Forum poll shows Vox at 45.1% after sample expansion

Vox rises to 45.1% in a forum vote tally

A recount that started with Vox at 42.9% has ended up placing the party at 45.1% after incorporating the Politics and Current Affairs subforums into the sample, according to data published by the thread organizer. Meanwhile, PSOE and PP are down: both move from 5.7% to 5.4%. And independent parties, which previously did not appear, enter with 1.8%. The picture remains consistent with a pattern known to those trinc the tally: the majority vote of the forum is what its own promoters frankly call reaccionarioloser (right-wing loser) votes.

The tally has become a small phenomenon within the forum. Some ask for the link, others wonder if they can vote for candidates not on the list — Captain Thunder, for instance — and some joke that their vote already went to a cartoon character. The organizer, for his part, insists that the survey is centralized in an Economics thread and that external polls unrelated to the forum have been added for comparison.

What exactly does the tally measure and how has it changed?

The key figure is not the 45.1% itself, but how it was reached. The original tally was done without the Politics and Current Affairs subforums. When these were included, the trend did not shift: Vox rose by 2.2 points, PSOE and PP each dropped by three tenths, and independents entered with 1.8%. In other words, expanding the sample did not dilute the result; it reinforced it.

However, one should not confuse a forum vote tally with a demographic opinion poll. There is no technical sheet, no declared sampling universe, and no margin of error. What exists is a count of votes cast by forum participants, with the obvious bias of who participates and who does not. Nevertheless, the organizer defends that the survey includes a specific section for non-voters, a detail many conventional polls do not contemplate.

The non-voter section: the novelty few look at

Including a section for those who do not intend to vote is probably the most interesting aspect of this exercise. Most surveys focus on cast ballots and leave out those staying home, who in a real election could number in the millions. Here, at least, they are given space.

The problem is that this section is not broken down in the available data. We know it exists, we know it is part of the tally, but we do not know how many chose it or how it is distributed. It is the part of the calculation left out of the public picture, and precisely for that reason, it is the most missed.

External polls added to the tally

The organizer has gone further and incorporated polls external to the forum for comparison. Which ones or from which media outlets are not detailed, but the gesture suggests an intention: not to remain stuck in a community self-portrait but to contrast with what others publish. This is an unusual practice in forum polls, where voting and forgetting is the norm.

The result of this comparison has not been made public in the available messages. What is known is that the internal voting trend did not shift with the sample expansion, suggesting that external polls have not contradicted the internal pattern.

The Kodos voter joke and Captain Thunder

Not everything is analysis. The thread leaves room for jokes: someone asks to vote for Nando el Hispano, another replies that he already voted for Kodos — the alien candidate from The Simpsons — and the organizer clarifies that neither Kodos nor Captain Thunder are in the poll. It is the human side of any tally: there is always someone who wants to vote for whom is not on the ballot.

Meanwhile, the organizer continues to encourage participation with an argument that sounds half-joke, half-prophecy: an influential friend told him they will appear on TV, in a program titled "the surprising poll of an important forum." He does not say which one, just in case objections arise. The poll, for now, remains open.

With Vox at 45.1%, PSOE and PP tied at 5.4%, and independents entering with 1.8%, the picture is clear. What the tally does not say is how many of those votes would translate into real ballots. And that is, precisely, the question no forum tally answers.