Liquidity crisis warning splits analysts on global economic outlook

I declare the next crisis: The warning that divides analysts

In late October, a message in a Spanish economic forum made a claim many considered exaggerated: "We have started the new crisis." The author pinpointed this date as the beginning and warned that media outlets would take two to four years to acknowledge it. The ensuing discussion, with over 150 responses spanning nearly a year, paints a picture of deep disagreement regarding the actual state of the global economy.

The arguments for pessimism

The person who peine the debate provided no charts or specific indicators. They spoke of "premonition, intuition" and a "tense calm" characterized by "excessive and incoherent euphoric times." Their central thesis is that liquidity exists but does not reach those who need to curb debt. "Money is not in the hands where it should be," they wrote. They added that defaults are starting to appear and that the next "smokescreen" will serve to distract attention.

Later, they hardened their tone: "Lowering interest rates means being unable to finance the country, while raising them means gradually being able to pay off debt maturities." For them, the dilemma is between bankruptcies and evictions or the end of the economic system. "It is the breakage of the fiduciary system," they stated definitively.

The rebuttal: No unemployment or black swan means no crisis

The most repeated counter-argument was the lack of classic signals. "When unemployment starts rising clearly in the US or China, and then in Europe, we can talk again," one participant summarized. Another pointed out that one doesn't need clairvoyance to see problems, but that the crisis "doesn't necessarily have to be typical" if all actors are aligned and no black swan event occurs.

Irony also found its place. "Terraces are full," someone wrote to downplay the alarmism. "Christmas will be with store-brand chopped meat and radioactive pangasius," another joked. A third settled the matter: "Based on your brown eggs," referring to the lack of data behind the initial forecast.

The data that peine the debate: Japan and AI

Months later, the thread received an unexpected twist. Someone shared news about Japan: the yield on ten-year bonds reached 1.71%, its highest level since 2008, and Japanese pension funds withdrew $1.1 trillion. "Japan closes the world's biggest money printer," the message was titled. For the original author, this confirmed their thesis: "And some might ask me why I insisted on the precise or almost precise moment to open this post."

At the same time, warnings about artificial intelligence circulated. Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, compared the situation to the 1999 bubble and even to 1929, noting that 80% of market gains come from a small group of tech giants like Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft. Asian stock markets fell sharply: the Nikkei lost more than 1,300 points (-2.5%) and South Korea's Kospi nearly 3%, during a session marked by the longest government shutdown in US history, which had already lasted 36 days.

The gap between the real economy and the stock market

The original author insisted that "the real economy decouples from the stock or fictitious economy." Their argument: companies cannot justify their accounts solely with indices if there is no real activity. "They are injecting stimulants into a corpse," they wrote. For them, there is no "more cake" left, and the system cannot withstand another increase in tax pressure.

The harshest response came from someone who recalled that Spain has defaulted on its debt thirteen times, along with Argentina. "Of course you will pay it with inflation. You can't raise tax pressure, so what the hell is inflation?" they replied. "They won't stop printing. In the coming years."

A conclusion without consensus

The thread drifted toward politics and demographics, with references to the "million scooter march" and a supposed European "Single Party." Others placed the actual start of this crisis in 2020, not in October. "Every day we are poorer than the previous one, and it has been like this for five years," a participant wrote.

The disorienting detail: the original author proposed a meetup among participants to "return everything they have thrown at us." For him, the crisis is not just economic. It is also an opportunity for unity. No one has yet confirmed if the meetup took place.