DCA in MSCI World: €20k invested at worst possible time

DCA in MSCI World: €20,000 turns into €29,000

Four years of buying at highs resulted in a 44.60% return. The experiment began on January 3, 2022, the year's first trading day, with the MSCI World at its all-time high. €1,000 per quarter, no currency hedging, no bonds, no rebalancing. As of November 2, 2026, total invested was €20,000 and accumulated shares were worth €28,920.54. The annualized return stands at **14.28%**. The investor did not choose the timing; they got the worst case scenario. Yet the result crushes any deposit account.

The mechanics are so simple they feel almost embarrassing: €1,000 every quarter, referencing the first quote of January, April, July, and October. The fund is the Vanguard Global Stock Index Fund EUR Acc (IE00B03HD191), a pure index tracker for the USD-denominated MSCI World, unhedged. No active management, no guessing market bottoms. The contribution table shows the mechanism precisely: in July 2022, amid global turmoil, €1,000 bought 29.0260 units at €34.452. In October 2026, with the market at record highs, the same €1,000 bought 15.5390 units at €64.354. Nearly half as many units for the same money.

DCA buys expensive yet still wins

The average cost of acquired units is **€44.3379**. The current value is €64.1138. The difference explains the 44.60% total return. There is a paradox highlighted by the tracking itself: the most profitable contributions were neither the first nor the last, but those made when the market seemed like a graveyard. The July 2022 contribution has accumulated a 70% return. The April 2026 contribution, the cheapest in the recent period, gained 7% in just one month.

The DCA strategy — dollar cost averaging, or periodic investing with fixed amounts — does not seek the best price. It seeks to eliminate decision-making. The investor does not choose when to enter; they always enter. When the market falls, they buy more units with the same money. When it rises, they buy less. The long-term result is an average price that smooths peaks and valleys. The experiment demonstrates this with a clarity no commercial brochure achieves: **the worst time to start does not prevent winning**.

Some argue DCA is nonsense since stops are swept away by tweets and fake news. The criticism has logic: if markets move via algorithms and headlines, blind periodic buying may seem like intellectual surrender. But the tracking numbers leave little room for rebuttal. Four years, twenty contributions, one inflation crisis, two bear markets, and a historic recovery. DCA did not avoid any crashes. It survived them.

Indexing as philosophy: Bogleheads and bubble antiestéticars

The discussion quickly broadens to indexing as a mass phenomenon. Part of the analysis argues that if over 90% of the stock market were indexed, efficiency would be lost, creating a bubble by definition. The objection is reasonable but has a logical flaw: an MSCI World index tracker replicates the market average. If there is a bubble in the index, there is one in the entire stock market, including for active managers trying to beat it.

The counter-argument is more pragmatic: if indexing creates inefficiencies, someone will exploit them. Institutional investors buying companies recently expelled from indices — such as BBVA, which left the Euro Stoxx near €2 and returned to €5.5 — prove the market self-regulates. Indexing does not eliminate arbitrage; it redistributes it.

The debate on Boglehead philosophy appears frequently. The consensus is clear: if you use index funds, invest the same amount monthly regardless of rain or shine. Trying to guess when the market is low or high is a rookie mistake. One participant summarizes it with an image worth more than a manual: the best investors are dead ones, because they make no moves. Fidelity studied this, and the result was exactly that.

Hidden costs: fees, dividends, and tax raiding

One of the sharpest criticisms in the thread targets individual stock investing, not DCA. The argument is strong: every dividend paid goes through the Spanish Tax Agency (Hacienda), every sale for rebalancing pays capital gains tax, and that lost money cannot be reinvested to generate more. Long-term, the effect is devastating. An index fund, however, pays nothing to Hacienda until the participant redeems. A 0.19% annual custody fee on some platforms is trivial compared to the fiscal bleeding of a stock portfolio.

Fee comparisons between indexed products also appear. A Nasdaq fund with 0.30% expenses seems expensive against an iShares at 0.10%, but if no alternative exists, the differential is negligible compared to the returns generated. The implicit conclusion: cost matters, but it does not decide the outcome.

Inflation as argument: cash is the riskiest asset

The thread insists on a point beyond stocks: with real interest rates negative — inflation exceeding official rates — idle money in checking accounts loses purchasing power relentlessly. The phrase is brutal and admits no nuance: a savings account or deposit is the right instrument if you want certainty of being poor upon retirement.

The logic is compound interest working against you. The same mechanism that grows an indexed portfolio shrinks cash purchasing power. Every year, money is printed out of thin air, about 8% of the previous year's monetary mass according to calculations used. Staying in liquidity beyond current expenses is giving away purchasing power. The stock market has wind at its back, even if it blows in gusts.

The thread also acknowledges limits: there is no crystal ball. The recommendation is not "invest everything and forget," but "diversify across asset classes, not to earn more but to lose less if things go wrong." The author's actual portfolio combines a Bogle portion with age-associated equity, a permanent portfolio, and a slice of individual stocks. The thread's experiment is only the visible part of the iceberg.

Experiment evolution: from €9,000 to €20,000

The tracking allows precise reconstruction of the evolution. In January 2024, with €9,000 invested, the return was 10.32%. In March 2024, 19.42%. In October 2024, with €12,000, 22.69%. In December 2024, 32.49% and an IRR of 18.15%. In June 2025, with €14,000, the return dropped to 22.00% and the IRR to 10.87%. In May 2026, with €18,000, 36.47%. In July 2026, with €19,000, 43.13%. In September 2026, 44.30%. And in November 2026, with the full €20,000, 44.60%.

The trajectory is not linear. There are periods of sideways movement, drops, and surges. The MSCI World spent months flat before breaking upward. Those who entered in March 2026 saw the index rise over 15% since then. Those starting in 2022 have endured two bear markets and an inflation crisis. The final result is the same: time in the market outweighs timing the market.

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The lingering question is not whether DCA works. These tracking numbers say yes, even starting on the worst possible day. The question is how many people maintain discipline when the market drops 20% and news talks of recession. That separates the true index investor from those using index products for active management. The former buys more. The latter sells. And the latter almost always regrets it.