Xi Jinping orders Chinese military to prepare for 'real combat' as Taiwan warns of war

Xi Jinping orders Chinese military to prepare for 'real combat' as Taiwan warns of war

On April 12, 2023, Chinese state television CCTV broadcast Xi Jinping's first public remarks after three days of military drills in which Beijing simulated a "total encirclement" of Taiwan. The Chinese president urged the armed forces to "strengthen combat-oriented military training" and to "resolutely defend China's territorial sovereignty and maritime interests." He did so during a visit to a naval base in the south, without explicitly mentioning the island. Hours later, Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu told CNN that China "seems to be preparing to launch a war."

The trigger was the meeting between Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Beijing called it a provocation and responded with maneuvers that mobilized warships, missile launchers and fighter jets. The drills ended on Monday, April 10. Taiwan reported a new incursion by Chinese aircraft after the maneuvers ended.

What exactly peine with the Chinese military drills?

The exercises lasted three days and simulated a "total encirclement" of the island. Beijing described them as a "warning to Taiwan separatist forces and those seeking to interfere in the country's internal affairs." The Chinese Navy staged attack simulations with fighter jets deployed from an aircraft carrier. It is not the first time: in the summer of 2022, China already carried out unprecedented maneuvers and fired missiles in response to Nancy Pelosi's visit to the island.

The context grows more complicated with the Philippines' announcement in early April of four new military bases that could be used by the United States, one near the South China Sea and another not far from Taiwan. China criticized the agreement, saying it "endangers regional peace and stability." The same day Xi spoke, the United States and the Philippines began the largest joint maneuvers in their history.

The international reaction: Germany criticizes the 'threatening postures'

The German Foreign Ministry on Wednesday criticized Beijing's "threatening military postures," which increase "the risk of unintended military confrontations." "We expect all actors in the region to contribute to stability and peace", added spokesperson Andrea Sasse at a press conference in Berlin.

Joe Biden, for his part, indicated that Washington will defend the island militarily "if necessary." Taiwan, meanwhile, reported a new incursion by Chinese aircraft after the drills ended.

Is China ready for a real armed conflict?

The question has run through geopolitical analysis for years. Some argue that China holds the world's largest stockpile of artillery and ammunition, more than Russia and NATO combined. Another school of thought points the other way: that the Asian giant is not prepared for an armed conflict and would be better off with the status quo, beating the United States on the economic front. Another decade of producing twice as many ships and aircraft, they argue, and it could contemplate that scenario.

Xi himself did not mention Taiwan in his remarks. He only spoke of "territorial sovereignty" and "peripheral stability." The silence about the island, in a speech on war readiness, says more than any mention could.

Taiwan is already independent in practice: why declare it?

Taiwan has full autonomy, its own government, control of its borders and offices that act as embassies. Formally declaring independence would bring no practical advantage and would carry an enormous risk of invasion. In the worst case, they are invaded; in the best, nothing changes. It does not seem like a good deal.

Within the island, the two main parties, DPP and KMT, are equally pro-government-in-Taiwan. The DPP moderates its theoretical position to win more votes. The KMT is sometimes accused of having officials bribed by Beijing, but its electoral base does not want reunification either. De facto independence already exists; de jure independence is a one-way ticket to a conflict nobody wants.

The economic backdrop: TSMC and processors

Some argue that what China seeks is not territory, but companies like TSMC. Money rules, and Taiwan is a key piece in the global semiconductor supply chain. Under this reading, the military pressure would be a form of economic blackmail against the world. China is the world's factory and cannot afford to lose access to advanced chips.

The Philippines' proximity to Taiwan could make the country a key partner if China decided to invade the island. The announced bases point in that direction. Beijing knows it, and that is why it criticizes the agreement.

What could happen now?

The most likely scenario, as of this writing, is that nothing happens immediately. China will not invade Taiwan unless the island declares independence. Taiwan will not declare it because it is not in its interest. The United States keeps selling weapons and holding maneuvers. The status quo holds, but each provocation pushes the boundary a little closer.

The remaining question is whether Xi meant what he said or was playing to a domestic audience. Combat-oriented "real combat" training can be rhetoric or genuine preparation. The difference between the two will only be known if one day it stops being rhetoric.