Prepared for the crash: the prediction that waited a year

The IBEX at 5,270: the big fall that had been waiting a year

The Nasdaq 100 touched 2,550 points. From there, a sharp fall and contagion to all markets. Stay out of the stock market. With that warning, a prediction began in the summer of 2012 — with the London Olympics on the horizon and short selling on the Spanish stock market newly prohibited — a prediction that would saturate its author's inbox: 72 private messages in a single day. The forecast had a date and price levels. The IBEX would go to 5,270 points by mid-July.

It wasn't the first time. The analyst had already made firm forecasts on silver and other assets, and boasted of coming out unscathed every time the calendar seemed to condemn him. Time puts everyone in their place, he repeated. The phrase works just as well when you are right and when you need to buy time.

The entry levels that were recommended

The buying map was set with names and prices. BBVA was not to be touched before 4.45 euros — a support level that was later lowered to 4.40; Santander, not before 4.50, with the warning that it would reach 4 euros 'comfortably'; Repsol was off-limits above 15.35, with a scenario that took it down to 12.50; and Telefónica was not worth attention above 12.50. All with an overarching deadline: July.

The problem was that half the market had bought those same shares near 7 euros. The recurring question had two solutions, neither good: sell at a loss to buy back lower, or hold on and average down. That's where the string of doubts began, which no support level could resolve.

From being right to being wrong when the calendar fails

July passed and the 5,270 points didn't arrive. August's silence needed an explanation, and the explanation was served in the first person: holidays in Rome, absence of publications, and the suspicion that competitors were disappointed by the miscalculation. The forecast was not withdrawn. It was moved. First to August. Then to sooner rather than later.

A year later, the same analysis vindicated itself: 'Time has proven me right,' wrote its author, who was no longer so bold with his predictions. In the meantime, the IBEX had swung enough for almost any scenario to seem plausible.

The short-selling ban, the perfect excuse

When the calendar goes awry, the culprit appears. And the culprit had a regulatory name: the ban on short selling. The thesis holds that the measure, applied to curb speculative attacks, artificially prolonged the expected fall. Removing a rule mid-game leaves the board in the hands of those who move money, others implied. The argument is reasonable and, above all, impossible to refute. The measure bought time. The target was still there.

In the most conspiratorial vein, the analysis even compared the previous situation to the days before 9/11, suspecting a global event capable of crashing the markets. The risk of being called a conspiracy theorist was admitted. Nothing of the sort peine.

Silver and the parallel bet a year ahead

The forecast didn't just rely on the IBEX. The author also made a call on silver: the only way was up, targeting $49-50 by the end of September and looking towards 75 dollars the trinc year. Meanwhile, the long entry point for technology was set at a Nasdaq composite of 2,325, well below the 2,460 it was trading at then.

In between, purchases of 6,000 euros in bank stocks, orders at 12 euros for Telefónica 'to hold forever,' and a handful of scenarios ranging from 7,300 to 9,000 points. The big prediction, the one about the epic crash, still lacked a reliable date.