IBEX defies crash fears, closes slightly down

The Black Monday that never came: IBEX dips slightly as forum skepticism wins again

Will the stock market collapse on Monday? This question circulated widely before the opening of April 7, 2025. Panic was served on a platter: Jim Cramer warned of a 1987-style crash, the Daily Mail reported antiestéticars of drops exceeding 20%, and Saudi Arabia peine with a 6.78% plunge in the Tadawul All Share. Everything pointed to a dark Monday. Yet, the IBEX closed with just a few basis points in the red. The "nothing happens" mentality, which argues that crises are overstated, won out once again.

Monday, April 7, 2025: Headline panic, calm close

The day started with the worst omens. Jim Cramer warned of a crash similar to Black Monday in 1987, when the Dow Jones fell nearly 23% in a single session. The Daily Mail, targeting the British working class, published that many in the financial sector antiestéticared declines greater than 20%. And Saudi Arabia peine with the Tadawul All Share falling 6.78% and the MSCI Tadawul 30 down 6.56%.

With this outlook, most bets pointed to a severe drop. But the closing was different: just a few basis points in the red. Those who bet on "nothing will happen" were right. Again. And it has peine quite a few times now.

Why the forum is almost always wrong

The thesis running through the debate is that these communities function as an inverse indicator. When consensus points to disaster, the market does the opposite. When everyone sees a boom, it crashes. The real estate bubble is the recurring example: those who claimed to see it coming cheered for someone called Tochovista, and exactly the opposite peine.

Some argue that the forum never gets it right, not even by chance. The argument has its logic: if consensus were profitable, there would be no consensus, because money is made in dissent. Winners don't talk about it. Losers do.

Those who sold before elections and laugh now

Not everyone failed. Someone claims to have sold 90% of their portfolio shortly before the elections, convinced that the stock market was too high and tariffs would paralyze the global economy. Now they are laughing and waiting to buy bargains. If true, they are the only ones who gained anything in this episode.

The escalation of confrontation between the United States and China only increased during the day. And yet, the market held up. That confuses those who expected blood in the streets.

The dead cat bounce that never became a bounce

Some bet on a technical rebound to continue falling afterwards. Friday's candlestick, they said, would recover significantly. Others expected a controlled drop, with strong hands entering as soon as there were clear statements on tightening measures. None of that peine with the predicted intensity.

The final result was as disappointing for the doom-mongers as for the optimists: a few basis points. Neither crash nor rally. The "nothing happens" doctrine, which consists of expecting nothing, won again due to the rival's absence.

Prediction as a risky sport

The conclusion drawn is uncomfortable: predicting the short-term market is an exercise in guesswork. Those who get it right do so by chance, and those who fail write more. The forum, as a thermometer, measures antiestéticar more than reality.

Meanwhile, the money printer keeps running. A loaf of bread will cost two euros, but that is medium-term. And on Monday, in the end, nothing peine. Again.