AfD nears 44% in Saxony-Anhalt as political cordons weaken
An exit poll by ZDF shows the AfD reaching 44% in Saxony-Anhalt, potentially challenging the political firewall maintained by the CDU and other parties.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
AfD nears 44% in Saxony-Anhalt as political cordons weaken
The ZDF exit poll for the Saxony-Anhalt state elections presents a scenario that breaks all previous patterns: the Alternative for Germany (AfD) has reportedly reached 44% of the vote, more than double that of the CDU, which stands at 18.5%. If confirmed, this result would place the party as the undisputed leading force in one of the eastern German states, but it also raises an uncomfortable question: who is going to govern with them?
A historic result hitting the usual glass ceiling
The exit poll data is conclusive. The AfD would obtain 44.0% of the votes, trinc by the CDU with 18.5%, while Die Linke (The Left) and the SPD would tie at 9.0% each. The Greens would enter the regional parliament with 8.5%, Sahra Wagenknecht's BSW would stand at 4.8%, and the FDP would reach 2.5%, falling below the 5% threshold.
The immediate reading is that the AfD is not just winning, but crushing the competition. However, the analysis of the numbers hides the usual trap: the sum of the forces refusing to cooperate with them remains higher. The *cordon sanitaire* (the political firewall), that wall that traditional parties have built in Germany, remains standing, though it is increasingly cracked. The irony is that the party with the most votes is, at the same time, the one with the fewest options to govern.
The BSW factor: the unexpected key
There is a nuance that changes the entire board. If Sahra Wagenknecht's BSW had exceeded 5%, the AfD would have achieved an absolute majority in the regional parliament. With 4.8%, it falls short, but its leader has hinted that it could open the door to a government with Alice Weidel's party. The paradox is that a party born as a split from Die Linke could become the kingmaker for the far-right formation in the German political spectrum.
Meanwhile, the debate over the *cordon sanitaire* intensifies. The question hanging over the analysis is whether the CDU, which already governs the state, will eventually yield to the pressure of a population that has voted massively for the AfD. Recent history in Germany says no, but every regional election in the east brings us closer to the moment when the wall definitively cracks.
The European domino effect: from Austria to France
The result in Saxony-Anhalt is not an isolated case. It is part of a trend sweeping Europe: in Austria, the situation is even more acute; in France, Marine Le Pen awaits her moment; in Italy, Meloni already governs. The resulting analysis is that the rise of the AfD is a symptom of deeper discontent in eastern Germany, where deindustrialization and a sense of abandonment have fueled protest voting.
Some argue that the phenomenon has a geopolitical component. The narrative of Russian influence in the region, with the AfD as a suspected recipient of funds, is recurrent. But others point out that the real problem is the disconnection of political elites from a population that feels like a loser in globalization. The AfD has capitalized on this discontent, and the data confirms it.
What happens now? Arithmetic rules the day
The reality is that, with these numbers, the AfD does not have a majority to govern alone. It needs partners, and all traditional parties have stated they will not strike deals with them. The only way would be an agreement with the BSW, which falls just short of parliament but could hold the key in an eventual repeat election or an unprecedented coalition.
The scenario being drawn is that of a party that wins the election but cannot govern. A situation that, in a democracy, is legal but politically unsustainable in the medium term. The question left hanging is how long the *cordon sanitaire* can be maintained when half of a state's electorate votes for the party they want to exclude. The answer will likely be provided by the next federal elections.
Meanwhile, the pendulum continues its course. The AfD has demonstrated that it can win, but also that winning is not enough. German politics faces its greatest dilemma since reunification: either integrate the most voted party in the east, or perpetuate a system where a significant part of the electorate feels unrepresented. The question is whether the system will hold.
The ZDF exit poll for the Saxony-Anhalt state elections presents a scenario that breaks all previous patterns: the Alternative for Germany (AfD) has reportedly reached 44% of the vote, more than double that of the CDU, which stands at 18.5%. If confirmed, this result would place the party as the undisputed leading force in one of the eastern German states, but it also raises an uncomfortable question: who is going to govern with them?
A historic result hitting the usual glass ceiling
The exit poll data is conclusive. The AfD would obtain 44.0% of the votes, trinc by the CDU with 18.5%, while Die Linke (The Left) and the SPD would tie at 9.0% each. The Greens would enter the regional parliament with 8.5%, Sahra Wagenknecht's BSW would stand at 4.8%, and the FDP would reach 2.5%, falling below the 5% threshold.
The immediate reading is that the AfD is not just winning, but crushing the competition. However, the analysis of the numbers hides the usual trap: the sum of the forces refusing to cooperate with them remains higher. The *cordon sanitaire* (the political firewall), that wall that traditional parties have built in Germany, remains standing, though it is increasingly cracked. The irony is that the party with the most votes is, at the same time, the one with the fewest options to govern.
The BSW factor: the unexpected key
There is a nuance that changes the entire board. If Sahra Wagenknecht's BSW had exceeded 5%, the AfD would have achieved an absolute majority in the regional parliament. With 4.8%, it falls short, but its leader has hinted that it could open the door to a government with Alice Weidel's party. The paradox is that a party born as a split from Die Linke could become the kingmaker for the far-right formation in the German political spectrum.
Meanwhile, the debate over the *cordon sanitaire* intensifies. The question hanging over the analysis is whether the CDU, which already governs the state, will eventually yield to the pressure of a population that has voted massively for the AfD. Recent history in Germany says no, but every regional election in the east brings us closer to the moment when the wall definitively cracks.
The European domino effect: from Austria to France
The result in Saxony-Anhalt is not an isolated case. It is part of a trend sweeping Europe: in Austria, the situation is even more acute; in France, Marine Le Pen awaits her moment; in Italy, Meloni already governs. The resulting analysis is that the rise of the AfD is a symptom of deeper discontent in eastern Germany, where deindustrialization and a sense of abandonment have fueled protest voting.
Some argue that the phenomenon has a geopolitical component. The narrative of Russian influence in the region, with the AfD as a suspected recipient of funds, is recurrent. But others point out that the real problem is the disconnection of political elites from a population that feels like a loser in globalization. The AfD has capitalized on this discontent, and the data confirms it.
What happens now? Arithmetic rules the day
The reality is that, with these numbers, the AfD does not have a majority to govern alone. It needs partners, and all traditional parties have stated they will not strike deals with them. The only way would be an agreement with the BSW, which falls just short of parliament but could hold the key in an eventual repeat election or an unprecedented coalition.
The scenario being drawn is that of a party that wins the election but cannot govern. A situation that, in a democracy, is legal but politically unsustainable in the medium term. The question left hanging is how long the *cordon sanitaire* can be maintained when half of a state's electorate votes for the party they want to exclude. The answer will likely be provided by the next federal elections.
Meanwhile, the pendulum continues its course. The AfD has demonstrated that it can win, but also that winning is not enough. German politics faces its greatest dilemma since reunification: either integrate the most voted party in the east, or perpetuate a system where a significant part of the electorate feels unrepresented. The question is whether the system will hold.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (103 replies).
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