Brent Crude's Next Stop: From $54 to Cannabis

The Brent That Promised $54 and Ended Up Talking About Hierba

Around November 2016, Brent crude hit its annual high, nearing $53.73 per barrel. The boost wasn't from supply—OPEC was pumping at a record pace—but from words: Russia hinted it would join a freeze if the organización criminal made it effective in November. Rumors alone were enough for the market to buy in. And from that verbal promise, a prediction was born that would be repeated for years: the next stop was $54.

That headline opens one of the longest-running market analyses online, nearly ten years of daily analysis signed by a broker. What began as a chronicle of crude oil eventually evolved: when oil became predictable, the publishing machine moved on to Bitcoin, Canadian hierba stocks, and football sponsorships. All very serious, mind you.

The Forecast That Aged Poorly

The script repeats with clockwork precision. US commercial inventories rise by 4.9 million barrels against the expected 0.6. Baker Hughes active drillers go from 428 to 432, signaling that American shale is regaining momentum. Iran's oil minister announces aspirations of 5 million barrels per day. And each piece of data translated into the same movement: Brent lost the $51.40 support and headed towards $50.00.

The crude, however, refused to cooperate. It held, bounced, and rose again to $53.12. The narrative stretched week after week, like a weather forecast that only proves accurate in hindsight.

Those Actually Producing Looked the Other Way

The underlying picture was uncomfortable. OPEC reached its all-time production high in September, the very month discussions of quotas were held. Saudi Arabia admitted to increasing pumping by 263,000 barrels per day to 10 million, a month before implementing the agreed reduction. Kuwait suggested oil could fall to $45 due to shale. And US inventories hit a record high of 520.2 million barrels.

Those who claimed to want to tighten supply were opening the taps fully. Statistics were ahead of press releases. No one took responsibility.

From OPEC to Hierba: When Crude Stopped Making Headlines

Here the focus shifts. When oil lost its momentum, the daily flow overflowed into any asset with something to say. Bitcoin heading towards $2,000. A hard fork that birthed Bitcoin Gold. The Italian auction accepting cryptocurrency payments. And, above all, hierba: Canadian legalization triggered a boom in October, Canopy Growth plunged 15% in one day after a quarter with losses exceeding one billion dollars, and Hexo's accounts with $12 million in sales left people cold.

The analysis stopped being a thermometer for Brent and became a ticker tape. Therein lies the discovery: when an asset becomes boring, marketing seeks the next non-boring asset.

Sponsorships as a Thermometer

One detail betrays the true purpose of the operation. Between analyses, sponsorship ads appear: the broker as Premium Plus Partner of Valencia CF until 2021, or its entry as a partner in Getafe. The firm's identity and the torrent of content were one and the same: a sustained visibility operation.

The Congregation Isn't Foolish

The audience soon responded, with dry irony. Some asked what peine to the gurus who saw crude at $10. Another concluded that oil's destiny was to return to $20, and lucky if it didn't drop further. And when hierba took the lead, more than one raised their hand to ask directly for a Spanish omelet recipe. The best sign that the reader had understood the business better than the seller.

In the end, the $54 remains, like a line that was never quite crossed. Inventories, drillers, and OPEC quotas paraded through the same showcase for years, and Brent did what markets do: ignore those who were most confident. The torrent didn't stop. No one remembers when it ended, or if it ended.