Forecast of mass migrant expulsion divides economic analysis in Spain
A forecast is spreading through analyses: migration pressure will force a mass expulsion. The debate over who pays pensions and what will happen to bonds.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Forecast of mass expulsion: reality or mirage?
A forecast runs through economic and demographic analyses: accumulated migration pressure will end up forcing a mass expulsion of irregular migrants, a sort of "neo-expulsion" that some compare to the expulsion of Sephardic Jews in 1492. The thesis starts from a concrete fact: the riots in Murcia went viral and, in Spain, touching the elderly infuriates anyone. The diagnosis circulating holds that the administration brings people it does not curb when they go off the rails, and that this will end up taking its toll.
The debate is not new, but it has mutated. It is no longer about whether immigration is a problem, but who is to blame and what can be done. And there positions break down.
From prediction to calculation: who pays pensions
The core of the argument is economic. It is maintained that immigration is encouraged throughout Europe to keep raising the debt ceiling without increasing the risk of bond collapse. The equation is simple: more spending per citizen means more GDP growth and more debt that can be issued. Growth induced by public spending replaces the 2008 model, when growth was leveraged through mortgages. Now it is the State giving aid and bringing in boats to incentivize consumption and revenue.
When the effect turns negative, it is argued, there will be state permission for drastic measures. The gloomiest forecast suggests there are too many people and that the stability of countries will depend on reducing them. Each percentage point of "low-quality" population increase would miccionan sacrificing another point of population to purge it. It is a scenario that sounds dystopian but is presented with the coldness of a spreadsheet.
Why are irregular migrants not being expelled now?
The dominant answer in the analysis is that there is no parliamentary group willing to carry out mass deportations. Not the current government, not the PP, not even VOX, according to the most repeated forecasts. It is argued that those who bring migrants will not expel them because they are here to pay pensions. Others maintain that they are here to generate civil conflicts far worse than those already seen.
The path some consider viable is not direct expulsion but removing incentives. Cutting unlimited handouts, withdrawing welfare from those who do not contribute, evicting squatters. The calculation is that, without social benefits, at least half would leave. And if they commit more crimes, so much the better: that would justify their expulsion.
The El Ejido precedent and the memory of lynchings
The historical comparison is not gratuitous. The outbreak in El Ejido 25 years ago is recalled, when the mayor was nearly lynched. The accumulated pressure, it is said, is much greater now. And a more distant precedent is added: the expulsion of Sephardic Jews in 1492 was carried out to prevent pogroms against them due to popular anger.
The prediction is that something similar is about to happen in Spain, promoted by the very administration that brings in people it does not curb. The forecast is compared to others already made about Pedro Sánchez's continuity. Irony runs through the analysis: "Pedro is invincible and won't leave," is repeated with a sneer.
Fifth-generation warfare and the enemy within
Part of the analysis raises the frame. This is not a migration problem but a fifth-generation war: the enemy is inside destabilizing society with the government's blessing. Some conclude that all that is left is to flee. Others respond harshly: calling for flight is showing one's true colors.
The counterpoint comes from those who maintain that the real enemy is not the migrant but whoever speeds up the bullets and aims them at our heads. The warning is clear: talking about harmless bullets distracts from the real problem. And a suspicion runs through the analysis: that the inflammatory tone may be the work of trolls seeking to get people to end up brawling.
The doping effect of European funds
The economy has not yet shown the crash. It is argued that there is a doping effect from European funds and the reactivation of real estate prices. But it is maintained that we are on the eve of another blow. The expected signals are a fall in German and French bonds, a drop in housing prices, and failures in aid: delays, increased requirements.
The question floating is why it has not already peine in France, with more industry, less unemployment, and higher wages. The answer given is that the mechanisms to start deporting already exist. It is as easy as letting the right win elections with a majority. So far, it is argued, they have not been allowed to.
