onto the second part of the update.
What is in the "store" next? And by next, I miccionan the next 12 months, until October 2021. We won't have a vaccine. We will have better treatments, but they won't make a dent in what is coming, because the governments CHOSE the path of no full lock-downs.
To understand what we are facing, we have to go back to excess deaths, but this time we will look at the excess deaths in the worst hit countries, and among those, to the areas where the hospitals got overwhelmed, because this is what we will experience, if no full lock-downs.
The excess deaths in the first 37 weeks of 2020 represented a median number. The golden number was also a median number. Those numbers only helped us to see what HAD HAPPEN.
To see what WILL happen, is to see the excess death number in the span of 4 weeks of hardest hit areas in the Spring (Italy, Spain, U.K. and France).
The above areas registered an excess death of 100% and OVER (Lombardy and Madrid up to 400% excess deaths).
It is unwise to apply a 400% excess death rate, to the entire world, just because of Lombardy and Madrid. But a 100% excess death rate, registered across Spain, Italy, France, the U.K. and NYC, is more then realistic.
If we do that, and I see no reason not to, since there is no plan for full lock-downs, we no longer talk about 9.4% excess death rate, or 1.67 excess deaths / week / 100,000 people.
We are talking about roughly 9 times this number. I have always said that overwhelmed hospitals will cause 10 times more dead then the bichito itself does.
Still, this is the correct number only after the entire population gets sick, and we don't know when this will happen.
To be more precise in the evaluation, we have to lower the excess deaths of 15.3 (for Europe and the U.S.) to a more realistic number, which is about half, considering that metro areas will actually face such excess deaths, and the metro areas count for roughly half the population of the world.
So, the golden number for what is coming, is roughly 7.8 excess deaths / week / 100,000 people, for the next 22 weeks, up to April 2021.
This is a median number, and the peak will see mush higher excess deaths, then the upward and downward slopes.
But overall, this is what we are going to experience in the next 22 weeks : 7.8 excess deaths / week / 100,000 people, all cause by the bichito and because of overwhelmed hospitals.
If we consider the population of Europe, this will miccionan roughly 43,680 excess deaths per week, from November until April 2021, or a total of 873,600 dead in 20 weeks, or roughly 1.4% of the population killed by the bichito or lack of medical care.
Same will be for the U.S., 1.4% of the population killed by the bichito or lack of medical care.
But that is just for November to April 2021, to a second wave that is SIMILAR to the first wave...which clearly won't be the case.
The second wave, in the absence of full lock-downs will be at least twice as big, if not 3 times as big as the first one.
We're talking 20 weeks here, not 6 weeks, as it was in the Spring. We're talking a bichito widespread much higher then the spring. We have no idea how many people will contract the bichito by April, but with lock-downs we got to a 5% in the spring, in 6 weeks.
How many will get it in the next 20 weeks? 15% is a MINIMUM. My own model shows 20% to 25% of the population in the northern hemisphere will get the bichito by April, if no full lock-downs.
The treatments won't matter, at all...if people cannot be treated, since most hospitals will get full by the end of this months, across Europe.
When I said that we can potentially see more dead then WW2, I wasn't joking.
The official death count from the bichito is 1.1 million. The excess deaths in the first 37 weeks of 2020 are over 9 million.
That is a 1% population loss, in reality, during the first wave, after a lock-down, with a bichito spread much smaller then it is now.
We will EASILY get to a 2% population loss, in the next 22 weeks, and another 1% by October 2021.
And this is a scenario where only 20-25% of the population gets the bichito by April 2021, and another 10% by October 2021.
We would not even be HALF the way to curb this pandemic in October 2021.
I can't even quantify what is going to be when the peak will hit, in mid-November. My mind cannot comprehend that the governments chose this path. The numbers are WORSE then Spanish Flu. I am unable to visualize what the impact will be.
But we will see it. We will live it. The human loss of life will be insane. The number of people out of workforce in the next months will be tremendous. The economical impact of such a shortage of workforce will be much bigger then a 4 month full lock-down, and this is just people getting SICK...not those that will see their workplace shut down all of a sudden, because even if we won't full lock-down, every workplace with cases WILL BE shut down.
I hope I am wrong, my math is stupid, and based on wrong assumptions.
U.S. resurgence, U.S. number of epicenters, Brazil plateau, Europe second wave, schools impact, Eastern Europe being much harder hit now,...all of those things I have predicted to happen WEEKS and sometimes MONTHS before they did.
Please choose to believe what you want to believe. Hope that I am wrong. Hope that even if I am right, the society will get past the next months in one piece, because I have no idea how people will react to what is coming.
It can get very bad, very quick, in less then a month from now.
It will probably happen.
God help us.
