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De acuerdo. Entendía más que se debería tratar de un modelo logarítmico porque hablamos de elasticidades y las variaciones son porcentajes.
La diferencia en el caso del SAN radica en que el mínimo ya se habría dado en los 5,5. El tiempo nos dirá de que modelo se trata 😉
Enhorabuena a todos los que hayáis tenido beneficios hoy, sobre todo a Janus y Bertok he alucinado leyendo vuestros post, admiro vuestros conocimientos y valentía para operar con futuros del SP a 50 pavos por punto, soy yo con los miniibex y cuando llevo 30puntos arriba o abajo me tiemblan las piernas.....
Espero algún día tener conocimientos y pasta para meterme en mini con el SP.
Una pregunta si me la permitís, cuando operáis con futuros supongo que las operaciones serán intradia y os metéis cuando veis la evolución de la tendencia o seguís las gráficas de días anteriores para decidir si entráis en corto o en largo? ( como veis son 3 preguntas en una) Gracias
:Aplauso::Aplauso:
Esto es lo que me gusta de este hilo (obviamente, que la gente gane dinero, pero no me refiero a eso).
De vez en cuando, los que saben reconocen que aunque se gane dinero con una operación, se ha hecho mal. Y viceversa, recuerdo una de banana diciendo que había palmado una pasta porque un disfuncional había circulado un rumor sin fundamento y el mercado se había puesto patas arriba. Había palmado un pastón, pero su operativa no era mala.
Hamijo,
1. - El día fue bien pero la semana la terminé con pérdidas, atenuadas por la última operación pero pérdidas al fin y al cabo.
2. - El chulibex y sus minis son una guano.
3. - Las tendencias las miro intradía o a lo sumo del día anterior. Son operaciones a muy corto plazo y las tendencias duran lo que duran, poco.
4. - El SP lleva muchas veces descargando en el entorno de 1220. En la sesión de ayer se escapó y parecía falso. Tras el tirón al alza, decidé ponerme corto al final de la segunda vela roja. Aunque haya ganado, no debí hacerlo porque reflexionando ahora en frío, la jugada que hice fue detectar el máximo y eso ha sido suerte (mal hecho por mi parte y seguro que estaba influenciado por las pérdidas semanales). El subconsciente me pudo.
Suerte.
Gracias por tu contestación Bertok. Te remito la mía.
1 -Siento lo de tus perdidas seguro que las recuperas la próxima semana.
2- Me gustaría saber tu opinión de porque los futuros del ibex son una guano, ya que la valora muchísimo. Para mi de momento dado mi reducido capital para invertir y dado que esto en fase de aprendizaje gacelil creo que pueden
servir.....
3- Yo intento averiguar la tendencia, ya con los pocos conocimientos que tengo y que estoy adquiriendo, creo que me la estoy jugando a cara o cruz. Siempre intento que sean operaciones intradia por lo que he leído aquí es de locos dejar posiciones abiertas y mas viendo la volatilidad del mercado.
4- Eso me pasa a mi también dejarme llevar por las perdidas, creo que ese punto lo tienen casi todos los que invierten en bolsa..." salvo banana, que parece ser que controla muy bien los sentimientos"
5- Cuando tenga mas conocimientos y algo mas de capital lo intentare con el SP
Suerte a ti también amigo.
En el caso concreto de anoche, fué que (en mi humilde opinión) se calentaron los índices antes de los últimos veinte minutos. Era de esperar que hubiera gato encerrado ... y de ahí que en cuanto lo dieron la vuelta, yo entré. Afortunadamente, me salí con un objetivo escrupuloso. Tal es así, que minutos después le dieron un tirón que me hubiera eliminado totalmente en cuanto a beneficios. Este trade tiene connotaciones exclusivamente intradía.
Después me quedé abierto en el SP (en corto) con una connotación diaria ante la resistencia de 1230. Es un nivel en el que ya se estrelló dos veces, y considero que ahí hay mucho papel. Me parece claro pero como estas armas las carga el diablo, stop al canto por si pasa algo. Si la posición evoluciona a mi favor, iré bajando el stop con la evolución de la cotización. Así, hasta donde nos lleve.
