Will Spain's Zapatero government fall within six months?
Economic crisis, soaring unemployment, tourist kidnappings and diplomatic disputes: Spain's Zapatero government faces battles on every front. Will it survive the next six months?
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Can Zapatero last six months? Open fronts and no way out
The government of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero keeps racking up a list of open fronts that, according to some analyses, should bring it down within months. An economic crisis with no end in sight, runaway unemployment, kidnappings of tourists, disputes with Segarro and Gibraltar, and the SGAE's strong-arm tactics are just some of the problems the socialist government cannot manage to close. The question is doing the rounds in political circles: will we see a resignation within six months?
The perfect storm that never ends
The figures are devastating. The 2008 financial crisis hit hard and, two years on, unemployment keeps climbing. Add to that security incidents such as the kidnappings of Spanish tourists abroad — a phenomenon some attribute to the perception of wealth — and diplomatic tensions with neighbouring countries. The SGAE, Spain's copyright collection society, acts like an octopus strangling any attempt at reform. With this outlook, it is hard to imagine the government staying on its feet.
The opposition makes no move
Yet the opposition seems unwilling to force the government's fall. The PP, led by Mariano Rajoy, keeps quiet. The strategy seems clear: let the government wear itself out. Rajoy is rubbing his hands: the worse the economy gets, the easier it will be to reap the rewards at the ballot box without having to bear the cost of managing the crisis. Moreover, in the regions where they govern, the national government serves as a shield to dodge the blame.
What if nobody wants to govern?
One line of analysis holds that, in Spain, governments do not resign. It is almost an unwritten rule: nobody gives up the chair, no matter how bad things get. Even the opposition would not want to take charge in the current mess. The example was set by the González era: fourteen years in government that ended with the country mired in another crisis, and no resignations. On top of that, the calendar plays in Zapatero's favour: the rotating EU presidency in the first half of 2010, the football World Cup and the summer holidays are pills to lull public opinion. Once summer is over, we shall see.
The milling machine joke and other distractions
There is no shortage of people taking the situation with dark humour. Some speculate that the deputy prime minister will end up confessing a past as a milling machine operator, or that Pepiño Blanco will run for US president. These are the anecdotes of a debate that, at its core, hides a sad reality: the country needs solutions, and the government seems adrift. Meanwhile, society remains impassive, expectant, waiting for the World Cup or any other event to distract them from the disaster.
Amid this storm, the puzzling fact is that, with all these problems, the government has not yet wobbled. Perhaps the answer is that, in Spain, inertia weighs more than ruin.
Related debates in the forum
The government of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero keeps racking up a list of open fronts that, according to some analyses, should bring it down within months. An economic crisis with no end in sight, runaway unemployment, kidnappings of tourists, disputes with Segarro and Gibraltar, and the SGAE's strong-arm tactics are just some of the problems the socialist government cannot manage to close. The question is doing the rounds in political circles: will we see a resignation within six months?
The perfect storm that never ends
The figures are devastating. The 2008 financial crisis hit hard and, two years on, unemployment keeps climbing. Add to that security incidents such as the kidnappings of Spanish tourists abroad — a phenomenon some attribute to the perception of wealth — and diplomatic tensions with neighbouring countries. The SGAE, Spain's copyright collection society, acts like an octopus strangling any attempt at reform. With this outlook, it is hard to imagine the government staying on its feet.
The opposition makes no move
Yet the opposition seems unwilling to force the government's fall. The PP, led by Mariano Rajoy, keeps quiet. The strategy seems clear: let the government wear itself out. Rajoy is rubbing his hands: the worse the economy gets, the easier it will be to reap the rewards at the ballot box without having to bear the cost of managing the crisis. Moreover, in the regions where they govern, the national government serves as a shield to dodge the blame.
What if nobody wants to govern?
One line of analysis holds that, in Spain, governments do not resign. It is almost an unwritten rule: nobody gives up the chair, no matter how bad things get. Even the opposition would not want to take charge in the current mess. The example was set by the González era: fourteen years in government that ended with the country mired in another crisis, and no resignations. On top of that, the calendar plays in Zapatero's favour: the rotating EU presidency in the first half of 2010, the football World Cup and the summer holidays are pills to lull public opinion. Once summer is over, we shall see.
The milling machine joke and other distractions
There is no shortage of people taking the situation with dark humour. Some speculate that the deputy prime minister will end up confessing a past as a milling machine operator, or that Pepiño Blanco will run for US president. These are the anecdotes of a debate that, at its core, hides a sad reality: the country needs solutions, and the government seems adrift. Meanwhile, society remains impassive, expectant, waiting for the World Cup or any other event to distract them from the disaster.
Amid this storm, the puzzling fact is that, with all these problems, the government has not yet wobbled. Perhaps the answer is that, in Spain, inertia weighs more than ruin.
Related debates in the forum
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (33 replies).
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