Vox turns 10: The political balance of its voters

Vox marks a decade without touching state power

Founded in 2013, Santiago Abascal’s party celebrated its first major result in the 2018 Andalusian regional elections, securing between 11 and 12 seats. Since then, it has continued to grow in votes, but a segment of its electorate is now asking what has actually changed in Spain over these ten years. The answer circulating among critics is uncomfortable: absolutely nothing.

The repeated diagnosis is not flattering. Immigration continues to rise, both legal and irregular. Catalan and Basque separatism retains its leverage over the state. Autonomous communities are costing more, and their administrative structures keep expanding. And in Brussels, there is a sense that Spain signs whatever is put in front of it. Given this landscape, the question is legitimate: what has Vox achieved?

The argument of the Overton window

Supporters of the party argue that the balance cannot be measured solely by seats. Vox has managed to bring an anti-pogre discourse into Congress that was previously unthinkable. Some go further, claiming this has halted the shift of the Overton window to the left and even reversed the trend. This is significant, they argue, in a country where media consensus punished any dissent.

Against this weighs a fact critics repeat: Vox has never governed alone. It has acted as a crutch for the PP in several regions, but without the ability to impose its program. In Congress, its votes have served to block or support, depending on the moment. The lingering question is whether this constitutes governing or simply occupying a seat.

The accusation of being 'the PSOE's whore'

One of the harshest currents within the party itself accuses Vox of becoming an instrument of the system. The thesis is that the 1978 regime preferred to place a former People's Party member like Abascal and twenty other elites in Congress rather than allow a radical with a single seat and incendiary discourse. In other words, Vox has functioned as a pressure valve to neutralize real discontent.

This reading connects with another recurring complaint: that Vox defends the same things as the PP on fundamental issues: the Constitution, monarchy, autonomous communities, NATO, EU membership, and South American immigration. In this framework, the difference between the two parties is stylistic, not substantive. The episode of the favorable vote for the release of ETA prisoners is cited as proof that, ultimately, everyone rows in the same direction.

The disenchantment of those who expected something else

There is a sector that voted for Vox expecting real change and now feels cheated. Their argument is that the party served to channel popular discontent and allow the system another decade of impunity. The illusion, they say, is synonymous with lost illusion. They point out that meanwhile, those leading the party have improved their personal situation: the leader owns a house in Arturo Soria valued at two million euros.

In response, others argue that the party has not governed Spain and that asking it for government results is a trap. That its function has been different: to break taboos, bring banned discourses into Congress, and force the PP to lower its pants in more than one negotiation. This cultural battle, they claim, has already been worth it.

The problem of representation and strategic voting

Underlying the debate is a broader question: is it useful to vote for a party that cannot govern? Some respond that in this country, anything other than the PP is a waste of time, money, and history. Others counter that this reasoning is what has maintained bipartisanship for decades and that, if no one votes for alternatives, they will never exist.

The comparison with radical Basque nationalism appears in the conversation. It is recalled that many HB voters thought the same: that it was worth seeing the disturbed faces of Meseta fascists when they went to Madrid with a few seats. If the mentality is ultimately the same, the conclusion is that they are all cut from the same cloth.

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Ten years later, Vox still has not touched state power. Its voters remain hopeful, or deluded, depending on who you ask. And Spain, with rising immigration, separatism that blackmails, and expanding communities, remains the same or worse. The disconcerting fact: the party that promised to break the system has ended up, for many of its voters, as just another piece of it.