Tenga paciencia y encuentre un buen sistema y un equilibrio mental que le asegure que una posición no arrasará su cartera. Una vez conseguido eso, es indiferente que adopte posiciones muy fuertes o no.
El chulibex se caracteriza por la manipulación de unas pocas manos y la deslealtad hacia el Análisis Técnico.
En europa prefiero mil veces el mini del DAX (5€/pipo en CFDs). Con mucho cuidado porque los movimientos son intensos.
El chulibex se caracteriza por la manipulación de unas pocas manos y la deslealtad hacia el Análisis Técnico.
En europa prefiero mil veces el mini del DAX (5€/pipo en CFDs). Con mucho cuidado porque los movimientos son intensos.
Lamento sus pérdidas Sr. Bertok.😡:
Su comentario sobre el ibex me hace pensar que he disfrutado de la suerte del novato y además me mina la confianza recién adquirida.
Esta semana he comenzado en serio con mi operativa de papertrading con CFD sobre minicontratos del IBEX. Es decir, tengo un plan trazado en base a mis escasos conocimientos de AT y me ciño a él. He escogido la plataforma de igmarkets. Dentro de unos meses empezaré con dinero de verdad.
Los resultados no han podido ser mejores para ser la primera vez. He obtenido unos 2.2k de 11 operaciones, 10 de ellas exitosas. Todas intradía y de escasa duración. 5 - 10 minutos.
Y es que donde trazaba una línea, o un retroceso... allá que se iban las velas:8:, y ahora le leo a usted que el Ibex es infiel al AT:rolleye:
El DAX me da vértigo, cuando paso de uno a otro la sensación es de jugar en primera siendo un equipo de segunda. Aunque tampoco se exactmente porqué me da esas vibraciones.
Me hubiese gustado participar más en el hilo, que es apasionante, aunque sólo fuera para agradecer todas las aportaciones, pero es que no doy abasto.
Tengo como 10 páginas pendientes.
Ánimo, que seguro que se recupera.
Un saludo
Los resultados no han podido ser mejores para ser la primera vez. He obtenido unos 2.2k de 11 operaciones, 10 de ellas exitosas. Todas intradía y de escasa duración. 5 - 10 minutos.
Y yo en esta semana solo he podido recuperar 300 pavos de perdidas de la anterior y con al menos 6 operaciones!! "también es verdad que no tengo disponibilidad casi para operar".
Por cierto las perdidas han sido siempre en CFDs de valores y las ganancias siempre en el minifuturo del ibex.
Las pérdidas son pequeñas (<270€). No pasa nada, gajes del oficio.
Salvo esta semana que he operado con un manojo de minis, el resto del tiempo voy muy humilde ya que el año lo cubrí en Agosto. De aquí a final de año lo que manda es preservar las plusvalías.
En el chulibex prefiero operar con indicadores técnicos (MMs, MACD, .....). En mi experiencia se suelen comportan mejor que las figuras dibujadas en la pauta de precios.
A veces se empeña en seguir un media móvil o respetar los cruces del MACD y se gana un dineral.
Suerte
Y yo en esta semana solo he podido recuperar 300 pavos de perdidas de la anterior y con al menos 6 operaciones!! "también es verdad que no tengo disponibilidad casi para operar".
Por cierto las perdidas han sido siempre en CFDs de valores y las ganancias siempre en el minifuturo del ibex.
