IBEX above 9,000 in September: October targets 10,200

IBEX closes September above 9,000: the Fed changed everything

How many times can the same catastrophe be announced without it arriving? Throughout September 2013, the Spanish market debated two opposing scenarios: surpassing August highs or visiting 7,000. In the end, it did a third thing. It held. The IBEX closed the month above that trendline that had been acting as a ceiling for months, reached 9,170 points in the last week, and left everyone looking at October with a mixture of greed and cold sweat. The figure no one disputed was 8,980, the line that had to be beaten in the monthly close. And it was beaten.

What changed in September 2013: the Fed delays the end of stimulus

The trigger had a proper name: the Federal Reserve delayed the end of stimulus and maintained its debt purchase program. A single headline was enough for the calendar to stop mattering and for everyone to start operating on the same assumption: as long as there are bond purchases, there is a floor.

The calendar was not a rumor; it was published. For September 27th and 30th, the New York central bank had scheduled debt purchases between 4,750 and 5,750 million dollars. With that on the table, betting on the short side was swimming against the current. The most repeated interpretation was simple: you have to have the FED.

The IBEX price map: from 8,650 to 10,200

With the monthly close resolved, the next debate was about altitude. How far? The most repeated scenario set first the closing of the gap at 8,650 and, from there, a clear path to 10,200. In between, the psychological target: the twelve thousands, from where the title of the conversation itself came and where almost everyone was pointing.

There was no consensus on the path. The less optimistic warned that the month could end with a long wick on the monthly chart: rising, yes, but leaving a shadow above that would later be paid for. The convinced bears maintained that the close above the trendline was merely a postponed correction, with the EuroStoxx50 and its daily MACD about to cross downwards as proof. A small technical detail. Sometimes the detail is everything.

Telefónica, banks, and the rest of the shopping list

In terms of individual stocks, the conversation revolved almost entirely around an uncomfortable question: why is Telefónica rising less than the index? With the IBEX heading towards 10,000, the operator remained anchored. The most circulated calculation: at 7 euros, the company is worth about 32,000 million; at 10, about 46,000; at 14, 65,000. In a normalized scenario, it was argued, it should be worth much more. The problem, others replied, is not the cash flow—it hasn't fallen by half—but the debt and relentless competition.

The banks were doing their usual: asking for money. Capital increases at Banco Sabadell and Monte dei Paschi were announced, and the interpretation was unanimous: when the balance sheet tightens, the shareholder pays. The underlying suspicion was that this was just the beginning.

There was more movement on the periphery. BME experienced a +5% swing in a single session that no one could fully explain. Abertis confirmed the sale of the airports in Belfast and Stockholm, as well as the concession in Orlando. And in the rumor mill, a calculation circulated strongly attributing to Prisa the rejection of an offer for Santillana of 2,200 million euros, of which about 1,650 would correspond to 75% of the group. If this were confirmed in the press, the person telling the story maintained, the stock would open with a memorable gap upwards. Conditional: for now, it was just a calculation.

There was also room for the old war of announcements. The purchase of Nokia by Microsoft was trinc closely, and the dominant argument was that the Finnish company's aggressive advertising would make the operation profitable for Redmond. Some even wrote down their entry level: below 30, it said. It wasn't the only one who took a stand.

The ghost of October and the mirror of 1954

The seasonal classic was missing: the antiestéticar of October. A study on autumn seasonality in stock markets and an article in the New York Times about the tenth month's psychosis were cited, and it was debated whether autumn statistics are useful or pure folklore. For some, it's a prophecy that fulfills itself because everyone knows about it. For others, it's noise.

What threw more than one person off was another parallel: the S&P 500's behavior in 2013 was replicating, almost day by day, that of 1954, with a correlation coefficient of 0.95 out of a maximum of 1. In 1954, the index rose by 45%. The coincidence, calculated by an analysis firm and reported by an agency, provided food for thought and distrust in equal measure. When a chart looks so much like another from 59 years ago, either there's something structural behind it or it's the most beautiful coincidence of the year.

The fine print that almost no one reads: taxes and commissions

Between charts, material circulated that didn't make the news. One of the most useful analyses of the month was fiscal: since January 1, 2013, after the modification of article 48 of law 35/2006, capital gains generated in less than a year are taxed in the general income bracket—the one for work—while those over a year remain in the savings bracket. Translated: holding a position for twelve months is no longer just a market decision; it's a fiscal decision.

The classic dividend strategy to generate compensable losses was also broken down, and a comparison appeared that makes Spain almost a paradise: preparing and paying taxes requires about 167 hours a year in Spain. In Brazil, the shared figure spoke of 2,600 hours annually. The magic word there is taxation, accompanied by legal uncertainty: rules that change overnight and labor costs that, including charges, approach 90% of gross salary. For a foreign company, an engineer with three years of experience can cost between 6,000 and 7,000 euros per month. That explains more than any chart why some investments go elsewhere.

As a bonus, the usual reminder: there are commissions that banks charge without notice. More than one person received a charge of 12 euros for "international network use" for paying with a card abroad. Enough to close accounts and take their salary elsewhere.

Where the debate is now

The September close set the board. Upwards, a target of 10,200 that only makes sense if the 8,650 gap is closed in an orderly fashion. Downwards, the usual doubt: that the rise is due to liquidity and not profits, and that the last one in pays the party. Those who went short with a stop at 9,250 at the daily close did not have a comfortable month, and they know it.

The anomaly, and here's the interesting part, is that a whole month talking about the IBEX ended up being about everything except the IBEX. About taxes, bank commissions, the Fed, Brazil, whether Telefónica is worth 7 or 11 euros, and how long it took the S&P to recover from the 1929 crash level. In the end, the index achieved what almost no one dared to guarantee: closing September above the ceiling. And now comes October, that month that, according to statistics, is scary.

Antiestéticar that is warned about, with charts and all, every year since statistics have existed. In the end, it turns out that seasonality works: whoever cites it afterward is always right.