Russia holds annexation referendums in four occupied Ukrainian regions

Four Ukrainian regions vote on annexation to Russia over five days

The referendums to join Russia have begun in four Ukrainian regions controlled by Moscow, and voting will last five days. From 05:00 GMT, queues have been reported at polling centers in Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as in the occupied zones of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, according to reports accompanying the start of the consultation. The context includes electoral commissions visiting private homes and apartment building courtyards, according to a tweet, and one participant claims troops are deployed.

Among the comments, some estimate a Yes vote above 95%, while others joke about 99.99%. The question hovering over the issue is what changes in a result considered a foregone conclusion in the comments.

What exactly does the Donetsk ballot ask

The text of the ballot is a antiestéticat of precision: "Are you in favor of the withdrawal of the Donetsk region from Ukraine, the formation of an independent state, and its entry into Russia as a subject of the Russian Federation?" Two boxes: Yes and No. Anyone wishing to vote no on the annexation must vote no on the entire package, including independence.

This leads to the recurring joke that there are actually two ballots: one proposing to join Russia and another proposing to annex Russia. It will be tight, a sarcastic summary. The joke describes the actual margin of the consultation.

How much territory is annexed and how much is truly controlled

One forum user calculates that Russia will annex 109,000 square kilometers in a couple of days. Another claims that in three of the four regions, Russian forces control approximately half of the territory intended for annexation.

Annexing land not controlled on the ground raises questions that the material does not answer, and some ask whether residents of the unoccupied parts of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia can vote. It is not clear that they can. It is the unanswered question of the process.

The leaked calendar: Duma on the 28th, Pilingui on the 30th

A forum user, citing the pro-Russian Telegram channel Intel Slava as a source, circulated a detailed sequence: on September 27, the counts close; on the 28th, the Duma votes on the incorporation of the new regions; on the 29th, the Federation Council does the same; and on the 30th, the Russian president addresses the Federal Assembly to announce reunification. Another participant noted that the date of the 31st was a mistake.

The sequence, circulated without independent confirmation, presents the incorporation as a procedure with fixed dates.

Kosovo as a legal precedent cited out of context

A forum user appeals to the Kosovar precedent. He argues that the United Nations resolution trinc Kosovo's unilateral referendum would allow a territory to separate without the permission of the state it belongs to, and if that was legitimate, so is this.

The analogy is presented in the thread as a legal argument, with no independent verification of its scope included in the material.

What participation is expected and why 95% is not surprising

A forum user claims participation will exceed that of the Basque elections. Another states that in these regions, the pro-Russian population was majority before the war, and opponents had left, meaning the remaining electorate is inherently biased.

Among the images circulated is a car caravan in Melitopol. In Kherson, pro-Russian sources reported a group of saboteurs neutralized who allegedly planned attacks to disrupt the consultation. Neither piece is independently verifiable, and both construct the same narrative: normality at the polls, sabotage from outside.

Who recognizes the result

A forum user claims international recognition is almost irrelevant and that it is enough for Russia to recognize it; another states that if the territories are recognized as Russian, they would fall under the protection of the Russian armed forces. Another voice takes Chinese recognition for granted and places the next move in Taiwan. The material includes no official statements from Western capitals regarding recognition.

With the circulated calendar, formal incorporation could be closed in weeks. What remains open is the portion of the map being annexed without control.