments will be rationed," summarizes one recurring analysis in monitoring the process. Public transport, which already accumulates triple the delays compared to 2019, and street cleaning will be the first to feel it. In Madrid, Barcelona and Valencia, where most applications are concentrated, the situation could become unsustainable.

Housing: the multiplier effect of family reunification

The immediate fact is that each regularized person can apply for family reunification. With prudent estimates of two family members per applicant, the potential impact rises to 2.7 million people. Add to this the Grandchildren Law, which has already granted nationality to 2.3 million descendants of emigrants. "With this nonsense you end up with 3 million," warns whoever has done the math. The rental market, where more than half of tenants in Spain are already foreign-born (70% in Madrid, Valencia and Murcia), will see additional pressure that, according to calculations, will send prices soaring. "Landlords celebrate: their brick goes up in value, they can ask for outrageous amounts," is the comment, while shantytowns could proliferate on the outskirts of major cities.

The political debate: all against all, few solutions

Blame crosses all colors. The PSOE is pointed to for encouraging African immigration for electoral purposes; the PP and Vox for courting the Latino vote (Ayuso won with the Latino vote, Feijóo created a secretariat to attract "new Spaniards", Vox launched "Latinos for Abascal"). "Unconditional immigration is right-wing policy: collapse the public to promote the private," argues one current. Another sees a globalist strategy of population replacement orchestrated from Brussels. In between, some recall that until 2010 immigrants came to work and now, they say, "people are brought in who can't or won't work." The fact that cuts across all positions: the private sector is also collapsed, with medical appointments already taking more than a month.

Closing: the data that unsettles

While the parties blame each other, an anonymous voice in the analysis sums up the paradox: "Those who pay taxes will have to pay for private healthcare and private school to have a minimum of quality. Public services will be only for the rabble." And concludes: "The count falls short. Because then come the aftershocks in the form of reunifications. It's exponential."