Tienes que estar registrado para ver este contenido
para banana, creo q no desentonaran en su office 😀
Tienes que estar registrado para ver este contenido
para banana, creo q no desentonaran en su office 😀
No sea Ud. nenaza... ayer mismo estuve cacharreando mi super wonder crystal station, y aquello era sólido, sólido como sus minusvalías: uno piensa que pueden quizás fallar, pero al final del día, siempre están ahí :XX::XX:
Ya, tienes razón, ya decía que si ajustas demasiado la distancia de seguimiento del stop móvil, te puedes quedar fuera. Pero una vez que me aseguro el cubrir gastos, la verdad es que prefiero quedarme fuera en una pequeña vuelta con el stop móvil (que se puede ir ampliando manteniendo beneficios para evitar esas pequeñas vueltas) que ir bajando el stop mental y verme con un 4 o un 5% en contra y deseando que vuelva al verde para salir sin pérdidas (y perderme la subida de otro 4 o 5% que suele venir a continuación 😀 )El problema del stop físico es que te pueden hacer wash and go y se te queda cara de simple. Si no es una caída muy vertical siempre te suele dar para salir en un pequeño rebote una vez superado el punto.
No sea Ud. nenaza... ayer mismo estuve cacharreando mi super wonder crystal station, y aquello era sólido, sólido como sus minusvalías: uno piensa que pueden quizás fallar, pero al final del día, siempre están ahí :XX::XX:
Gracias por tu contestación Bertok. Te remito la mía.
1 -Siento lo de tus perdidas seguro que las recuperas la próxima semana.
2- Me gustaría saber tu opinión de porque los futuros del ibex son una guano, ya que la valora muchísimo. Para mi de momento dado mi reducido capital para invertir y dado que esto en fase de aprendizaje gacelil creo que pueden
servir.....
....
Vaya, vaya ... qué guano de políticos tenemos en Europa. No se ponen de acuerdo en el cómo ... y hasta en el qué les costó un montón amén de algún tirón de orejas del FMI y USA.
Ahora ya han entrado por el aro de tener que recapitalizar los bancos (USA lo hizo al inicio de la crisis) pero no se ponen de acuerdo de dónde obtener el dinero. Sarkozy quiere hacerlo con el nuevo fondo de rescate (que no se olviden que el dinero hay que ponerlo de algún sitio, DEUDA colectiva), Merkel dice que un cigot!!! ya que antes lo tienen que obtener de los mercados vía ampliación de capital o vía entrada de los paises ... a lo que Sarkozy dice que otro cigot!!!! porque si endeuda más las cuentas públicas, le quitarán la tripe AAA. Otra vía de financiacion es la famosa tasa a transacciones financieras ... que no deja de ser un nuevo impuesto para obtener más y mejores recursos no catologados como deuda ... pero ahí los usanos les dicen que un cigot!!!!
Entonces miran a ver quién es el siguiente primo al que escaldar y otean en el horizonte al FMI pero la señora Lagarde dice que los recursos de la institución son escasos, es decir "y un cigot!!!". Entonces piensan en que sean los paises emergentes quienes sean generosos en sus aportaciones al FMI para que puedan utilizarlo como vehículo ... pero me dá que éstos también van a decir "y un cigot!!!!" por que siempre han sido receptores de dinero más que donantes ... y ya sabemos todos que pasar de gorrón a altruista, es un paso que solo se dá con una pistola en la nuca.
Venga, entonces la siguiente es decir que los bancos se coman los bonos con los que ayudaron a los estados previamente (primero yo te ayudo y después tú me ayudas comprándome un montón de deuda) y éstos dicen "y un cigot que yo me voy a comer una quita de la leche" ya que de momento el representante del lobby de la banca en las negociaciones dicen que "y un cigot!!!".
Me parece que van a terminar rompiendo la cesta porque todos están poniendo cigot y no caben tantos ... ya que el típico primo a la hora de pagar los convites (los ciudadanos) están masivamente movilizándose socialmente y los politicos están acorazonados ... no vaya a montarse una nueva toma de la Bastilla. Esto de los "indignados" y las redes sociales como trigger de movilizaciones ... no lo tenían en su bitácora.
El mercado al estar manipulado, puede hacer tirar por cualquier lado ... pero con este desorden van a resucitar al señor MV porque lo suyo sería que haya guano por todos los lados.
