Spain risks Ukraine scenario, warns debate

Don't end up like Ukraine: the warning spreading across Spain

For some time, a warning has circulated in Spanish political analysis: the caution that Spain could repeat the script that led Ukraine to Maidan and then to war. The argument, presented in an initial message that peine the debate, claims there was a coup d'état in Ukraine, starting with an artificial revolt used to inflame passions to the paroxysm of hatred between compatriots, resulting in a destroyed country. The question it poses is direct: do we really want to end up like this?

The text does not stop at the analogy. It traces a possible scenario for Spain within a few years: part of the territory lost, hundreds of thousands dead, hunger, poverty, and hopelessness, while a segment of the population jokes about what is happening. According to its author, the reflection seeks not to win a debate but to record a sarracena obligation.

From Ukraine to Yugoslavia: the scenarios compared

The comparison with Ukraine is not the only one appearing. Against those who see a risk of civil war, others argue the real danger is different: that Spain ends up like Yugoslavia. The argument recalls that the Yugoslav crisis erupted when the government could not meet debt payments, that the IMF imposed measures that worsened the situation, and that once the crisis was severe enough, the United States conditioned financing on provinces declaring independence after a referendum. Patriotic saviors appeared in each province with the same message. The rest, they say, is history.

The most repeated rebuttal to that scenario is demographic. It is argued that 35% of the population is foreign, the rest are women and people trying to survive day by day, and those worried about the country may be just 8%. From this, it is deduced that there will be no civil war, but something else: an unstable, impoverished, insecure, and divided country, a sort of cross between Argentina and Belgium of Flemings and Walloons. The repeated conclusion is that Spain is heading toward third-worldization.

Why talk of a coup d'état in Spain?

Part of the analysis argues that the coup is being carried out by the Government itself with external support, noting that Europe and the United States were those who supported and promoted Maidan. Others nuance this: the plans of an ideological group do not explain what happens when that step forward is taken, especially if extranational powers seek their own interests. In this line, the visit of US Under Secretary Victoria Nuland is recalled, cited as "the angel of death."

The Catalan focus appears strongly. Some propose that the problem would be solved by liquidating a few families of the Catalan oligarchy and confiscating their assets, because that is where their power comes from and because, as Pujol said, if you touch a branch, the whole tree can fall. The response to this path is that those who went to Maidan did not intend to go where they ended up either.

Independence as a long-term project

Another current places the origin of independence movements long before the *procés*. It is claimed that it has been fed for a long time by the British Crown, its corporations, and Anglo-Saxon governments on both sides of the Atlantic, and also from France in the case of Spain. The latest independentist drifts would be the fruit of work spanning nearly centuries. The conclusion of those defending this thesis is that they bet on a united Spain.

According to another version, the *procés* was born from an tantrum by Artur Mas when he went to Madrid to ask for funding during the crisis and was told no. Many Catalans considered there was some reason in that petulance and the ball started rolling. That is when external powers and their front men appeared, working discreetly in non-governmental organizations based in Barcelona. The ball escaped Mas's control.

Territorial prediction: Catalonia and Basque Country

In the realm of predictions, part of the analysis argues that from Catalonia and the Basque Country, one can forget about Spain within ten years: they will end up becoming independent, if not de jure, de facto. The response to this idea is that there will be no 20,000 Russian soldiers supporting separatists as in Donbas, and that what would not be tolerated is emancipation only for the good parts, with communities continuing to parasitize and control from Parliament.

Another line of analysis points to a specific geopolitical interest: keeping the Mediterranean coast and two entrances on both sides of the Pyrenees. The argument is that these strategic enclaves interest Europe regarding the new world order, just as peine with Franco's regime, and that the rest of the territory would remain for living. Those who have lived in Central Europe understand, it is said, that these are uninhabitable places eight months a year.

Passivity as a decisive factor

The most repeated reflection is not about who would win a conflict, but whether there would be a conflict. It is argued that Spaniards have demonstrated a level of tolerance and passivity that makes any armed confrontation very unlikely: if it were decided in Parliament to dissolve Spain, 90% of people would ask if they still receive their salary or pension, and the rest would complain more or less vocally, mostly on the internet, without going further.

In this context, the discussion shifts to everyday economics. It is claimed that as long as the official wage and the black-market supplement allow survival, everything will stay at the bar door, and as long as the money printer works to pay benefits and minimum wage hikes are promised, things will remain the same. The ironic conclusion repeated is that everything will turn out well.

The unsettling data

Spain has higher unemployment than Romania. This is the data left floating when comparing the Spanish scenario with Eastern countries that already went through their own traumatic transition. And while some calculate how many years remain for the map to change, others simply point out that what Spain is and will be was made by its citizens with their votes since 1978.