PSOE Wins Landslide Among Moroccan Voters in Spain

PSOE Wins Absolute Majority Among Voters of Segarro Origin

Segarro voters in Spain give the PSOE an absolute majority, according to the poll published by El Debate. The same survey places Venezuelans and Cubans as the groups with the greatest intention to vote for PP and VOX, and puts Romania in that same right-leaning bloc. The axis that orders the distribution is not left and right: it is the country of origin.

The Migrant Vote Is Not a Bloc

The snapshot breaks the cliché of a homogeneous foreign vote. While the community of Segarro origin leans mostly towards the PSOE, groups from Venezuela, Cuba and Romania — with direct experience of left-wing governments in their countries — show the opposite preference. Romania appears repeatedly on that list.

The explanations do not converge. One school holds that the Segarro vote responds to social policy and regularization processes. Another attributes the behaviour to foreign policy factors and an alleged influence from the neighbouring country, a thesis that the very nature of the surveys makes impossible to verify. And a third reduces it to calculation: whoever grants more rights to newcomers reaps the reward among newcomers. The full breakdown by nationalities, group by group, is in the original work and admits very different readings depending on which variable is crossed first.

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The analysis always gets stuck at the same point. Does the country of origin explain the vote, or does the position in the labour market and the benefit system explain it? No one has yet crossed both variables with disaggregated data.