A quién le guste los artículos de John Mauldin, tiene una excepcional oportunidad de disfrutar de uno realmente brillante. En el de hoy mismo, habla sobre cómo se paga las deudas con hiperinflacción ... que puede ser por donde estos carbon lleven el tema finalmente. Expone casos en los que anteriormente generaron hiperinflacción con impresión de dinero ... pero en cantidades que dejan en ridículo el maquinillo del amigo Bennie.
Adjunto lo más interesante del artículo.
"Bankruptcies of governments have, on the whole, done less harm to mankind than their ability to raise loans."
- R.H. Tawney, Religion and the Rise of Capitalism, 1926
"By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.
- John Maynard Keynes, Economic Consequences of Peace
"Unemployed men took one or two rucksacks and went from peasant to peasant. They even took the train to favorable locations to get foodstuffs illegally which they sold afterwards in the town at three or fourfold the prices they had paid themselves. First the peasants were happy about the great amount of paper money which rained into their houses for their eggs and butter… However, when they came to town with their full briefcases to buy goods, they discovered to their chagrin that, whereas they had only asked for a fivefold price for their produce, the prices for scythe, hammer and cauldron, which they wanted to buy, had risen by a factor of 50."
- Stefan Zweig, The World of Yesterday, 1944.
The beginning of the end of the Weimar Republic was some 89 years ago this week. There is a stream of opinion that the US is headed for the same type of end. How else can it be, given that we owe some $75-80 trillion dollars in the coming years, over 5 times current GDP and growing every year? Remember the good old days of about 5-6 years ago (if memory serves me correctly) when it was only $50 trillion? With a nod to Bernanke's helicopter speech, where he detailed how the Fed could prevent deflation, I ask the opposite question, "Can 'it' (hyperinflation) really happen here?" I write this on a plane flying to NYC, with a tighter deadline than normal, so let's see how far we can get. More on where I'm heading at the end of the letter.
But first, let me quickly call to your attention a speaking engagement that I'm doing November 9 in Atlanta. It is for Hedge Funds Care, and it's a wonderful event for a children's charity. If you can make it, I hope to see you there. You can learn more and register atTienes que estar registrado para ver este contenido.
Can "It" Happen Here?
I was inspired for this week's letter by a piece by Art Cashin (whom I will get to have dinner with Monday). His daily letter always begins with an anecdote from history. Yesterday it was about Weimar, told in his own inimitable style. So without any edits, class will commence, with Professor Cashin at the chalk board.
An Encore Presentation
By Art Cashin
Originally, on this day (-2) in 1922, the German Central Bank and the German Treasury took an inevitable step in a process which had begun with their previous effort to "jump start" a stagnant economy. Many months earlier they had decided that what was needed was easier money. Their initial efforts brought little response. So, using the governmental "more is better" theory they simply created more and more money.
But economic stagnation continued and so did the money growth. They kept making money more available. No reaction. Then, suddenly prices began to explode unbelievably (but, perversely, not business activity).
So, on this day government officials decided to bring figures in line with market realities. They devalued the mark. The new value would be 2 billion marks to a dollar. At the start of World War I the exchange rate had been a mere 4.2 marks to the dollar. In simple terms you needed 4.2 marks in order to get one dollar. Now it was 2 billion marks to get one dollar. And thirteen months from this date (late November 1923) you would need 4.2 trillion marks to get one dollar. In ten years the amount of money had increased a trillion fold.
Numbers like billions and trillions tend to numb the mind. They are too large to grasp in any "real" sense. Thirty years ago an older member of the NYSE (there were some then) gave me a graphic and memorable (at least for me) example. "Young man," he said, "would you like a million dollars?" "I sure would, sir!" I replied anxiously. "Then just put aside $500 every week for the next 40 years." I have never forgotten that a million dollars is enough to pay you $500 per week for 40 years (and that's without benefit of interest). To get a billion dollars you would have to set aside $500,000 dollars per week for 40 years. And a…..trillion that would require $500 million every week for 40 years. Even with these examples, the enormity is difficult to grasp.
