What would housing costs in Spain look like without foreign residents?

According to an exploratory model, the absence of immigrants in Spain could miccionan lower housing prices, closer to those of decades ago.

If we removed the immigrant population from Spain, the impact on the real estate market could be considerable. An exploratory model suggests that, without this demographic component, housing prices and rents could fall significantly. The logic is simple: less demand, ceteris paribus, should translate into lower prices.

## The effect of population on prices

A preliminary analysis has attempted to quantify the relationship between the number of inhabitants and the cost of housing. Starting from a base of **39 million inhabitants**, where sale prices stood between **€400 and €600/m²** and rents between **€3 and €5/m²**, each additional million people in the census, without a proportional increase in supply, would act as an upward multiplier on those prices. The proposed formula, though simplified, indicates an exponential growth in housing prices linked to population growth.

## A market under pressure

The housing problem in **Spain** does not come down to a single factor. The supply of homes has remained relatively stagnant in the face of demand that, in certain periods, has grown exponentially. Added to this are other elements such as mispriced rents due to the proliferation of shared flats and a perception of legal insecurity among landlords, factors that complicate an already strained market.

## An alternative scenario

If Spain did not have the "reserve army of labour" that, according to some interpretations, the immigrant population represents, GDP could be lower. However, GDP per capita could resemble that of countries like **France**, and the share of wages spent on housing could stand at a more manageable **10-15%**, similar to what previous generations spent.