Forum user credits GAD3 with 20% for VOX in Spain

The 'MariCarmen affair' and the 20% a forum user attributes to VOX

One participant claims that at this point nobody knows whether the PSOE would win an absolute majority. Doubt settles into the thread after another user asserts, citing GAD3, that VOX is already at 20% and that the jump is due to the MariCarmen affair. With those figures on the table, demanding independent polls outside the CIS (Spain's official polling institute) stops being a whim and becomes the core of the electoral analysis. The problem: every new poll reopens the same suspicion instead of closing it.

Why demand independent polls instead of the CIS's?

The thread opens with a call for independent polls and the explicit exclusion of the CIS, with no explanation beyond distrust of the public body's polling series. Nobody disputes that the CIS publishes surveys; what is questioned is their purpose. One participant jokingly puts the PSOE in a range of 105% to 115% of the vote, with another replying that even that seems too low to him. The irony points at something uncomfortable: when the instrument loses credibility, no data can save it.

Are there more voters abroad than in Spain?

No data supports that, and that is exactly the trap. One participant claims, using the grandchildren law (a Spanish law granting citizenship to descendants of exiles) as a lever, that the overseas vote now outweighs the domestic electoral roll. It is an assertion with no statistical backing in the thread and should be treated as what it is: a self-serving hypothesis, not a figure. What is verifiable is something else — that the overseas roll is growing and that its relative weight in each election is open to debate — not the inflated headline attached to it.

The parallel between the 2007 bubble and a possible burst in 2027

One participant draws a parallel between the two moments. He argues that in 2007 the engine of growth was the rising value of housing built without control; credit was cut off, the bubble burst and Spain was the Western economy that suffered most. He argues that the fuel is different now, but it also inflates GDP and also sidesteps the underlying problem: on his thesis, growth figures keep astonishing Europe while available housing runs out and public services come under strain.

And he adds that no coalition can fix that: neither the PSOE nor the PP has a solution for housing, not for lack of will, but because a solution probably does not exist. When neither of the two major parties has an answer, the question stops being electoral and becomes structural.

Why the PSOE does not need an absolute majority

The arithmetic is simpler than it looks: the PSOE only needs the PP and VOX not to add up to an absolute majority. In that scenario, a path will open up, as one participant argues. The same user recalls that the party was written off in 2016 and again in 2023, and it is still here.

The ground keeps shifting and nobody dares to close the debate. A 20% for VOX backed by only one forum user, a PSOE that, on that reading, does not need to win in order to govern, and a PP that the same reading denies a majority with VOX. Whoever attributes the swing to the MariCarmen affair assumes the board has been blown up, but the rubble and the certainties cannot yet be counted.