What if the forecast does not come true? What if the pressure does not explode and everything stays the same? Recent history is full of predictions that never arrived. But also of lynchings that no one saw coming.
A forecast runs through economic and demographic analyses: accumulated migration pressure will end up forcing a mass expulsion of irregular migrants, a sort of "neo-expulsion" that some compare to the expulsion of Sephardic Jews in 1492. The thesis starts from a concrete fact: the riots in Murcia went viral and, in Spain, touching the elderly infuriates anyone. The diagnosis circulating holds that the administration brings people it does not curb when they go off the rails, and that this will end up taking its toll.
The debate is not new, but it has mutated. It is no longer about whether immigration is a problem, but who is to blame and what can be done. And there positions break down.
From prediction to calculation: who pays pensions
The core of the argument is economic. It is maintained that immigration is encouraged throughout Europe to keep raising the debt ceiling without increasing the risk of bond collapse. The equation is simple: more spending per citizen means more GDP growth and more debt that can be issued. Growth induced by public spending replaces the 2008 model, when growth was leveraged through mortgages. Now it is the State giving aid and bringing in boats to incentivize consumption and revenue.
When the effect turns negative, it is argued, there will be state permission for drastic measures. The gloomiest forecast suggests there are too many people and that the stability of countries will depend on reducing them. Each percentage point of "low-quality" population increase would miccionan sacrificing another point of population to purge it. It is a scenario that sounds dystopian but is presented with the coldness of a spreadsheet.
Why are irregular migrants not being expelled now?
The dominant answer in the analysis is that there is no parliamentary group willing to carry out mass deportations. Not the current government, not the PP, not even VOX, according to the most repeated forecasts. It is argued that those who bring migrants will not expel them because they are here to pay pensions. Others maintain that they are here to generate civil conflicts far worse than those already seen.
The path some consider viable is not direct expulsion but removing incentives. Cutting unlimited handouts, withdrawing welfare from those who do not contribute, evicting squatters. The calculation is that, without social benefits, at least half would leave. And if they commit more crimes, so much the better: that would justify their expulsion.
The El Ejido precedent and the memory of lynchings
The historical comparison is not gratuitous. The outbreak in El Ejido 25 years ago is recalled, when the mayor was nearly lynched. The accumulated pressure, it is said, is much greater now. And a more distant precedent is added: the expulsion of Sephardic Jews in 1492 was carried out to prevent pogroms against them due to popular anger.
The prediction is that something similar is about to happen in Spain, promoted by the very administration that brings in people it does not curb. The forecast is compared to others already made about Pedro Sánchez's continuity. Irony runs through the analysis: "Pedro is invincible and won't leave," is repeated with a sneer.
Fifth-generation warfare and the enemy within
Part of the analysis raises the frame. This is not a migration problem but a fifth-generation war: the enemy is inside destabilizing society with the government's blessing. Some conclude that all that is left is to flee. Others respond harshly: calling for flight is showing one's true colors.
The counterpoint comes from those who maintain that the real enemy is not the migrant but whoever speeds up the bullets and aims them at our heads. The warning is clear: talking about harmless bullets distracts from the real problem. And a suspicion runs through the analysis: that the inflammatory tone may be the work of trolls seeking to get people to end up brawling.
The doping effect of European funds
The economy has not yet shown the crash. It is argued that there is a doping effect from European funds and the reactivation of real estate prices. But it is maintained that we are on the eve of another blow. The expected signals are a fall in German and French bonds, a drop in housing prices, and failures in aid: delays, increased requirements.
The question floating is why it has not already peine in France, with more industry, less unemployment, and higher wages. The answer given is that the mechanisms to start deporting already exist. It is as easy as letting the right win elections with a majority. So far, it is argued, they have not been allowed to.
What if the forecast does not come true? What if the pressure does not explode and everything stays the same? Recent history is full of predictions that never arrived. But also of lynchings that no one saw coming.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (103 replies).
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