War fears surge in global markets

War antiestéticars surge in global markets

Geopolitical tension has reached levels unseen since the missile crisis. A conversation between investors and analysts captures the mood of those no longer asking "if" conflict will occur, but "where to flee." The debate, which started 274 days ago, has intensified as military deployments continue on Europe's eastern flank.

The cost of uncertainty

When the drums of war beat, money seeks refuge. In recent weeks, gold has approached historic highs, while German Bund yields have fallen. Risk assets—European equities, peripheral bonds—are facing massive sell-offs. Observers note that "the terraces are full," a metaphor for apparent calm contrasting with silent panic in portfolios.

It is argued that even without nuclear war, a conventional conflict would suffice to reconfigure supply chains: Russian gas, Ukrainian wheat, Taiwanese semiconductors. The Spanish economy, dependent on energy imports, would be among the hardest hit.

Prepared for the worst?

Some analysis suggests the outcome is inevitable: too many signals, too many actors with conflicting interests. Others point out that noise is part of the deterrence game and that recent history shows total wars are avoided at the last minute. However, recurring references to Mussolini—"ended up hanging upside down for leading his people into a war nobody wanted"—suggest that the memory of the political consequences of a lost conflict weighs on leaders.

The unsettling data: while some calculate returns on defense stocks, others remind us that in case of war, pensions and rents vanish. The economy is not an abstract apocalypse; it is bills someone will stop paying.