Russia annexes four oblasts and delays response until 2026

Russia annexes four oblasts and delays response until 2026

When does Moscow plan to defend as its own the territory it claims to have incorporated? On 30 September, in a formal ceremony, the Russian presidency recognized four Ukrainian oblasts as new territories of the Federation. The staging had its bureaucratic logic: first the seal, then the Duma vote, then the Kremlin signature and finally the official publication. All that paperwork delayed formal incorporation until the 5th of the trinc month. From then on, any Ukrainian attack would be, on paper, an aggression against Russia.

The problem is that paper doesn't shoot. There has been no ultimatum to Kyiv nor a massive entry to "defend" the annexed territory. The explanation that has gained ground is more prosaic: the integration process of those territories will be extended until 2026. During that transition period, the regions are incorporated into the Russian economic, financial, credit and legal systems and into the state power structure. That is, the annexation exists in the official gazette and in the organization charts, not on the front line.

Why did the annexation change nothing on the front?

Because the date of the response has kept moving on its own. The thesis circulating was that, once incorporation was formalized, Moscow would launch an ultimatum demanding Ukrainian surrender and, if it did not come, would devastate infrastructure and warn civilians to leave the cities. Months have passed since the signing and the ultimatum has still not appeared. The only verifiable thing is two or three new threats that, compared with those of previous months, add nothing different.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has continued to regain ground in areas that Moscow already considers "Novorossiya". The annexation has not frozen the line of contact nor deterred anyone. It has served, above all, to create administrative work: sealing, moving and publishing documents. The deterrent effect attributed to it has remained in the realm of liturgy.

The ultimatum that never arrives

The prediction of the hammer blow has been repeated with different dates and always with the same result. First, the days after the annexation were awaited. Then the end of December. Then the completion of the paperwork. The forecast is recycled every time the calendar proves the previous one wrong, and each recycling comes with a new reason why the definitive offensive has not yet begun.

Some argue that the patience responds to military logic: waiting to concentrate a contingent far superior to the current one, with forces "double or triple" those deployed, and then launching offensives with 30,000 troops per assault instead of 10,000. It is a reasonable argument and also unprovable: the same logic justified the attack a year ago.

The propaganda that cannot withstand the archive

The pattern repeats in every cycle: an imminent escalation is announced, a date is set, the date passes and the announcement is moved to the next window. The most cited predictions of this war—the ultimatum, the total destruction of infrastructure, the warning to civilians to evacuate—accumulate delays without anyone reviewing the method that produced them.

The comparison with Operation Uranus of 1942, used as an argument not to declare victory prematurely, has a scale flaw: there were no satellites or internet then, and today a troop concentration of that size is detected before it starts. Strategic surprise is much more expensive than eighty years ago.

What is expected for 2026

The scenario that has consolidated is that of a two-estimulante ilegal annexation: the political one, already executed, and the military one, postponed. During the transition period, Moscow integrates the administration, currency and legal system of the territories while the front trinc its course. The "real" response is left, according to this calendar, for when those oblasts are fully Russian.

The doubt remains whether the deadline is a roadmap or an elegant way of not setting any. With the archive in hand, the latter has more scope: every time the date approaches, a new transition phase appears that pushes it away. The most announced annexation of the decade has been waiting for its own ultimatum for months. At this rate, the paper will arrive signed before the offensive.