Feijóo and the cost of not wanting to win: the campaign that keeps Sánchez in power

Feijóo doesn't want to win: the campaign that hands victory to Sánchez

Feijóo has turned the pre-campaign into an exercise in resisting his own electorate. The thesis running through this week's economic conversation is an uncomfortable one: the Popular Party candidate isn't losing votes over what he keeps quiet, but over what he chooses to say out loud. First came the promise to touch the abortion and euthanasia laws. Then, the announcement of tightening public spending and cracking down on sick leave. Every intervention opens a new front and costs him a pool of votes that was already in his pocket.

The dominant diagnosis is not that Feijóo is incompetent, but something worse for his interests: that he doesn't need to win. Life is better in opposition. With no responsibility for governing, no budgets to balance and none of the daily wear and tear of Moncloa (the Spanish prime minister's office), the Popular Party leader can afford drawing-room pronouncements and not lifting a finger, as the most repeated quip puts it. Governing takes blood, and some argue this candidate lacks it.

Abortion and euthanasia as a minefield

The interview on SER (a major Spanish radio station) left a trail of reactions ranging from astonishment to calls for his early resignation. Feijóo said abortion is guaranteed under current law and did not talk about reforming it, but the mere fact of opening the can of worms of conscientious objection or parental consent for minors was enough for the left's narrative to place him in the hardline camp. Half the population — the part that, in the most cynical reading, equates feminism with being a woman — has stopped listening to the rest of the message.

Some argue the interview was solid and that he fell into no traps. The problem is that the bar was set so low that escaping unscathed gets mistaken for winning. In 2023 he messed up spectacularly; this time he simply didn't mess up again, which is not a governing plan.

Pensioners, civil servants and the vote you don't touch

The announcement of belt-tightening and reviewing sick leave has an electoral cost that can be measured in votes. Civil servants are a captive electoral bloc, and pensioners are the demographic group that watches the most television and antiestéticars the economic future the most. Promising cuts to people who live off a public salary or a pension is a very effective way of losing elections before they are even called.

The paradox is that Feijóo has repeated ad nauseam that he will uprate pensions with inflation. It doesn't matter. The headline that sticks is the spending cuts, not the indexation. And meanwhile, the antiestéticar campaign over pensions keeps working because there are people on the other side who know how to exploit it better.

The candidate who fails to convince even his own

The harshest diagnosis comes from within his own camp: I'll vote for VOX even though it makes me uneasy, because nothing can be worse than what we have. It's the logic of the default tactical vote, the same one that four years ago led many to swallow a candidate they didn't like. The difference is that back then there was hope for change, and now all that's left is the certainty that the country needs something this man doesn't have.

The question hanging in the air is whether Feijóo really wants to govern or whether he prefers to stay in opposition making the occasional empty pronouncement. The answer, judging by appearances, is not the one his voters were hoping for.

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Given this outlook, the most reasonable prediction is that Sánchez will win again without needing to campaign. Feijóo is taking care of everything himself. If in four years we're still in the same place, no one will be able to say they weren't warned.