Let's take a different tack. To understand the incomprehensible scope of the German inflation maybe it's best to start with something basic….like a loaf of bread. (To keep things simple we'll substitute dollars and cents in place of marks and pfennigs. You'll get the picture.) In the middle of 1914, just before the war, a one pound loaf of bread cost 13 cents. Two years later it was 19 cents. Two years more and it sold for 22 cents. By 1919 it was 26 cents. [Double in value, or a "mere" 12% compound inflation –JM.] Now the fun begins.
In 1920, a loaf of bread soared to $1.20, and then in 1921 it hit $1.35. By the middle of 1922 it was $3.50. At the start of 1923 it rocketed to $700 a loaf. Five months later a loaf went for $1200. By September it was $2 million. A month later it was $670 million (wide spread rioting broke out). The next month it hit $3 billion. By mid month it was $100 billion. Then it all collapsed [as if a roughly 8 billion times rise in cost wasn't already collapse! Hint of irony here. – JM]
Let's go back to "marks". In 1913, the total currency of Germany was a grand total of 6 billion marks. In November of 1923 that loaf of bread we just talked about cost 428 billion marks. A kilo of fresh butter cost 6000 billion marks (as you will note that kilo of butter cost 1000 times more than the entire money supply of the nation just 10 years earlier).
How Could This All Happen?
In 1913 Germany had a solid, prosperous, advanced culture and population. Like much of Europe it was a monarchy (under the Kaiser). Then, trinc the assassination of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo in 1914, the world moved toward war. Each side was convinced the other would not dare go to war. So, in a global game of chicken they stumbled into the Great War.
[Side note: So convinced were the bond markets that war was not possible that bonds were still selling at normal prices. War was simply inconceivable. Bad call. - JM]
The German General Staff thought the war would be short and sweet and that they could finance the costs with the post war reparations that they, as victors, would exact. The war was long. The flower of their manhood was killed or injured. They lost and, thus, it was they who had to pay reparations rather than receive them.
Things did not go badly instantly. Yes, the deficit soared but much of it was borne by foreign and domestic bond buyers. As had been noted by scholars….."The foreign and domestic public willingly purchased new debt issues when it believed that the government could run future surpluses to offset contemporaneous deficits." In layman's English that means foreign bond buyers said – "Hey this is a great nation and this is probably just a estimulante ilegal bump in the economy." (Can you imagine such a thing happening again?)
When things began to disintegrate, no one dared to take away the punchbowl. They antiestéticared shutting off the monetary heroin would lead to riots, civil war, and, worst of all communism. So, realizing that what they were doing was destructive, they kept doing it out of antiestéticar that stopping would be even more destructive.
Currencies, Culture and Chaos
If it is difficult to grasp the enormity of the numbers in this tale of hyper-inflation, it is far more difficult to grasp how it destroyed a culture, a nation and, almost, the world.
People's savings were suddenly worthless. Pensions were meaningless. If you had a 400 mark monthly pension, you went from comfortable to penniless in a matter of months. People demanded to be paid daily so they would not have their wages devalued by a few days passing. Ultimately, they demanded their pay twice daily just to cover changes in trolley fare. People heated their homes by burning money instead of coal. (It was more plentiful and cheaper to get.)
The middle class was destroyed. It was an age of renters, not of home ownership, so thousands became homeless.
But the cultural collapse may have had other more pernicious effects.
Some sociologists note that it was still an era of arranged marriages. Families scrimped and saved for years to build a dowry so that their daughter might marry well. Suddenly, the dowry was worthless – wiped out. And with it was gone all hope of marriage. Girls who had stayed prim and proper awaiting some future Prince Charming now had no hope at all. Social sarracena began to collapse. The roar of the roaring twenties began to rumble.
All hope and belief in systems, governmental or otherwise, collapsed. With its culture and its economy disintegrating, Germany saw a guy named Hitler begin a ten year effort to come to power by trading on the chaos and street rioting. And then came World War II.
