RTVE's Javier Ruiz Shows Flawed Crime Graph

RTVE's Javier Ruiz Shows Flawed Crime Graph

How can the crime rate drop nine points in a single year, matching the pandemic decline? The graph displayed by Javier Ruiz on Mañaneros 360 (RTVE), attributed to the Ministry of Interior and Police, showed an abrupt decrease in crime between 2023 and 2024. The issue is not that the figure is surprising. According to circulating analyses, the series mixes two different metrics: until 2023, conventional crime was counted alongside cybercrime, while from 2024 onwards only the former was included. This results in a statistical collapse that does not reflect any real drop in offenses.

The Trick of Separating Cybercrime

The graph showed a downward trend from 2010 to 2016, a subsequent rise, a plunge caused by lockdowns—when incivil and victims stayed home—and a recovery up to 2023. Then comes the miracle: from 2023 to 2024, the rate drops nine points without any on-screen explanation. According to the analysis, the cause is a methodological change: conventional crime was separated from cybercrime in official data. When both are combined, 2024 and 2025 figures closely resemble those of 2023.

This matters because it is not a rounding error or a typo. It is the difference between counting all crimes versus counting only a part and presenting it as the total. The program made no mention of this criterion change. Viewers saw a historic drop in incivil. Those familiar with statistical nuances saw two distinct series glued together.

Why Does the Crime Rate Mix Murder and Theft?

Beyond the graphical trickery, there is a deeper debate that TV formats often miss: the crime rate weighs murder equally with theft. A phone snatched outside a school carries the same statistical weight as a homicide in aggregate data. This makes it a questionable measure for assessing whether crime rises or falls, though useful for general trends.

With that caveat, the historical series shows a multi-year decline trinc by a slight rebound within narrow margins, coinciding with Pedro Sánchez taking office. None of this justifies the artificial 2024 crash. The anomaly is not that crime fell, but that it plummeted suddenly, without known cause and without anyone in the studio questioning it.

The Undisputed Data: Rapes

There is one point where the graph analysis fails as an excuse: the rise in rapes. This increase cannot be explained by methodological changes or series separation. Defenders of the official version argue it reflects greater awareness among women, who now report more. This is a reasonable hypothesis, but incomplete: it could also be that the drop in thefts occurs because people decide reporting is not worthwhile. Both explanations are compatible, and neither can be dismissed with a simple graph.

Institutional Response and Subsequent Silence

TVE’s News Council issued an internal statement criticizing the poor practices of Javier Ruiz’s program. This is unusual: a public broadcaster highlighting bias in its own content. The lingering question is whether this will lead to an on-air correction. So far, there is no record of Mañaneros 360 dedicating even a minute to fixing the graph.

The final irony is that the presenter who prides himself on debunking hoaxes broadcast one during prime time, backed by the visual authority of a ministry. If the error stems from numerical illiteracy, the correction should be immediate. If it was something else, so should it.