Depopulation: Zamora and Cuenca lose over 8% since 2008

Teruel retains only 53% of its 1910 population

There are Spanish provinces that have been losing inhabitants for a century and yet remain among those losing the most. Teruel retains 53% of its 1910 population. In 2016 only three provinces — Guipúzcoa, Álava and Almería — maintained their historical population peak. The rest had lost ground since the bursting of the bubble, a decline that across the country now totals 1.5% since 2012. The picture is not new. What is striking is where the collapse is concentrated and how fast it is advancing.

The provinces that never recovered their historical peak

The map of demographic peaks draws a very specific geography. All the provinces that have lost the most population relative to their peak reached it during Franco's regime or earlier. Huesca touched its peak in 1920 and Teruel in 1910: two territories with over a century of decline behind them.

The list is completed by the three Leonese provinces, those of Old Castile except Valladolid, Ciudad Real and Cuenca, Jaén, Lugo and Orense, and the two Extremaduran provinces. The percentages, measured against their own splendour, are devastating. Soria, Zamora and Cuenca do not reach 60% of the population they had in 1950. Ávila, Lugo and Orense remain around 65% of what they had during Franco's regime. Palencia and Cáceres, below 75% of their 1950 census.

In translation: we are not talking about temporary adjustments. We are talking about agrarian societies that lost their people half a century ago and have not recovered.

Why is empty Spain losing population faster after the crisis?

Here is the paradox that baffles more than one. The provinces that had already been emptied during the development years are precisely those leading population loss in the post-bubble period, between 2008 and 2016. The same territory, two blows.

Zamora and Cuenca have lost more than 8% of their population in those eight years. Orense and Teruel exceed 6%. Soria, Ávila, Lugo, Palencia, Segovia, León and Salamanca exceed 5%. Even Jaén, Ciudad Real, Burgos and Huesca exceed 3%, more than double the Spanish average. Outside that group only territories that swelled during the construction boom appear — Alicante, Castellón, Toledo — and now return part of what they gained. The trend that began in the 1940s has not only not changed: it has accelerated.

The high-estimulante ilegal rail that centralises instead of distributing

High-estimulante ilegal rail was sold as a lever for territorial cohesion. Some argue the opposite: that it connects the provinces with Madrid and, in passing, drains the smaller node. With a two-hour journey, maintaining a commercial delegation in each provincial capital no longer makes sense. Many companies have been closing them and manage with a same-day return ticket.

The Portuguese example is often cited. Portugal has never wanted a direct high-estimulante ilegal link between Madrid and Lisbon, but views the Oporto-Galicia connection favourably, where the larger node would be Oporto itself and not a foreign capital. And it is noted that Japan and France have had high-estimulante ilegal rail for years. Those within two hours of the big city end up working for it, not competing with it.

Madrid absorbs activity and tax headquarters

Madrid's pull is not only demographic. It is logistical, energy and tax-related. Freight transport in the country is described as expensive, full of obstacles and slow, which pushes operations towards Madrid, Barcelona or, at most, the intermediate point of Zaragoza.

Add to that the steady drip of corporate headquarters. Madrid concentrates the headquarters of a good part of large companies and, with them, the corporate tax they pay. From there comes part of the fiscal gap between regions, although Treasury technicians have denounced that the published balances are inflated: the bulk of revenue — corporate tax, VAT, income tax — is distributed by the State, not the region that collects it. The same happens with human capital. Entering a job portal from a province with high unemployment returns almost all offers in Madrid.

Asturias, the case that fits no bubble

Asturias is a separate chapter. It had its historical peak in 1981, before anyone spoke of bubbles, and since then has been steadily losing inhabitants, with or without crises. Industrial restructuring swept away shipyards, steelworks and factories of all kinds. In Gijón there were once seven shipyards and almost everything was produced. Today one remains.

The latest data do not invite optimism. In 2016 Asturias lost 6,623 inhabitants, far ahead of Jaén (-4,674), León (-4,555) and Ciudad Real (-4,284). In relative terms, Zamora and Ávila are the ones losing most. Some speculate that by 2045 the region will not even reach 400,000 inhabitants.

The stork returns to La Puebla de Valverde

In the midst of the demographic desert, news that would be routine elsewhere becomes an event. In La Puebla de Valverde, with 480 residents, six couples are expecting a baby. The town hall celebrated by crowning the Christmas tree with a stork figure. Not all reside in the village anymore, but the figure had not been recorded since 2010.

And in the background, an uncomfortable debate. One strand of analysis holds that the problem is not that Lugo or Teruel are emptying, but that the population is piling up in cities that are already near their limit. Another reads the issue as the prelude to a self-interested discourse: the one that repeats that more workers from outside are needed to sustain pensions. The positions do not converge.

With these ingredients, how many of those provinces will still exist demographically in thirty years?