That soul-wrenching and disastrous experience with inflation is seared into the German psyche. It is why the populace is reluctant to endorse the bailout. It is also why all the German proposals have each country taking care of its own banks. (It gives them more control.) The French plans tend to socialize the bailout. There's more disagreement in these plans than the headlines would indicate.
To celebrate have a Jagermeister or two at the Pre Fuhrer Lounge and try to explain that for over half a century America's trauma has been depression-era unemployment while Germany's trauma has been runaway inflation. But drink fast, prices change radically after happy hour.
What Causes Hyperinflation?
We spent a whole chapter writing about inflation and hyperinflation in Endgame, which I think highlights the topic rather well (Tienes que estar registrado para ver este contenido). Let me quote a few paragraphs.
"We know that the world is drowning in too much debt, and it is unlikely that households and governments everywhere will be able to pay down that debt. Doing so in some cases is impossible, and in other cases it will condemn people to many hard years of labor in order to be debt-free. Inflation, by comparison, appears to be the easy way out for many policy makers.
"Companies and households typically deal with excessive debt by defaulting; countries overwhelmingly usually deal with excessive debt by inflating it away. While debt is fixed, prices and wages can go up, making the total debt burden smaller. People can't increase prices and wages through inflation, but governments can create inflation and they've been pretty good at it over the years. Inflation, debt monetization and currency debasement are not new. They have been used for the past few thousand years as means to get rid of debt. In fact, they work pretty well.
"The average person thinks that inflation comes from 'money printing.' There is some truth to this, and indeed the most vivid images of hyperinflation are of printed German Reichmarks being burnt for heat in the 1920s or Hungarian Pengos being swept up in the streets in 1945.
"You don't even have to go that far back to see hyperinflation and how brilliantly it works at eliminating debt. Let's look at the example of Brazil, which is one of the world's most recent examples of hyperinflation. This peine within our lifetimes. In the late 1980s and 1990s it very successfully got rid of most of its debt.
"Today Brazil has very little debt as it has all been inflated away. Its economy is booming, people trust the central bank and the country is a success story. Much like the United States had high inflation in the 1970s and then got a diligent central banker like Paul Volcker, in Brazil a new government came in, beat inflation, produced strong real GDP growth and set the stage for one of the greatest economic success stories of the past two decades. Indeed the same could be said of other countries like Turkey that had hyperinflation, devaluation, and then found monetary and fiscal rectitude.
"In 1993 Brazilian inflation was roughly 2,000%. Only four years later, in 1997 it was 7%. Almost as if by magic, the debt disappeared. Imagine if the US increased its money supply which is currently $900 billion by a factor of 10,000 times as Brazil's did between 1991 and 1996. We would have 9 quadrillion USD on the Fed's balance sheet. That is a lot of zeros. It would also miccionan that our current debt of thirteen trillion would be chump change. A critic of this strategy for getting rid of our debt could point out that no one would lend to us again if we did that. Hardly. Investors, sadly, have very short memories. Markets always forgive default and inflation. Just look at Brazil, Bolivia, and Russia today. Foreigners are delighted to invest in these countries.
"The endgame is not complicated under inflation/hyperinflation. Deflation is not inevitable. Money printing and monetization of government debt works when real growth fails. It has worked in countless emerging market economies (Zimbabwe, Ukraine, Tajikistan, Taiwan, Brazil, etc.). We could even use it in the US to get rid of all our debts. It would take a few years, and then we could get a new central banker like Volker to kill inflation. We could then be a real success story like Brazil.
"Honestly, recommending hyperinflation is tongue in cheek. But now even serious economists are recommending inflation as a solution. Given the powerful deflationary forces in the world, inflation will stay low in the near term. This gives some comfort to mainstream economists who think we can create inflation to solve the debt problem in the short run. The International Monetary Fund's top economist, Olivier Blanchard, has argued that central banks should target a higher inflation rate than they do at present in order to avoid the possibility of deflation. Economists like Paul Krugman, a Nobel Prize winner, and Olivier Blanchard argue that central banks should raise their inflation targets to as high as 4%. Paul McCulley argues that central banks should be 'responsibly irresponsible.'
