Puigdemont rejects abstention, complicating Spanish investiture

Puigdemont demands yes or no vote, leaving investiture in limbo

The investiture is not on track; it is stalled. The session has been pushed to the last day allowed by regulations, according to one participant, a scheduling detail that reveals the obvious: support is not secured. And the latest move attributed to Carles Puigdemont tightens the tension further: Junts rules out abstention and demands a clear yes or no vote, removing Coalición Canaria from the equation and reducing maneuvering room. In short: more electoral noise and less flexibility.

What demanding a yes or no vote for the investiture means

An abstention is a loose screw that allows tightening elsewhere. A yes or a no, however, closes the door. It is argued that forcing an explicit vote makes Pedro Sánchez's investiture difficult, because with a Junts abstention there would be more options to reach a majority. This move also leaves the Canary Islands party, previously seen as a wildcard, without a role. The investiture shifts from negotiation to examination.

Arithmetic does not forgive. A circulating calculation distributes 120 seats to PSOE and 137 to PP, totaling 257 between them, figures that alone decide nothing while other groups stretch the limits. The problem is not the size of the blocs, but who is willing to move at the last minute.

Why a repeat election might benefit Junts

One participant defends an uncomfortable hypothesis: repeating elections benefits Junts. With new Catalan elections on the horizon, the formation could profit from its standoff with the State and portray ERC as complicit with the Government of Spain. ERC would appear as a weak separatist force, while Junts would retain the majority of the pro-independence vote. And this is not a bluff, he adds: Puigdemont has already shown he can put the State against the ropes.

The doubt is psychological, not mathematical. It is maintained that the former president is a firm believer in his cause and that ideology could weigh more than practical interest. If so, even an amnesty approved before the investiture would not force him to invest Sánchez: once granted it cannot be undone, and the non-fulfillment of the referendum would remain the argument for voting no.

The PNV and the cost of being exposed

Basque nervousness is another ingredient. If the investiture collapses at the last breath, the PNV is left without a safety net. The PSE plays as referee for the future regional government, and calculations cross here: if socialists do not facilitate the investiture, they will be accused in Euskadi of handing power to more radical positions, with EH Bildu rising. Uncertainty shifts from Congress to regional parliaments.

Podemos' five MPs and loose pieces

On the left flank, the hypothesis raised by a participant is that the five Podemos MPs vote no. It would be textbook revenge, and with a repeat election they could run under their own brand without current travel companions, improving results. Yolanda Díaz appears described as hesitant after weeks of sounding out the protagonist. Five seats are enough to tip the balance.

At the other extreme, some assume the PP would not field Feijóo again and would seek another candidate, while another participant speculates that Sánchez might try to fish for a disguised Popular Party abstention framed as a state pact. These are scenarios, and must be read as such: none of this is confirmed.

Budgets, pensions, and the bill for paralysis

Without agreement there are no budgets, and passing them to govern in harmony is the other litmus test, according to one forum user. Another argues that Bildu can pressure the PNV if it includes raising pensions in its program. Paralysis is not free: it costs legislative time and credibility.

The scenario of repetition has a horizon: January. There is talk of voting during Christmas holidays, with voters half-engaged and the calendar stuffed into the ballot box. Others respond that no one cheats here and that, if they did, the legislature would become a calvary of crossed vetoes, starting with the budgets.

And what if Puigdemont miscalculates? Uncertainty remains open: some believe they will eventually agree, because half the parliamentary arc depends on it for survival, while others are convinced the former president decides whether elections are repeated or not. No one has the arithmetic closed, and that is exactly why everything is played out on the last day.