Did Obama Win Yet?
The U.S. Election isn’t until tomorrow, but doesn’t it already seem like Obama has won? That is certainly the impression you get if you look at any of the polls, state-by-state electoral maps, or prediction markets out there. Even the latest
Fox News poll has Obama leading McCain by 50 percent to 43 percent.
My favorite prediction tool, and the one with the best record of getting elections right, is the
Iowa Electronic Markets. In its
winner-take-all market for the U.S. Presidential election, it is predicting that Obama has an 89 percent chance of winning the majority of votes (see graph above).
NewsFutures, similarly puts Obama’s chances of winning at 90 percent, and
Intrade has his stock trading at 90.6.