Vox proposes deporting immigrants to cut housing costs, Ibex says no

Vox proposes deporting immigrants to cut housing costs, Ibex says no

Can housing be made cheaper by expelling 1.5 million people? Vox's economic spokesman, José María Figaredo, put it exactly that way at a private lunch with executives from Ibex companies and major real estate firms on September 10. The event was organised by the Instituto de Estudios Económicos, the CEOE's think tank. The hosts' response, according to several sources familiar with the meeting: perplexity and a flat no to the party's flagship measure against housing prices.

What Vox proposed at the lunch with big business

Around the table sat executives from companies such as Santander, Iberdrola and Mercadona, representatives of construction firms grouped in Seopan, electricity associations, fund managers, private equity, real estate agents and several economists. Figaredo advocated incentivising construction with "much more private supply", but with a prior step he presented as non-negotiable: "reduce demand". And how to reduce it? By expelling from the country a large part of the migrant population that has arrived in recent years. "With 1.5 million fewer immigrants, there would be less pressure on housing", he said, adding two side effects: less pressure on public services and better prospects for "the price and availability" of flats. At the same lunch he asked for help to "improve urban planning procedures" and called for "ideas" from companies for his economic deregulation programme.

Vox's later version: 1.5 million, 10 or 100,000

The party's transcript differs from that of its hosts. Vox sources maintain that what Figaredo said was that if 1.5 million people continue to enter each year, it will be impossible to meet housing demand. "Not even in our wildest dreams", they clarify. What is not clarified is the substance: the party declares itself in favour of mass deportation of those who "come to commit crimes", "come to live off subsidies" or "do not integrate into our culture". And there the figure ceases to be a figure: "It will be 1.5 million, 10 or 100,000. We have no reference". In other words, a range, not a plan.

Why the real estate sector thinks the diagnosis doesn't add up

Here came the first clash. The executives who know the residential and financial market best warned that "regulated immigration in our country is essential" and that the housing problem does not allow simplifications. One executive present summed it up bluntly: "And the problem dates back to 2009, when private housing was paralysed". Figaredo was also warned that curbing foreign purchases would be a mistake, because there is foreign capital that supports domestic jobs. The equation fewer people, more flats does not fit with anything these sectors have been pointing out for years on the supply side.

How many homes are missing in Spain?

About 90,000 homes built per year against more than 200,000 new families. That is the imbalance that a representative of the construction industry put on the table and that turns the debate into something else. Each year more households are created than homes are built, so the deficit keeps growing instead of closing. The Banco de España already speaks of a mismatch of more than 700,000 homes. Against that backdrop, the thesis that prices rise because of migrant demand and not because of a lack of new construction holds up poorly. The full calculation, item by item, is what makes clear the size of the hole.

How much population has entered Spain since 2018

Figaredo brought his own figure to the meal: "7.8 million people have entered Spain since 2018". His conclusion is that Spanish economic growth is being supported by adding population and that the model should shift to "growing via industry and efficiency, not population". The figures the press has been handling since May 2023 paint sustained demographic pressure: some 150,000 net residents of foreign origin per quarter —a city the size of Salamanca every three months— and more than 17 million residents of foreign origin. For the party, the correlation with prices is obvious. For the financial sector, the main cause remains the gap between new households and completed homes.

The political problem: "we don't know how much our shares will be worth"

Figaredo did not specify how this programme would fit into a hypothetical government with the PP. His response was that they cannot yet agree an economic programme because it will depend on the weight of their seats: "We still don't know how much our shares will be worth in the next government coalition". Translated: the programme is chopped up according to the number of MPs. He also mentioned the grandchildren law and its possible influence on the 2027 election result, and put on the table an income tax cut that the PP has not dared to promise.

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A party that promises a hard line on immigration and asks business leaders for "ideas" to deregulate should not be surprised when business leaders give it a taste of its own medicine: the first idea is not to touch their workforce. The only figure nobody disputed at that lunch is the 700,000 homes that are missing.