"Peter Bernholz wrote the bible on inflation and hyperinflation, called Monetary Regimes and Inflation: History, Economic and Political Relationships. He writes about 29 periods of hyperinflation. What causes such a spectacular increase in prices? Bernholz has explained the process very elegantly.
"Bernholz argues that governments have a bias towards inflation. The evidence doesn't disagree with him. The only thing that limits a government's desire for inflation is an independent central bank. After looking at inflation across all countries and analyzing all hyperinflationary episodes, the lessons are the trinc:
1. Metallic standards like gold or silver standard show no, or a much smaller, inflationary tendency than discretionary paper money standards
2. Paper money standards with central banks independent of political authorities are less inflation-based than those with dependent central banks.
3. Currencies based on discretionary paper standards and bound by a regime of a fixed exchange rate to currencies, which either enjoy a metallic standard or, with a discretionary paper money standard, an independent central bank, show also a smaller tendency towards inflation, whether their central banks are independent or not.
"Bernholz examined twelve of the twenty-nine hyperinflationary episodes where significant data existed. Every hyperinflation looked the same. 'Hyperinflations are always caused by public budget deficits which are largely financed by money creation.' But even more interestingly, Bernholz identified the level at which hyperinflations can start. He concluded that 'the figures demonstrate clearly that deficits amounting to 40 percent or more of expenditures cannot be maintained. They lead to high inflation and hyperinflations….' Interestingly, even lower levels of government deficits can cause inflation. For example, 20% deficits were behind all but four cases of hyperinflation.
"Stay with us here, because this is an important point. Most analysts quote government deficits as a percentage of GDP. They'll say, 'The US has a government deficit of 10% of GDP.' While this measure makes some sense, it doesn't tell you how big the deficit is relative to expenditures. The deficit may be 10% the size of the US economy, but currently the US deficit is over 30% of all government spending. That is a big difference."
But What About the $70 trillion in Off-Balance-Sheet Debt?
I am asked that question all the time. My answer is that it illustrates the power of "It Won't Happen." As in "if it can't happen it won't happen." That number will never be paid, either in terms of current buying power or actual numbers or actual benefits. It can't be. The money is not and will not be there.
The far more interesting question is what will happen when we reach the point of "won't happen." Will that be something we recognize before it happens and act proactively to avoid a cataclysmic event? Will we wait until the bond market jerks our chain about the fiscal crisis, which is massively stagflationary? Yes, the Fed can print to some degree, but not dealing with the crisis will ultimately force a huge restructuring of spending and taxes which, if not caught early enough, will propel us into a certain Second Great Depression. Which is why I think we will deal with it proactively in 2013, because to not do so would be trinc of the worst sort. The consequences are unimaginable for the US and for the world. Think Greece, and then go downhill. All over the world.
I think more and more political leaders are beginning to understand that point. They are not happy about it. But I remain hopeful that in 2013 we can actually deal with the deficit and the debt in an orderly manner. If we do not, God help us all.
recibio mi privado, sobre libros de mates
😛ienso:
¿puedes poner el enlace? no lo veo
muy agradecido
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Está muy bien porque regularmente (al menos semanalmente) te envían un buen prospect a tu cuenta de correo.
El Ibex se puede manipular más fácilmente que otros índices, y como dice Bertok, las manos que lo llevan elaboran estrategias como 'stop hunting' reventando zonas de soportes y resistencias claras, lo que hace complicado el tema de colocar órdenes en esas zonas. Eso tiene también puede tener sus beneficios, ya que sabiendo que se acumulan órdenes en esas zonas puedes beneficiarte de un posible 'stop hunting'.., dejando que te arrastren esas 'saltadas de stop'...