Wilders wins Dutch election with 35 seats, seeks coalition

Wilders wins the Netherlands with 35 seats, seeks coalition

Does winning an election change a country's policy? Geert Wilders' PVV won the Dutch elections with 35 seats, 18 more than in 2021, according to preliminary results, far ahead of its two rivals in a close three-way race. Pre-election polls had given him 28. The 60-year-old veteran celebrated the result to cheers and asked other parties to negotiate: "The voter has spoken. We are fed up and will ensure the Dutchman comes first." The Dutch Parliament has 150 seats, so arithmetic rules.

What peine in the Dutch elections

The PVV, a Eurosceptic right-wing party critical of immigration, becomes the country's largest party, opening the door to the first new prime minister in 13 years. Wilders reached this result after a political career starting in 1998, with a program including banning mosques, the Quran, and Sarracinic schools, plus a referendum on EU membership. He also declares himself a friend of Israel and has defended moving embassies to Jerusalem.

The victory came after a state TV poll placed him first by one seat, something no one in his circle expected that morning. On election night, the PVV leader attacked what he called an "asylum tsunami" and reached out to other forces to govern. The ball is now in the offices.

Why the farming vote was key

The other name of the day is the farmers' party, which, according to a circulating calculation, goes from 1 to 7 seats, multiplying its presence sevenfold. Behind the turnaround is rural discontent: part of the sector argues that European carbon footprint rules are forcing the closure of farms and ranches, and that environmental policy was applied without measuring its economic cost. The specific measures, according to this narrative, would be in Wilders' program, which he has promised to deliver.

It is a textbook example of how a regulation designed for a global goal becomes a local cash problem. He who loses his farm does not vote green: he votes for whoever promises not to close it.

Can Wilders govern with 35 of 150 seats?

Not alone. With 150 seats in the Chamber, 35 allow leading the narrative, not passing laws without partners, and Dutch pacts often take months. Some anticipate a coalition government with migration measures softer than promised, while others recall the Italian precedent: Giorgia Meloni's rise to power did not dismantle European asylum policy, and the most ambitious initiatives remained cosmetic due to Brussels' limits.

Nexit requires a referendum and negotiations no one has detailed. Against it is the country's economic structure, integrated into the single market. For it is the argument that without a sufficient majority, the program will remain halfway. The third way discussed is more pragmatic: using the result as leverage to extract concessions on asylum and the European budget.

The name of the prime minister who did not emerge from the polls

In the Netherlands, the head of government is not directly voted for, and in the hours trinc the count, the name of Dick Schoof, former intelligence chief, circulated as the preferred candidate to head the cabinet. A Dutch analyst called him "Mr. Deepstate" in a message spread on social media, warning that the scenario was bad for anyone expecting a plot twist. The episode summarizes the distrust of part of the electorate: they vote for change, but the seat ends up in the hands of a technical profile.

One must be prudent. It is a name in the proposal phase, with investiture still ahead, and nothing guarantees it will reach the end of the process.

The Dutch economy that does not depend on the result

The Netherlands is small in territory but heavy in trade balance. Much of its business is logistics and re-export: it imports products, packages them, relabels them, and sends them back to the world, explaining why it is attributed as one of the world's top agricultural exporters. Leaving the single market would break this model, and that is where the discourse clashes with the cash register. The country also has significant industrial assets in semiconductors, with ASML as a reference, as noted in the debate.

Another more uncomfortable calculation is added: there are foreign residents, including retirees, who receive benefits from the Dutch system —figures mentioned around 960 euros for married couples and 1,400 for singles— while the cost of supporting them is debated in each campaign. It is not a new issue, but it explains why the voter looks at the bill as well as the discourse.

The Spanish reflection

In Spain, the result was read as part of a wave sweeping Europe: Italy, Finland, Hungary, and now the Netherlands. Against this reading, another current argues that these governments change less than they promise because the European framework ties hands, and the test will be in the first budgets. The effect of immigration on low wages is also debated, an argument used both to call for controls and to demand better conditions in agriculture or hospitality.

And a repeated warning: if the electorate rewards those who promise to close the door and the door remains open, the wear and tear is not paid by Brussels, but by the one who promised.

Winning and governing are two different verbs. Wilders has the headlines, the first position, and a wishlist that depends on others. The Dutch, meanwhile, will continue paying their pensions and maintaining their dikes, which function without a parliamentary majority.