Gold at $7,000: The Projection Dividing the Market

Cava's Gold at $7,000 Clashes with a Decade of Sideways Movement

Gold is heading to $7,000 per ounce. Even $21,000. The projection comes from analyst José Luis Cava and lands amidst the metal's surge, with the gram already nearing 100 euros. The problem with the euphoria is different: the price has been stagnant for over a decade, and the stock market has outperformed it. Both points are true, and which one carries more weight will decide the next move.

Where the $7,000 and $21,000 Figures Come From

The thesis isn't industrial; it's monetary: gold rises because fiat money collapses due to printing. Cava takes it to the extreme with a range from $7,000 to $21,000 per ounce, and other voices point in the same direction: some place the metal at $7,000 by the end of 2026 and silver at $700, while others announce a massive rally about to start.

Not everyone buys the narrative. The jump to $21,000 is based, according to one participant who reviewed the numbers, on a flawed proportion. The high figure relies more on faith than arithmetic.

The Decade Gold Lost to Equities

The data most unsettling to converts are the long-term figures. Starting with 10,000 euros invested in the S&P 500 in February 1992, by July 2025, that same capital would have grown to 324,631 euros. In gold, it would be 175,642 euros. The index performed 314% better.

And it's not an isolated case. The metal endured a first period of stagnation between 1995 and 2005, and a second, even more painful one, between 2012 and 2022: an entire decade where gold not only didn't rise but fell. Anyone who bought at the peak in 2012 has been waiting thirteen years.

Hence the most repeated answer among proponents: gold isn't rising; currencies are falling. Every time money is printed and devalued, the ounce remains the same, but the banknote is worth less.

Why Is Gold Rising If the Economy Is Doing Well?

Because the inflation felt in the pocket doesn't align with the official figures, argue those holding metal. As an example, an uncomfortable calculation is repeated: the cost of groceries would have increased by 36% in one year in Spain, a percentage not well reflected by the CPI. If the cost of living rises at that rate and gold is trading near 100 euros per gram, the simple math is evident.

Debt as an Argument: Up to $33,300 Per Ounce

The most ambitious reasoning looks not at the present but at liabilities. According to one of the calculations circulating in the debate, Western public debt is estimated between $70 and $80 trillion; the available gold worldwide is about 210,000 tons, equivalent to 6.75 billion ounces. If the metal were used as collateral to cover even a portion of that debt, the equilibrium price per ounce would be: $11,100 with 10% coverage, $22,200 with 20%, and $33,300 with 30%.

On this basis, another hypothesis is added: that the US Treasury will unilaterally revalue gold to ease its balance sheet, pushing the ounce above $20,000. No one has done it. But in the market, some calculate that there are more than 30 ounces of paper gold for every real physical ounce, making the mechanism more than just a fantasy.

Confiscation, CBDCs, and Gold You Can't Sell

The risk almost no one discusses isn't the price, but the exit. The United States banned gold ownership between 1933 and 1974: those who hid it died without accessing it. The modern threat has another name: the programmable digital euro, capable of limiting where and what you buy. With gold at $200,000, argue the most pessimistic, the state will not allow individuals to hold it peacefully. The metal would shine in the safe deposit box, not in the current account.

Salary Measured in Ounces

There's a colder way to look at it. According to one participant's testimony, a salary that has doubled in fifteen years now buys five times fewer ounces than then. Measured in gold, purchasing power has rapidly declined. In the same vein, some believe housing prices in ounces have fallen, and some await the day when neighborhood apartments can be exchanged for a handful of coins.

The underlying bet seems clear: gold rises because paper falls, not the other way around. How much and when remains unknown territory.